تكلم مع الذكاء الاصطناعي
Deck 24: Decision Making and Risk
ملء الشاشة (f)
سؤال
A farm owner has three possible hiring decisions.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.If the probability of a good growing season is 0.75.What is the expected value of hiring teenagers?
A)$62,500
B)$52,500
C)$46,250
D)$12,990
E)None of the above.
A)$62,500
B)$52,500
C)$46,250
D)$12,990
E)None of the above.
سؤال
A company is considering three alternatives (action) to deal with this extra work load as shown below (in $100,000).If the likelihoods of easy, moderately difficult and extremely difficult are 0.2, 0.4 and 0.4, respectively, the best decision according to the expected value approach is to ________________________ .
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)outsource if the file modifications are extremely difficult
E)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)outsource if the file modifications are extremely difficult
E)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
سؤال
سؤال
A company is considering three alternatives (action) to deal with this extra work load as shown below (in $100,000).Using the minimin approach, the company should ________________________ .
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)outsource if the file modifications are extremely difficult
E)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)outsource if the file modifications are extremely difficult
E)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
سؤال
A company is considering three alternatives to deal with extra work load as shown below (in $100,000).If the likelihoods of easy, moderately difficult and extremely difficult are 0.2, 0.4 and 0.4, respectively, the expected cost of hiring temporary staff is ________________________ .
A)3.04
B)2.94
C)1.99
D)3.45
E)None of the above.
A)3.04
B)2.94
C)1.99
D)3.45
E)None of the above.
سؤال
سؤال
Using the payoff table ($ million) is shown below for two possible actions, if the probabilities for future mortgage interest rates going up, staying about the same, and going down are 0.35, 0.50 and 0.15, respectively, the best decision according to the expected value approach is to build ________________________ .
A)the active retirement community if interest rates go down
B)the active retirement community
C)townhouses/condominiums if interest rates go down
D)townhouses/condominiums
E)either the active retirement community or townhouses/condominiums
A)the active retirement community if interest rates go down
B)the active retirement community
C)townhouses/condominiums if interest rates go down
D)townhouses/condominiums
E)either the active retirement community or townhouses/condominiums
سؤال
سؤال
A land owner is considering two actions and mortgage interest rates will affect his outcomes.The payoff table ($ million) is shown below.According to the maximin approach, the land owner should build ________________________ .
A)the active retirement community if interest rates go down
B)the active retirement community
C)townhouses/condominiums if interest rates go down
D)townhouses/condominiums
E)either the active retirement community or townhouses/condominiums
A)the active retirement community if interest rates go down
B)the active retirement community
C)townhouses/condominiums if interest rates go down
D)townhouses/condominiums
E)either the active retirement community or townhouses/condominiums
سؤال
A company is considering three alternatives to deal with extra work load (in $100,000) as shown below.If the likelihoods of easy, moderately difficult and extremely difficult are 0.2, 0.4 and 0.4, respectively, what is the expected value (in $100,000) with perfect information?
A)2.68
B)2.94
C)0.26
D)0.16
E)None of the above.
A)2.68
B)2.94
C)0.26
D)0.16
E)None of the above.
سؤال
A farm owner has three possible hiring decisions.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.If the probability of a good growing season is 0.75.Based on the expected value approach, the farmer should ________________________ .
A)hire migrant workers if the growing season is good
B)hire teenagers
C)do not do any extra hiring
D)hire migrant workers
E)do not do any extra hiring if the growing season is bad
A)hire migrant workers if the growing season is good
B)hire teenagers
C)do not do any extra hiring
D)hire migrant workers
E)do not do any extra hiring if the growing season is bad
سؤال
A farm owner has three possible hiring decisions.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.If the probability of a good growing season is 0.75.The return to risk ratio for hiring migrant workers is ________________________ .
A)8.40
B)4.05
C)2.89
D)0.346
E)None of the above.
A)8.40
B)4.05
C)2.89
D)0.346
E)None of the above.
