Deck 7: Forecasting

Question 1

If the sales forecaster at Dino Croc Inc.-before launching a new game-decides to use the method of historical analogy to obtain a forecast,he/she should ________.

A)note the behavior of the company's current customers while they purchase a gaming accessory
B)note the response of similar previous games to marketing campaigns and use the responses as a basis to predict how the new marketing campaign might fare
C)request a panel of gamers-whose identities should be kept confidential from one another-to respond to a sequence of questionnaires
D)use a brainstorming session among a group of gamers to draw new ideas

Answer 1

note the response of similar previous games to marketing campaigns and use the responses as a basis to predict how the new marketing campaign might fare

Question 2

What is the gradual shift in the value of the time series known as?

A)a trend
B)a coordinate
C)a weight
D)a smoothing constant

Answer 2

a trend

Question 3

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches,called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below.The value of k is set at 2.
For the given data,the value of the root mean square error is ________.

A)9.25
B)7.36
C)54.13
D)21.10

Answer 3

7.36

Question 4

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches,called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below.The value of k is set at 2.
Using the given data,calculate the value of the mean absolute deviation.

A)7.25
B)54.13
C)9.36
D)21.10

Question 5

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches,called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below.The value of k is set at 2.
For the given data,identify the value of the mean absolute percentage error.

A)9.25
B)7.36
C)54.13
D)21.10

Question 6

In the context of time series,a cyclical effect differs from a seasonal effect in that the cyclical effect ________.

A)shows a gradual shift in the time series
B)does not show a gradual shift in the time series
C)relates to much longer-term behavior
D)relates to much shorter-term behavior

Question 7

The data for the number of guitars sold for the past 6 weeks are 25 units,20 units,25 units,25 units,20 units,and 18 units respectively.The time series appears to be relatively stable,without trend,seasonal,or cyclical effects; thus,a moving average model would be appropriate.Setting k = 3 the three-period moving average forecast for week 7 is ________.

A)18 units
B)21 units
C)25 units
D)19 units

Question 8

Given: A_t = the actual value of the time series at time t,F_t = the forecast value for time t,and n = the number of forecast values.Identify the formula used to calculate the mean absolute percentage error.

A)MAPE = × 100
B)MAPE = × × 100
C)MAPE = × 100
D)MAPE = × 100

Question 9

The data for the number of action figures sold for the past 6 weeks are 25 units,20 units,25 units,25 units,20 units,and 18 units respectively.If 50% weightage is given to week 6,30% weightage to week 5,and 20% weightage to week 4,what is the three-period weighted moving average forecast for week 7?

A)20 units
B)18 units
C)25 units
D)21 units

Question 10

If A_t is the actual value of the time series at time t,F_t is the forecast value for time t,and n is the number of forecast values,the formula used to calculate the root mean square of errors is ________.

A)RMSE =
B)RMSE =
C)RMSE =
D)RMSE =

Question 11

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches,called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below.The value of k is set at 2.
Using the given data,determine the value of the mean square error.

A)7.25
B)9.36
C)54.13
D)21.10

Question 12

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches,called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below.The value of k is set at 2.
For the given data,identify the number of forecast values.

A)2
B)3
C)4
D)5

Question 13

A(n)________ is a stream of historical data.

A)index
B)time series
C)irrational number
D)orthopole

Question 14

Given: A_t = the actual value of the time series at time t,F_t = the forecast value for time t,and n = the number of forecast values.Identify the formula used to calculate the mean absolute deviation.

A)_{MAD =}
B)MAD =
C)MAD =
D)MAD =

Question 15

If the sales forecaster at Dex-Starr Inc.-before launching a new 12-string guitar-decides to use the Delphi method to obtain a forecast,he/she should ________.

A)note the behavior of the company's current customers while they purchase guitars from the current product line
B)note the response of similar 12-string guitars to marketing campaigns and use the responses as a basis to predict how the new marketing campaign might fare
C)mail out questionnaires to a panel of expert guitarists whose identities are known only to the forecaster
D)use a brainstorming session among a group of metal guitarists to draw new ideas

Question 16

Which of the following uses a panel of experts,whose identities are typically kept confidential from one another,to respond to a sequence of questionnaires?

A)the Simple Moving average method
B)the method of Historical Analogy
C)the Delphi method of forecasting
D)the Simple Exponential Smoothing method

Question 17

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches,called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below.The value of k is set at 2.
For the data given above,the forecast for week 5 is ________.

