Deck 11: Performance Evaluation Revisited: a Balanced Approach

Question 1

Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion: Greg must be into all that New Age stuff since he wears his hair in a ponytail.

Answer 1

Most people who wear their hair in a ponytail are New Agers.

Question 2

Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She's thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes. Would you assess Juanita's argument as stronger, weaker, or neither if you knew that she had made a B in each of her previous courses and not just that she has a B average?

Answer 2

Stronger. She could have a B average even though she had made Cs in some of her previous courses, and such a possibility weakens the argument.

Question 3

A sample is random if

A)it is chosen by a method the investigator does not know anything about.
B)an important variable is disproportionately present or absent.
C)every member of the population has an equal chance at being selected for the sample.

Answer 3

C

Question 4

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. "It works," she tells her husband.
What type of argument or pattern of reasoning is employed?

Question 5

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. "It works," she tells her husband.
Do you think there could be a better test of the hot plate? Explain your response in a sentence or two.

Question 6

Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion: Most people with old cars have financial problems, so Anne and Dennis must be struggling financially.

Question 7

Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion: People who go to Burning Man are not like you and me. Why just look at how odd Greg is!

Question 8

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. "It works," she tells her husband.
What kind of causal claim is this?

Question 9

Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She's thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes. Would Juanita's argument be stronger, weaker, or neither if we knew that the new course will be in psychology?

Question 10

Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion: Dennis plays trumpet in the marching band at Yale, so he probably doesn't have a girlfriend.

Question 11

With the same confidence level, a generalization from a larger sample will have

A)less strength.
B)a smaller error margin.
C)a larger error margin.
D)a larger population.

Question 12

Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion: A vast number of people who care about sustainability have a vegetable garden, so Scott probably does, too.

Question 13

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. "It works," she tells her husband.
Invent at least one plausible alternative explanation of the effect.

Question 14

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. "It works," she tells her husband.
What causal claim (if any) is stated or implied in Lin's conclusion?

Question 15

When we generalize from a sample, we draw a conclusion

A)about a sample based on a population.
B)about a population based on a sample.
C)about an attribute of interest based on a population.

Question 16

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. "It works," she tells her husband.
Is Lin using good causal reasoning?

Question 17

In generalizing from a sample, in order to achieve an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a confidence level of about 95 percent, what's the smallest random sample we can get away with, regardless of the size of the population?

A)10 percent of the population
B)100
C)500
D)1,000
E)5,000

Question 18

Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion: We're going to the home of our Italian friends, Marco and Claudia, for dinner. I suspect it'll be really good.

Question 19

Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She's thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes. Suppose that when she took the previous courses, Juanita had done all her studying alone because she didn't know any of the other students at Valley but that now she knows several good students and plans to study with them when she takes her next course. Would her argument be stronger or weaker?

Question 20

Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She's thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes. If we don't know yet what subject she will take, would her argument be stronger, weaker, or neither if her previous six courses had been in four different subjects rather than two?

Question 21

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The reason she thinks Michel is a great singer is because she's tone-deaf."

A)physical
B)behavioral

Question 22

Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.)
If all the preceding orders had been for parrots, then her argument would be stronger if the new order was for

A)both parrots and macaws.
B)just parrots.
C)just macaws.

Question 23

Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.)
The original passage is

A)an argument from analogy.
B)generalizing from a sample.

Question 24

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "My printer won't work because it's not properly hooked up to my computer."

A)physical
B)behavioral

Question 25

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The reason she's not wearing that bracelet is because it reminds her of an old girlfriend."

A)physical
B)behavioral

Question 26

Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.)
The attribute of interest here is

A)the Papagayo Company.
B)Julia.
C)healthy birds.
D)the next order.
E)Papagayo's competitors.

Question 27

Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.)
The premise-analogue in the passage is

A)the new order.
B)the previous four orders.
C)the Papagayo Co.
D)the competitors.

Question 28

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The lack of adequate public transport indirectly contributes to global warming."

A)physical
B)behavioral

Question 29

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "Oil will soon disappear because the supply is finite and most of it has been used."

A)physical
B)behavioral

Question 30

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "Her artistic immaturity makes her think that singers like Jeff are great artists."

A)physical
B)behavioral

Question 31

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The reason I can't get my printer to work is because I'm a mechanical idiot."

A)physical
B)behavioral

Question 32

Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.)
If Julia orders more expensive birds in the new order, her argument would

A)become stronger.
B)become weaker.
C)have no effect on the argument.

Question 33

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "Her arm developed a rash because she's allergic to the bracelet she was wearing."

A)physical
B)behavioral

Question 34

Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.)
Given the original circumstances, which of these conclusions would produce the strongest argument?

A)Most of the birds in the new shipment will be healthy.
B)All the birds in the new shipment will be healthy.
C)None of the birds in the new shipment will be healthy.
D)Some of the birds in the new shipment will be able to swear in two languages.

Question 35

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "They're not driving as much because they think the price of gas is too high."

