Deck 10: Snap Judgments:risks and Benefits of Heuristic Thinking

Question 1

The tendency to reactively accept without question an opinion expressed by a superior authority is called the ________ heuristic.
(a) power differential
(b) illusion of control
(c) optimistic bias
(d) anchoring with adjustment

Answer 1

A

Question 2

Which of the following is probably an expression of the influence of the Stereotyping Heuristic?
(a) "Brandon is a huge fan of the San Francisco Giants. If he sees anything at all with the SF Giant's logo on it, a shirt, a coffee cup, a banner, you know Brandon is going to want to buy it."
(b) "There is always another way to tweak the artwork this way or that. But we have to get the marketing materials to the conference soon. So I say that the design is good to go."
(c) "I never get a flu shot. When I was a kid I had a terrible infection and the doctor gave me a hypo of penicillin right in the butt. Wow did that hurt!"
(d) "This year two of the people in our office died. One was hit by a drunk driver last summer when he was out biking, and the other had a fatal heart attack while shoveling snow. We all worked in the same office, reported to the same boss, and both of them were about my age. Makes me not want to do anything that is physically exerting."
(e) "The prosecuting attorney pointed at the accused and said, 'For a man like him, raised in his religious culture, it is a huge dishonor if a wife is not totally subservient to her husband. That is how we know that the defendant is guilty of murder. I say that he is the one who beat his wife to death. His motive was that he thought she had somehow dishonored him."

Answer 2

E

Question 3

Which of the following is probably an expression of the influence of the Availability Heuristic?
(a) "Brandon is a huge fan of the San Francisco Giants. If he sees anything at all with the SF Giant's logo on it, a shirt, a coffee cup, a banner, you know Brandon is going to want to buy it."
(b) "There is always another way to tweak the artwork this way or that. But we have to get the marketing materials to the conference soon. So I say that the design is good to go."
(c) "I never get a flu shot. When I was a kid I had a terrible infection and the doctor gave me a hypo of penicillin right in the butt. Wow did that hurt!"
(d) "This year two of the people in our office died. One was hit by a drunk driver last summer when he was out biking, and the other had a fatal heart attack while shoveling snow. We all worked in the same office, reported to the same boss, and both of them were about my age. Makes me not want to do anything that is physically exerting."
(e) "The prosecuting attorney pointed at the accused and said, 'For a man like him, raised in his religious culture, it is a huge dishonor if a wife is not totally subservient to her husband. That is how we know that the defendant is guilty of murder. I say that he is the one who beat his wife to death. His motive was that he thought she had somehow dishonored him."

Answer 3

C

Question 4

Which cognitive heuristic involves estimating the likelihood of a given outcome based on how easy it is to imagine that outcome?
(a) representation
(b) temporizing
(c) affect
(d) simulation

Question 5

Which of the following is a characteristic of System-1 thinking?
(a) reactive
(b) analytical
(c) deliberative
(d) procedural

Question 6

What is the definition of System-2 Thinking?
(a) reactive thinking that relies heavily on situational cues, salient memories, and heuristic shortcuts to arrive quickly and confidently at judgments
(b) reactive thinking that is useful for recalling salient memories and fully supports heuristic thinking at its highest level
(c) reflective critical thinking that is useful for judgments in unfamiliar situations, for processing abstract concepts, and for deliberating when there is time for more comprehensive consideration
(d) reflective thinking that relies heavily on preconceived notions and is helpful for executing well-trained responses to expected problems

Question 7

Which cognitive heuristic involves the natural tendency to underestimate one's risks and to overestimate one's ability to manage dangerous situations?
(a) illusion of control
(b) loss and risk aversion
(c) optimistic bias
(d) elimination by aspect

Question 8

Which of these dichotomies best characterizes the relationship between System-1 and System-2 thinking?
(a) Head vs. Heart
(b) Emotion vs. Reason
(c) Warm vs. Cold
(d) Feeling vs. Judgment
(e) Reactive vs. Reflective