سؤال
24.7 Estimating Variation.A farm owner has three possible hiring decisions.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.If the probability of a good growing season is 0.75.The standard deviation in payoffs for hiring migrant workers is ________________________ .
A)$21,651
B)$12,990
C)$5495
D)$2500
E)None of the above.
A)$21,651
B)$12,990
C)$5495
D)$2500
E)None of the above.
سؤال
A farm owner could hire either migrant workers or local teenagers who need summer employment.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.Using the maximax approach, the farmer would ________________________ .
A)hire migrant workers if the growing season is good
B)hire teenagers
C)not do any extra hiring
D)hire migrant workers
E)not do any extra hiring if the growing season is good
A)hire migrant workers if the growing season is good
B)hire teenagers
C)not do any extra hiring
D)hire migrant workers
E)not do any extra hiring if the growing season is good
سؤال
24.4 The Expected Value of an Action.Using the payoff table ($ million) is shown below, if the probabilities for future mortgage interest rates going up, staying about the same, and going down are .35, .50 and .15, respectively, what is the expected value for building an active retirement community?
A)$2.5 million
B)$3.625 million
C)$2.75 million
D)$875,000
E)None of the above
A)$2.5 million
B)$3.625 million
C)$2.75 million
D)$875,000
E)None of the above
سؤال
A farm owner has three possible hiring decisions.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.If the probability of a good growing season is 0.75.If the farmer is risk averse, he would ________________________ .
A)hire migrant workers
B)hire teenagers
C)do not do any extra hiring
D)make the same decision as he would using the expected value approach
E)give up farming
A)hire migrant workers
B)hire teenagers
C)do not do any extra hiring
D)make the same decision as he would using the expected value approach
E)give up farming
سؤال
A company is considering three alternatives (action) to deal with this extra work load as shown below (in $100,000).Using the minimin approach, the company should ________________________ .
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
E)hire temporary staff if the file modifications are moderately difficult
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
E)hire temporary staff if the file modifications are moderately difficult
سؤال
Using the payoff table ($ million) is shown below, if the probabilities for future mortgage interest rates going up, staying about the same, and going down are 0.35, 0.50 and 0.15, respectively, the expected value with perfect information is ________________________ .
A)$2.5 million
B)$3.625 million
C)$2.75 million
D)$875,000
E)None of the above.
A)$2.5 million
B)$3.625 million
C)$2.75 million
D)$875,000
E)None of the above.
سؤال
A company is considering three alternatives to deal with extra work load as shown below (in $100,000).If the likelihoods of easy, moderately difficult and extremely difficult are 0.2, 0.4 and 0.4, respectively, the standard deviation in costs associated with outsourcing is ________________________ .
A)0.37
B)0.95
C)1.11
D)1.23
E)None of the above.
A)0.37
B)0.95
C)1.11
D)1.23
E)None of the above.
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العب
ملء الشاشة (f)
Deck 24: Decision Making and Risk
1
A farm owner has three possible hiring decisions.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.If the probability of a good growing season is 0.75.What is the expected value of hiring teenagers?
A)$62,500
B)$52,500
C)$46,250
D)$12,990
E)None of the above.
A)$62,500
B)$52,500
C)$46,250
D)$12,990
E)None of the above.
$52,500
2
A company is considering three alternatives (action) to deal with this extra work load as shown below (in $100,000).If the likelihoods of easy, moderately difficult and extremely difficult are 0.2, 0.4 and 0.4, respectively, the best decision according to the expected value approach is to ________________________ .
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)outsource if the file modifications are extremely difficult
E)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)outsource if the file modifications are extremely difficult
E)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
hire temporary staff
3
A company believes there is a 20% chance the file modifications will be easy, a 40% chance that they will be moderately difficult and a 40% that they will be extremely difficult.Based on old files, modifications will be extensive or minor.Suppose the probabilities are as follows: P (Minor | Easy) = 0.80, P (Minor | Moderately Difficult)
= 0)50 and P (Minor | Extremely Difficult) = 0.20.What is the probability that the difficulty of the file modifications and transfer will be extremely difficult given that the modifications required are minor?