A)physical
B)behavioral

Question 36

Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.)
If Julia had placed seven orders with Papagayo with the same result, her argument would be

A)stronger.
B)weaker.
C)neither stronger nor weaker.

Question 37

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "He is not attending the concert because his ex-girlfriend is performing there."

A)behavioral
B)physical

Question 38

An experiment in which subjects are randomly assigned either to an "experimental group" or a "control group" is called a

A)randomized controlled experiment.
B)randomized observational study.
C)randomized cohort trial.

Question 39

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "She believes that she contributes to global warming each time she drives, so she walks to work."

A)behavioral
B)physical

Question 40

Consider the following passage:
Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.)
If we don't know what kind of bird she's about to order, we have the strongest argument if the previous orders were

A)some for parrots and some for macaws.
B)just for parrots.
C)just for macaws.

Question 41

When we say that the number is "statistically significant," which of these is closest to what we mean?

A)the number is big enough for a sample in a good argument.
B)the number is big enough to negate the results of other experiments.
C)the number is big enough to have resulted from something besides chance.
D)the number is big enough to influence events that happen later in the series.

Question 42

In a prospective observational study, the members of the experimental group are exposed to the suspected causal agent by the investigators.

Question 43

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
Hey, Coach! I know somebody good for our volleyball team. Her name is Stacy, and she hasn't played much volleyball, but she's a great basketball player.

Question 44

When an experiment displays an outcome that is statistically significant at the .05 level, it means that

A)there is a 95 percent probability that the outcome was not a result of chance.
B)there is a 5 percent probability that the outcome was not a result of chance.
C)there is a 95 percent probability that the outcome was flawed.

Question 45

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
I like Fuji apples; I'll bet Fuji pears are good too.

Question 46

Johnson is hired by a company to see if a new product, Topocal, will cause hair to grow on the heads of bald men. He recruits one thousand bald men and randomly divides them into two groups: Five hundred men (group A) rub Topocal on their scalps each day; the other five hundred (group B) rub a standard skin lotion on their scalps each day. After two months, Johnson checks to see what the results have been. He finds that there has been hair growth in 7 percent of group A and in 2 percent of group

A)bald men in general
B)What is the sample?
B)the bald men who participated in the study
C)the men in group A
D)the men in group B

Question 47

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
When Halley's comet appeared a few years ago, there was an upsurge in the number of suicides across the country. The same thing happened when the Hale-Bopp comet appeared in 1997. I'll bet the next appearance of a visible comet will produce a rash of suicides.

Question 48

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
We have visited seven cities in southern Spain, and every one of them has a bull ring. I'll bet there's one in the next Spanish city we visit.

Question 49

The claim "Fouled spark plugs kept the car from starting" implies that the car would have started if the spark plugs had not been fouled.

Question 50

Rank the following analogical arguments:
a. Look, our stereo is a Panasonic and so is our TV, and we've never had any trouble with either of them. Let's get the Panasonic answering machine. Why take chances?
b. Look, our stereo is Japanese and so is our TV, and we've never had any trouble with either of them. Let's get the Japanese answering machine. Why take chances?
c. Look, Frank's answering machine is a Panasonic and so is Heather's, and they both say they've never had trouble with them. Let's get the Panasonic answering machine. Why take chances?

Question 51

Johnson is hired by a company to see if a new product, Topocal, will cause hair to grow on the heads of bald men. He recruits one thousand bald men and randomly divides them into two groups: Five hundred men (group A) rub Topocal on their scalps each day; the other five hundred (group B) rub a standard skin lotion on their scalps each day. After two months, Johnson checks to see what the results have been. He finds that there has been hair growth in 7 percent of group A and in 2 percent of group

A)prospective observational study.
B)The category that best fits this study is
B)retrospective observational study.
C)randomized controlled experiment.

Question 52

Johnson is hired by a company to see if a new product, Topocal, will cause hair to grow on the heads of bald men. He recruits one thousand bald men and randomly divides them into two groups: Five hundred men (group A) rub Topocal on their scalps each day; the other five hundred (group B) rub a standard skin lotion on their scalps each day. After two months, Johnson checks to see what the results have been. He finds that there has been hair growth in 7 percent of group A and in 2 percent of group

A)Yes: It changes them from insignificant to significant.
B)What if Johnson had started with 2,000 bald men (1,000 in each group) and got the same 7 and 2 percent figures? Would this have made any difference for the significance of Johnson's results?
B)Yes: It changes them from significant to insignificant.
C)No: They were insignificant before, and this leaves them that way.
D)No: They were significant before, and this leaves them that way.

Question 53

Johnson is hired by a company to see if a new product, Topocal, will cause hair to grow on the heads of bald men. He recruits one thousand bald men and randomly divides them into two groups: Five hundred men (group A) rub Topocal on their scalps each day; the other five hundred (group B) rub a standard skin lotion on their scalps each day. After two months, Johnson checks to see what the results have been. He finds that there has been hair growth in 7 percent of group A and in 2 percent of group

A)bald men in general
B)What is the population?
B)the bald men who participated in the study
C)the men in group A
D)the men in group B

Question 54

The claim "Fluoridated water prevents tooth decay," if , implies that fluoridated water would prevent tooth decay in the majority of individuals who use it.