Question 9

Which of the following is probably an expression of the influence of the Satisficing Heuristic?
(a) "Brandon is a huge fan of the San Francisco Giants. If he sees anything at all with the SF Giant's logo on it, a shirt, a coffee cup, a banner, you know Brandon is going to want to buy it."
(b) "There is always another way to tweak the artwork this way or that. But we have to get the marketing materials to the conference soon. So I say that the design is good to go."
(c) "I never get a flu shot. When I was a kid I had a terrible infection and the doctor gave me a hypo of penicillin right in the butt. Wow did that hurt!"
(d) "This year two of the people in our office died. One was hit by a drunk driver last summer when he was out biking, and the other had a fatal heart attack while shoveling snow. We all worked in the same office, reported to the same boss, and both of them were about my age. Makes me not want to do anything that is physically exerting."
(e) "The prosecuting attorney pointed at the accused and said, 'For a man like him, raised in his religious culture, it is a huge dishonor if a wife is not totally subservient to her husband. That is how we know that the defendant is guilty of murder. I say that he is the one who beat his wife to death. His motive was that he thought she had somehow dishonored him."

Question 10

Heuristic thinking is the tendency, which is at times quite useful, of relying on highly efficient and generally reliable ________.
(a) cognitive shortcuts when reaching a decision
(b) experts to provide reliable guidance
(c) arguments to demonstrate which option is superior
(d) sets of written rules to describe the correct approach

Question 11

On a chilly winter day Michael was walking by a kiosk that sold vacation packages to the Bahamas. There were pictures of sunny skies and beautiful beaches. He imagined himself on those warm and inviting beaches. The next thing he knew, he had purchased a five-night cruise ticket to Bahamas for a mid-winter getaway. Which of the following heuristics triggered Michael's decision to buy the ticket?
(a) "Us vs. Them"
(b) simulation
(c) availability
(d) power differential

Question 12

When we share our reflective interpretations, analyses, evaluations, and inferences, we are offering explanations. Because of this, critical thinking can be described as ________.
(a) an engine of reactive System-1 thinking
(b) unrelated to decision making
(c) self-regulated System-2 thinking
(d) an irrational driver of associational decision making

Question 13

Which of the following statements is true of the System-1 decision making?
(a) It is useful for deliberating when there is time for planning.
(b) It is reflective, analytical, and procedural.
(c) It is always correct.
(d) It is quick and reactive.

Question 14

What is the definition of System-1 Thinking?
(a) reactive thinking that relies heavily on situational cues, salient memories, and heuristic shortcuts to arrive quickly and confidently at judgments
(b) reflective critical thinking that is useful for judgments in unfamiliar situations, for processing abstract concepts, and for deliberating when there is time for more comprehensive consideration
(c) reactive thinking that is useful for recalling salient memories and fully supports heuristic thinking at its highest level
(d) reflective thinking that relies heavily on preconceived notions and is helpful for executing well-trained responses to expected problems

Question 15

Which of the following is probably an expression of the influence of the Stereotyping Heuristic?
(a) "There are a couple of city cops across the street on foot patrol. Just a couple more bullies in blue uniforms looking to roust some poor homeless dude or bust a couple of brown or black kids with a trumped up drug possession charge."
(b) "It's one thing for us to serve and protect. That's our oath as police officers. But, hey, when you're out on the streets you got to protect yourself. I mean, it's a combat zone out there. We got stick together, cover each other's six. You know what I mean."
(c) "When I was just going off to college I used to talk with my Dad about politics. He said the best approach was always to be conservative. So that's what I am."
(d) "There was a time when I thought that the reason you didn't do your fair share of the housework was because you did not realize that I was your partner, not your mother. But now that you occasionally do the shopping, the laundry, and help with the dinner dishes I realize that you must not think I'm your mother but your maid instead."
(e) "We did everything right. Everything! It was a useful product. Well designed and well built. We used an outstanding marketing approach. It is just that nobody wanted to buy it. That's not our fault. Nobody can predict what the public will like. The market just was not ready for what we were offering. Nothing we could do about that."