A)0.57
B)0.20
C)0.32
D)0.44
E)0.90
= 0)50 and P (Minor | Extremely Difficult) = 0.20.What is the probability that the difficulty of the file modifications and transfer will be extremely difficult given that the modifications required are minor?
A)0.57
B)0.20
C)0.32
D)0.44
E)0.90
0.44
4
A company is considering three alternatives (action) to deal with this extra work load as shown below (in $100,000).Using the minimin approach, the company should ________________________ .
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)outsource if the file modifications are extremely difficult
E)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)outsource if the file modifications are extremely difficult
E)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
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5
A company is considering three alternatives to deal with extra work load as shown below (in $100,000).If the likelihoods of easy, moderately difficult and extremely difficult are 0.2, 0.4 and 0.4, respectively, the expected cost of hiring temporary staff is ________________________ .
A)3.04
B)2.94
C)1.99
D)3.45
E)None of the above.
A)3.04
B)2.94
C)1.99
D)3.45
E)None of the above.
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6
A company believes there is a 20% chance the file modifications will be easy, a 40% chance that they will be moderately difficult and a 40% that they will be extremely difficult.Based on old files, modifications will be extensive or minor.Suppose the probabilities are as follows: P (Minor | Easy) = 0.80, P (Minor | Moderately Difficult)
= 0)50 and P (Minor | Extremely Difficult) = 0.20.What is the probability that the difficulty of the file modifications and transfer will be extremely difficult given that the consultant believes the modifications required are extensive?
A)0.57
B)0.20
C)0.32
D)0.44
E)0.90
= 0)50 and P (Minor | Extremely Difficult) = 0.20.What is the probability that the difficulty of the file modifications and transfer will be extremely difficult given that the consultant believes the modifications required are extensive?
A)0.57
B)0.20
C)0.32
D)0.44
E)0.90
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7
Using the payoff table ($ million) is shown below for two possible actions, if the probabilities for future mortgage interest rates going up, staying about the same, and going down are 0.35, 0.50 and 0.15, respectively, the best decision according to the expected value approach is to build ________________________ .
A)the active retirement community if interest rates go down
B)the active retirement community
C)townhouses/condominiums if interest rates go down
D)townhouses/condominiums
E)either the active retirement community or townhouses/condominiums
A)the active retirement community if interest rates go down
B)the active retirement community
C)townhouses/condominiums if interest rates go down
D)townhouses/condominiums
E)either the active retirement community or townhouses/condominiums
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8
A company believes there is a 20% chance the file modifications will be easy, a 40% chance that they will be moderately difficult and a 40% that they will be extremely difficult.Based on old files, modifications will be extensive or minor.Suppose the probabilities are as follows: P (Minor | Easy) = 0.80, P (Minor | Moderately Difficult)
= 0)50 and P (Minor | Extremely Difficult) = 0.20.What is the probability that the difficulty of the file modifications and transfer will be extremely difficult given that the modifications required are minor?
A)0.56
B)0.20
C)0.08
D)0.44
E)0.18
= 0)50 and P (Minor | Extremely Difficult) = 0.20.What is the probability that the difficulty of the file modifications and transfer will be extremely difficult given that the modifications required are minor?
A)0.56
B)0.20
C)0.08
D)0.44
E)0.18
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9
A land owner is considering two actions and mortgage interest rates will affect his outcomes.The payoff table ($ million) is shown below.According to the maximin approach, the land owner should build ________________________ .
A)the active retirement community if interest rates go down
B)the active retirement community
C)townhouses/condominiums if interest rates go down
D)townhouses/condominiums
E)either the active retirement community or townhouses/condominiums
A)the active retirement community if interest rates go down
B)the active retirement community
C)townhouses/condominiums if interest rates go down
D)townhouses/condominiums
E)either the active retirement community or townhouses/condominiums
فتح الحزمة
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10
A company is considering three alternatives to deal with extra work load (in $100,000) as shown below.If the likelihoods of easy, moderately difficult and extremely difficult are 0.2, 0.4 and 0.4, respectively, what is the expected value (in $100,000) with perfect information?