A)33 units
B)25 units
C)30 units
D)35 units

Question 18

Time-series models ________.

A)assume that whatever forces have influenced sales in the recent past will continue into the near future
B)assume that forecasts are seldom developed by extrapolating historical data into the future
C)include independent variables like,demand conditions and the current economy state that help in forecasting
D)are also known as judgmental forecasting models

Question 19

If A_t is the actual value of the time series at time t,F_t is the forecast value for time t,and n is the number of forecast values,the formula used to calculate the mean square of errors is ________.

A)_{MSE =}
B)MSE =
C)MSE =
D)MSE =

Question 20

The Delphi method of forecasting ________.

A)obtains forecasts through a comparative analysis with a previous situation
B)uses measures that are believed to influence the behavior of a variable that the researcher wishes to forecast
C)uses a single measure that weights multiple indicators and provides a measure of overall expectation
D)promotes unbiased exchanges of ideas and discussion and usually results in some convergence of opinion

Question 21

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
From the data given above,the sales forecast for the year 2008 (in 000s)is ________.

A)40.72 units
B)47.34 units
C)52.67 units
D)62.53 units

Question 22

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details of a particular game are shown below.The value of k is set at 3.
For the given data,what is the value of the root mean square error?

A)600.33
B)24.50
C)21.67
D)18.57

Question 23

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.
Using the given data,determine the value of the root mean square error.

A)9.15
B)26.95
C)0.87
D)6.70

Question 24

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.
Using the given data,calculate the value of the mean absolute deviation.

A)26.95
B)9.19
C)6.65
D)0.87

Question 25

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
From the data given above,what is the forecast-in 000s-for the year 2003?

A)41 units
B)33 units
C)66 units
D)49 units

Question 26

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
From the data given above,the forecast for the year 2005 (in 000s)is ________.

A)39.60 units
B)40.72 units
C)47.34 units
D)52.67 units

Question 27

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
From the data given above,determine the number of forecast values.

A)3
B)4
C)5
D)6

Question 28

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details of a particular game are shown below.The value of k is set at 3.
For the data given above,the forecast for week 7 is ________.

A)112 units
B)211 units
C)121 units
D)82 units

Question 29

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.
Using the given data,calculate the value of the mean square error.

A)5.15
B)44.95
C)9.19
D)0.87

Question 30

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
From the data given above,what is the forecast-in 000s-for the year 2004?

A)39.60 units
B)40.72 units
C)47.34 units
D)52.67 units

Question 31

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details of a particular game are shown below.The value of k is set at 3.
For the given data,identify the number of forecast values.

A)2
B)3
C)4
D)5

Question 32

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.
The value of α in the simple exponential smoothing model F_{t + 1} = (1 - α)F_t + αA_t lies between ________.

A)1 and 2
B)-1 and 0
C)0 and 1
D)-1 and 1

Question 33

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details of a particular game are shown below.The value of k is set at 3.
Using the given data,calculate the value of the mean absolute deviation.

A)600.33
B)24.50
C)21.67
D)18.57

Question 34

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.
In the simple exponential smoothing model F_{t + 1} = (1 - α)F_t + αA_t,the exponential smoothing constant is ________.

A)F_t+1
B)α
C)A_t
D)F_t

Question 35

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details of a particular game are shown below.The value of k is set at 3.
For the given data,the value of the mean absolute percentage error is ________.

A)600.33
B)24.50
C)18.57
D)21.67

Question 36

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.
From the given data,determine the forecast for the 5^th month.

A)35.80 units
B)58.80 units
C)42.20 units
D)24.20 units

Question 37

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The sales details of a particular game are shown below.The value of k is set at 3.
For the given data,what is the value of the mean square error?

A)600.33
B)24.50
C)21.67
D)18.57

Question 38

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
From the data given above,what is the forecast-in 000s-for the year 2006?

A)39.60 units
B)40.72 units
C)47.34 units
D)52.67 units

Question 39

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.
For the data given above,the number of forecast values is ________.

A)2
B)3
C)4
D)5

Question 40

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales of a gaming console for the first 6 months of the year 2011.
The forecaster uses the weighted average model to determine the forecasts.He assumes a 40% weight for the most recent reading,30% weight for the second most recent reading,20% for the third most recent reading,and 10% for the fourth most recent reading.
For the given data,the value of the mean absolute percentage error is ________.