Question 16

Which of the following is probably an expression of the influence of the Representation Heuristic?
(a) "Brandon is a huge fan of the San Francisco Giants. If he sees anything at all with the SF Giant's logo on it, a shirt, a coffee cup, a banner, you know Brandon is going to want to buy it."
(b) "There is always another way to tweak the artwork this way or that. But we have to get the marketing materials to the conference soon. So I say that the design is good to go."
(c) "I never get a flu shot. When I was a kid I had a terrible infection and the doctor gave me a hypo of penicillin right in the butt. Wow did that hurt!"
(d) "This year two of the people in our office died. One was hit by a drunk driver last summer when he was out biking, and the other had a fatal heart attack while shoveling snow. We all worked in the same office, reported to the same boss, and both of them were about my age. Makes me not want to do anything that is physically exerting."
(e) "The prosecuting attorney pointed at the accused and said, 'For a man like him, raised in his religious culture, it is a huge dishonor if a wife is not totally subservient to her husband. That is how we know that the defendant is guilty of murder. I say that he is the one who beat his wife to death. His motive was that he thought she had somehow dishonored him."

Question 17

The ________ heuristic involves simplification of decisions by treating remotely probable outcomes as if they were impossible for all practical purposes.
(a) elimination of aspect
(b) all or nothing
(c) anchoring with adjustment
(d) stereotyping

Question 18

Which of the following is probably an expression of the influence of the Us vs. Them Heuristic?
(a) "There are a couple of city cops across the street on foot patrol. Just a couple more bullies in blue uniforms looking to roust some poor homeless dude or bust a couple of brown or black kids with a trumped up drug possession charge."
(b) "It's one thing for us to serve and protect. That's our oath as police officers. But, hey, when you're out on the streets you got to protect yourself. I mean, it's a combat zone out there. We got stick together, cover each other's six. You know what I mean."
(c) "When I was just going off to college I used to talk with my Dad about politics. He said the best approach was always to be conservative. So that's what I am."
(d) "There was a time when I thought that the reason you didn't do your fair share of the housework was because you did not realize that I was your partner, not your mother. But now that you occasionally do the shopping, the laundry, and help with the dinner dishes I realize that you must not think I'm your mother but your maid instead."
(e) "We did everything right. Everything! It was a useful product. Well designed and well built. We used an outstanding marketing approach. It is just that nobody wanted to buy it. That's not our fault. Nobody can predict what the public will like. The market just was not ready for what we were offering. Nothing we could do about that."

Question 19

Which of the following is probably an expression of the influence of the Affect Heuristic?
(a) "Brandon is a huge fan of the San Francisco Giants. If he sees anything at all with the SF Giant's logo on it, a shirt, a coffee cup, a banner, you know Brandon is going to want to buy it."
(b) "There is always another way to tweak the artwork this way or that. But we have to get the marketing materials to the conference soon. So I say that the design is good to go."
(c) "I never get a flu shot. When I was a kid I had a terrible infection and the doctor gave me a hypo of penicillin right in the butt. Wow did that hurt!"
(d) "This year two of the people in our office died. One was hit by a drunk driver last summer when he was out biking, and the other had a fatal heart attack while shoveling snow. We all worked in the same office, reported to the same boss, and both of them were about my age. Makes me not want to do anything that is physically exerting."
(e) "The prosecuting attorney pointed at the accused and said, 'For a man like him, raised in his religious culture, it is a huge dishonor if a wife is not totally subservient to her husband. That is how we know that the defendant is guilty of murder. I say that he is the one who beat his wife to death. His motive was that he thought she had somehow dishonored him."

Question 20

Which of the following is probably an expression of the influence of the Power Differential Heuristic?
(a) "There are a couple of city cops across the street on foot patrol. Just a couple more bullies in blue uniforms looking to roust some poor homeless dude or bust a couple of brown or black kids with a trumped up drug possession charge."
(b) "It's one thing for us to serve and protect. That's our oath as police officers. But, hey, when you're out on the streets you got to protect yourself. I mean, it's a combat zone out there. We got stick together, cover each other's six. You know what I mean."
(c) "When I was just going off to college I used to talk with my Dad about politics. He said the best approach was always to be conservative. So that's what I am."
(d) "There was a time when I thought that the reason you didn't do your fair share of the housework was because you did not realize that I was your partner, not your mother. But now that you occasionally do the shopping, the laundry, and help with the dinner dishes I realize that you must not think I'm your mother but your maid instead."
(e) "We did everything right. Everything! It was a useful product. Well designed and well built. We used an outstanding marketing approach. It is just that nobody wanted to buy it. That's not our fault. Nobody can predict what the public will like. The market just was not ready for what we were offering. Nothing we could do about that."