A)2.68
B)2.94
C)0.26
D)0.16
E)None of the above.
A)2.68
B)2.94
C)0.26
D)0.16
E)None of the above.
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11
A farm owner has three possible hiring decisions.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.If the probability of a good growing season is 0.75.Based on the expected value approach, the farmer should ________________________ .
A)hire migrant workers if the growing season is good
B)hire teenagers
C)do not do any extra hiring
D)hire migrant workers
E)do not do any extra hiring if the growing season is bad
A)hire migrant workers if the growing season is good
B)hire teenagers
C)do not do any extra hiring
D)hire migrant workers
E)do not do any extra hiring if the growing season is bad
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12
A farm owner has three possible hiring decisions.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.If the probability of a good growing season is 0.75.The return to risk ratio for hiring migrant workers is ________________________ .
A)8.40
B)4.05
C)2.89
D)0.346
E)None of the above.
A)8.40
B)4.05
C)2.89
D)0.346
E)None of the above.
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13
24.7 Estimating Variation.A farm owner has three possible hiring decisions.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.If the probability of a good growing season is 0.75.The standard deviation in payoffs for hiring migrant workers is ________________________ .
A)$21,651
B)$12,990
C)$5495
D)$2500
E)None of the above.
A)$21,651
B)$12,990
C)$5495
D)$2500
E)None of the above.
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14
A farm owner could hire either migrant workers or local teenagers who need summer employment.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.Using the maximax approach, the farmer would ________________________ .
A)hire migrant workers if the growing season is good
B)hire teenagers
C)not do any extra hiring
D)hire migrant workers
E)not do any extra hiring if the growing season is good
A)hire migrant workers if the growing season is good
B)hire teenagers
C)not do any extra hiring
D)hire migrant workers
E)not do any extra hiring if the growing season is good
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15
24.4 The Expected Value of an Action.Using the payoff table ($ million) is shown below, if the probabilities for future mortgage interest rates going up, staying about the same, and going down are .35, .50 and .15, respectively, what is the expected value for building an active retirement community?
A)$2.5 million
B)$3.625 million
C)$2.75 million
D)$875,000
E)None of the above
A)$2.5 million
B)$3.625 million
C)$2.75 million
D)$875,000
E)None of the above
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16
A farm owner has three possible hiring decisions.His profits depend on the growing season as shown below.If the probability of a good growing season is 0.75.If the farmer is risk averse, he would ________________________ .
A)hire migrant workers
B)hire teenagers
C)do not do any extra hiring
D)make the same decision as he would using the expected value approach
E)give up farming
A)hire migrant workers
B)hire teenagers
C)do not do any extra hiring
D)make the same decision as he would using the expected value approach
E)give up farming
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17
A company is considering three alternatives (action) to deal with this extra work load as shown below (in $100,000).Using the minimin approach, the company should ________________________ .
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
E)hire temporary staff if the file modifications are moderately difficult
A)outsource
B)hire temporary staff
C)use full time staff in overtime
D)use full time staff in overtime if the file modifications are easy
E)hire temporary staff if the file modifications are moderately difficult
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18
Using the payoff table ($ million) is shown below, if the probabilities for future mortgage interest rates going up, staying about the same, and going down are 0.35, 0.50 and 0.15, respectively, the expected value with perfect information is ________________________ .
A)$2.5 million
B)$3.625 million
C)$2.75 million
D)$875,000
E)None of the above.
A)$2.5 million
B)$3.625 million
C)$2.75 million
D)$875,000
E)None of the above.
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19
A company is considering three alternatives to deal with extra work load as shown below (in $100,000).If the likelihoods of easy, moderately difficult and extremely difficult are 0.2, 0.4 and 0.4, respectively, the standard deviation in costs associated with outsourcing is ________________________ .
A)0.37
B)0.95
C)1.11
D)1.23
E)None of the above.
A)0.37
B)0.95
C)1.11
D)1.23
E)None of the above.
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