A)51.5
B)26.95
C)5.19
D)21.03

Question 41

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
From the data given above,what is the forecast-in 000s-for the year 2007?

A)39.60 units
B)40.72 units
C)47.34 units
D)52.67 units

Question 42

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future.
For the data given above,determine the regression equation.

A)y = 377.14x + 3,813.33
B)y = 3,813.33x + 377.14
C)y = 3,813.33x - 377.14
D)y = 377.14x - 3,813.33

Question 43

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future.
For the data given above,calculate the forecast value for the year 2006.

A)approximately 5,699 units
B)approximately 5,322 units
C)approximately 4,945 units
D)approximately 6,453 units

Question 44

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
Using the given data,determine the value of the root mean square error.

A)225.98
B)10.28
C)15.03
D)25.27

Question 45

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future.
For the data given above,determine the sales forecast for the year 2011.

A)approximately 8,339 units
B)approximately 9,338 units
C)approximately 3,398 units
D)approximately 6,453 units

Question 46

The Holt-Winters additive model is based on the equation ________.

A)F_{t + 1} = a_t + b_t + S_{t - s - 2}
B)F_{t + 1} = a_t + b_t + S_{t - s + 1}
C)F_{t + 1} = a_{t - 2} + b_t + S_{t - s - 2}
D)F_{t + 1} = a_t + b_{t -1} + S_{t - 2}

Question 47

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
For the given data,the value of the mean square error is ________.

A)225.98
B)10.28
C)15.03
D)25.27

Question 48

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future.
Using the given data,determine the value of MAPE.[Hint: Round the forecast values to 3 decimal places.]

A)10.14
B)81.87
C)1.00
D)16.51

Question 49

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
In the double exponential smoothing model F_t+k = a_t + b_tk,identify the value that signifies the level.

A)a_t
B)F_t+k
C)b_t
D)k

Question 50

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future.
For the data given above,what is the value of RMSE? [Hint: Round the forecast values to 3 decimal places.]

A)1,014,031.75
B)818.73
C)1,006.99
D)16.51

Question 51

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future.
For the data given above,identify the value of MAD.[Hint: Round the forecast values to 3 decimal places.]

A)1,014,031.75
B)818.73
C)1,006.99
D)16.51

Question 52

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
In the double exponential smoothing model F_t+k = a_t + b_tk,identify the value that signifies the trend.

A)a_t
B)F_t+k
C)k
D)b_t

Question 53

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
In the double exponential smoothing model F_t+k = a_t + b_tk,identify the value that signifies the slope.

A)a_t
B)F_t+k
C)b_t
D)k

Question 54

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future.
For the data given above,the forecast for the year 2003 is approximately close to ________.

A)5,699 units
B)5,322 units
C)4,945 units
D)6,076 units

Question 55

In the first-order autoregressive model Y_i = a₀ + a₁Y_i-1+ _i,identify the nonautocorrelated random error term.

A)a₀
B)_i
C)a₁
D)Y_i-1

Question 56

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
Using the given data,determine the value of the mean absolute deviation.

A)225.98
B)10.28
C)15.03
D)25.27

Question 57

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the industrial lathe sales from the years 2000-2005.The forecaster uses the regression method to determine the forecast for the future.
For the given data,the value of MSE is ________.[Hint: Round the forecast values to 3 decimal places.]

A)1,014,031.75
B)818.73
C)1,006.99
D)16.51

Question 58

If S_{t - s + k} is the seasonal factor for period t - s + k and s is the number of periods in a season,the seasonal multiplicative model can be written as ________.

A)F_{t + k} = (a_t + k)S_{t - s + k}
B)F_t = a_t S_{t - s + k}
C)F_t = a_{t +k} S_{t - s + k}
D)F_{t + k} = a_t S_{t - s + k}

Question 59

If S_{t - s + k} is the seasonal factor for period t - s + k and s is the number of periods in a season,the seasonal additive model can be written as ________.

A)F_{t + k} = a_t + S_{t - s + k}
B)F_t = a_t + S_{t - s + k}
C)F_t = a_{t + k} + S_{t - s + k}
D)F_{t + k} = (a_t + k)+ S_{t - s + k}

Question 60

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007.The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.
Using the given data,calculate the value of mean absolute percentage error.