Question 21

What possible error in judgment can come about by the misapplication of the Anchoring with Adjustment Heuristic?

Question 22

What possible error in judgment can come about by the misapplication of the Temporizing Heuristic?

Question 23

The________ heuristic is the tendency to remember successful events as being the result of the decisions one made and actions that one took and past failures as having resulted from bad luck or someone else's mistakes.

Question 24

Define the affect heuristic.

Question 25

Critical thinking is self-regulated System-1 thinking.

Question 26

Because it is considered more useful for addressing novel and complex problems in a reflective and methodical way, System-2 is the mode of reasoned, informed, and thoughtful problem solving and decision making that a broad undergraduate liberal arts and sciences education cultivates.

Question 27

What possible error in judgment can come about by the misapplication of the Power Differential Heuristic?

Question 28

The System-2 thinking approach to decision making is reactive, instinctive, quick, and holistic.

Question 29

Which of the following is probably an expression of the influence of the Hindsight Bias?
(a) "There are a couple of city cops across the street on foot patrol. Just a couple more bullies in blue uniforms looking to roust some poor homeless dude or bust a couple of brown or black kids with a trumped up drug possession charge."
(b) "It's one thing for us to serve and protect. That's our oath as police officers. But, hey, when you're out on the streets you got to protect yourself. I mean, it's a combat zone out there. We got stick together, cover each other's six. You know what I mean."
(c) "When I was just going off to college I used to talk with my Dad about politics. He said the best approach was always to be conservative. So that's what I am."
(d) "There was a time when I thought that the reason you didn't do your fair share of the housework was because you did not realize that I was your partner, not your mother. But now that you occasionally do the shopping, the laundry, and help with the dinner dishes I realize that you must not think I'm your mother but your maid instead."
(e) "We did everything right. Everything! It was a useful product. Well designed and well built. We used an outstanding marketing approach. It is just that nobody wanted to buy it. That's not our fault. Nobody can predict what the public will like. The market just was not ready for what we were offering. Nothing we could do about that."

Question 30

Explain how critical thinking is self-regulated System-2 thinking.

Question 31

Which of the following is probably an expression of the influence of the Anchoring with Adjustment?
(a) "There are a couple of city cops across the street on foot patrol. Just a couple more bullies in blue uniforms looking to roust some poor homeless dude or bust a couple of brown or black kids with a trumped up drug possession charge."
(b) "It's one thing for us to serve and protect. That's our oath as police officers. But, hey, when you're out on the streets you got to protect yourself. I mean, it's a combat zone out there. We got stick together, cover each other's six. You know what I mean."
(c) "When I was just going off to college I used to talk with my Dad about politics. He said the best approach was always to be conservative. So that's what I am."
(d) "There was a time when I thought that the reason you didn't do your fair share of the housework was because you did not realize that I was your partner, not your mother. But now that you occasionally do the shopping, the laundry, and help with the dinner dishes I realize that you must not think I'm your mother but your maid instead."
(e) "We did everything right. Everything! It was a useful product. Well designed and well built. We used an outstanding marketing approach. It is just that nobody wanted to buy it. That's not our fault. Nobody can predict what the public will like. The market just was not ready for what we were offering. Nothing we could do about that."

Question 32

What possible error in judgment can come about by the misapplication of the Loss and Risk Aversion Heuristic?

Question 33

Describe the representation heuristic.

Question 34

The________ heuristic is the tendency simplifying decisions by treating remote probabilities as if they were not even possibilities.

Question 35

What possible error in judgment can come about by the misapplication of the Simulation Heuristic?

Question 36

Define the term heuristic thinking.

Question 37

What possible error in judgment can come about by the misapplication of the Elimination by Aspect Heuristic?

Question 38

Define the optimistic bias heuristic.

Question 39

What possible error in judgment can come about by the misapplication of the Satisficing Heuristic?

Question 40

What possible error in judgment can come about by the misapplication of the Association Heuristic?

Question 41

Compare System-1 and System-2 thinking approaches to human decision making and discuss the conflict of the two systems.

Question 42

Describe the risks and benefits of the natural human tendency to be risk or loss averse.

Question 43

The________ heuristic is the tendency to make decisions that maintain the status quo in order to avoid risk and loss.