A)12.56
B)10.28
C)15.03
D)25.27

Question 61

The Holt-Winters additive model differs from the Holt-Winters multiplicative model in that the Holt-Winters additive model ________.

A)is synonymous to the double exponential smoothing forecast model
B)is synonymous to the single exponential smoothing forecast model
C)applies to time series with relatively stable seasonality
D)applies to time series whose amplitude increases or decreases over time

Question 62

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week.
For the given data,determine the multiple regression equation.

A)Forecast = 6,879.27 + 724.10Week - 220.24Price/pound
B)Forecast = 724.10 + 6,879.27Week - 220.24Price/pound
C)Forecast = 724.10 + 220.24Week - 6,879.27Price/pound
D)Forecast = 6,879.27 + 220.24Week - 724.10Price/pound

Question 63

Jenny downloaded the company's umbrella sales for the past fiscal year to forecast the sales for the next fiscal year.Looking at the downloaded data set,she decided to use the Holt-Winters multiplicative model because the data set showed ________.

A)no trend and no seasonality
B)trend and seasonality
C)a trend and no seasonality
D)seasonality and no trend

Question 64

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week.
For the given data,the value of the mean square error is ________.

A)2,444,136.45
B)1,563.37
C)1,341.46
D)14.78

Question 65

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week.
For the given data,what is the value of mean absolute percentage error?

A)24.45
B)37.63
C)14.78
D)64.31

Question 66

The Holt-Winters multiplicative model is based on the equation ________.

A)F_{t + 1} = a_t (b_t + S_{t - s - 2})
B)F_{t + 1} = a_t (b_t + S_{t - s + 1})
C)F_{t + 1} = (a_t + b_t)S_{t - s + 1}
D)F_{t + 1} = (a_t + b_{t -1})S_{t - 2}

Question 67

Sue decided to use the double moving average model to forecast the game sales for the next week,after looking at the tabulated sales for the past twelve weeks.What exactly did she observe?

A)a time series with no trend and no seasonality
B)a time series with trend and seasonality
C)a time series with trend and no seasonality
D)a time series with seasonality and no trend

Question 68

Moving average and exponential smoothing models work best for stationary time series.

Question 69

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week.
If the price/pound of the vegetable sold on week 15 is $5,determine the forecast for week 15.

A)approximately 20,840 pounds
B)approximately 18,410 pounds
C)approximately 16,640 pounds
D)approximately 11,584 pounds

Question 70

If the given time series has a trend and no seasonality,the ________ is the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of the time series.

A)single exponential smoothing model
B)seasonal additive model
C)double moving average model
D)Holt-Winters multiplicative model

Question 71

A seasonal effect in a time series is relatively long-term effect compared to a cyclical effect.

Question 72

If the given time series has no trend and no seasonality,which of the following is the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of the time series?

A)the single moving average model
B)the seasonal additive model
C)the double exponential smoothing model
D)the Holt-Winters additive model

Question 73

In historical analogy,the forecast is obtained by using a panel of experts,whose identities are typically kept confidential from one another,to respond to a sequence of questionnaires.

Question 74

The Holt-Winters multiplicative model differs from the Holt-Winters additive model in that the Holt-Winters multiplicative model ________.

A)is synonymous to the double exponential smoothing forecast model
B)is synonymous to the single exponential smoothing forecast model
C)applies to time series with relatively stable seasonality
D)applies to time series whose amplitude increases or decreases over time

Question 75

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week.
Using the given data,determine the forecast for week 11.

A)approximately 10,840 pounds
B)approximately 8,410 pounds
C)approximately 12,753 pounds
D)approximately 11,585 pounds

Question 76

If the given time series exhibits seasonality but no trend,the ________ is the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of the time series.

A)single moving average model
B)seasonal multiplicative model
C)double exponential smoothing model
D)Holt-Winters additive model

Question 77

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week.
Using the given data,calculate the value of mean absolute deviation.

A)2,444,136.45
B)1,563.37
C)1,341.46
D)14.78

Question 78

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below shows the sales details of a kind of vegetable sold at a department store for each week.
For the given data,the value of the root mean square error is ________.

A)2,444,136.45
B)1,563.37
C)1,341.46
D)14.78

Question 79

A seasonal effect is one that repeats at fixed intervals of time,typically a year,month,week,or day.

Question 80

In the Delphi method,the forecast is obtained through a comparative analysis with a previous situation.