Question 55

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
The stock market has made huge gains during each of the past four years. I'm willing to put my money on the claim that it will do the same this coming year.

Question 56

In prospective observational studies, we use "d" to stand for

A)the difference between the frequency of an effect in the experimental group and that in the control group.
B)the difference between the frequency of a suspected cause in the experimental group and that in the control group.
C)the data accumulated from the control group.
D)the data accumulated from the experimental group.

Question 57

Johnson is hired by a company to see if a new product, Topocal, will cause hair to grow on the heads of bald men. He recruits one thousand bald men and randomly divides them into two groups: Five hundred men (group A) rub Topocal on their scalps each day; the other five hundred (group B) rub a standard skin lotion on their scalps each day. After two months, Johnson checks to see what the results have been. He finds that there has been hair growth in 7 percent of group A and in 2 percent of group

A)yes
B)Given the size of Johnson's two groups, would you say that the results of the test are statistically significant?
B)no
C)no way to tell

Question 58

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
Can I recommend a good mechanic? Sure-B&M Tuneup. I've been taking my car there for years, and I've never had a single complaint. Of course, I have an old Chevy, and you drive a Mazda-one of those rotary-engine jobs, isn't it?

Question 59

In a retrospective observational study, none of the members of the control group show the effect of the cause being investigated.

Question 60

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
Prostitution is legal in the Netherlands, and it doesn't seem to produce any terrible societal problems. I'll bet it would be the same in the United States.

Question 61

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative.
The cocktail Beatrice orders before dinner is watery, so she decides not to eat there after all. "Don't think they can fix decent dinners if they can't even make a decent martini," she mutters.

Question 62

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative.
Noting that recent scientific research suggests that a daily glass of wine or two might be good for the heart, Mr. Laub decides to tank up. "Why in hell not," he says. "If one glass of wine is good for you, most likely five or six is really good for you."

Question 63

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative.
Stortz has heard from his friends that the folks in North Carolina are pretty friendly, so he looks forward to going through it on his bike trip to Florida.

Question 64

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
"He won the Silver Medal of Honor, has a Purple Heart, and was an Eagle Scout. I find it difficult to believe that it was he who committed the robbery."

Question 65

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
Mr. Naphal has read in an authoritative science report that a dye commonly injected into Florida oranges is carcinogenic. He resolves not only to avoid Florida oranges until he learns that they no longer are dyed with the same chemical, but also to avoid California oranges and all grapefruit as well.

Question 66

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative.
Parker recommends the latest Larry McMurtry novel to Moore. Moore decides not to bother, since every other novel Parker has recommended turned out to be a dud, in Moore's opinion.

Question 67

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
The thing that worries me is that we're going to get bogged down in Iraq just as we got bogged down in Vietnam. The situations are exactly the same: It's us against a poor nation that is determined to win and doesn't play by the rules our military thinkers understand.

Question 68

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative.
Fong notes that the pavement deteriorates as he crosses into the next county. "Guess they don't keep up their roads very well," he thinks.

Question 69

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative.
Stratton takes one look at his new teacher and concludes he is going to like the course. "You can just tell," he says to his girlfriend later, "it's gonna be a great course. The teacher brought up all these interesting subjects-and it was only the first day."

Question 70

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
A conversation:
"You going to vote for Spankey or Howard in the city council election?"
"Howard. As far as I can make out, their experience is the same, and they both take about the same position on the issues. But Spankey was a student of mine. I caught him cheating once."

Question 71

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
Six months ago, several of Molly's friends joined the Trimtime Fitness Center. Each of them participated in Trimtime's weight-reduction and fitness regimen. All reported substantial weight reduction, and all are visibly slimmer. Molly is convinced. She joins Trimtime and enrolls in the same program, hoping and expecting to see the same results. She is especially delighted to learn that Trimtime had adjusted its program to make it even more effective in a shorter period of time.

Question 72

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
He: Let's leave Cincinnati for the golden West! Why don't we move to Los Angeles?
She: Well, for one thing, we couldn't afford to buy a house there.
He: Don't be such a pessimist. We bought this house here, didn't we? How much more expensive can houses in Los Angeles be?

Question 73

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
The Patriots easily made it into last year's Super Bowl. They'll have almost the same personnel next year, so I'm putting my money on the Patriots to be back next year.

Question 74

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
Clark said gun control should not be blamed in situations when the user abuses the weapon. "A gun is an inanimate object," he said. "A plane is an inanimate object, but look at how many people are killed by them and they're not illegal." Clark said that he was raised on a ranch and has "run around with guns since I was big enough to carry them." He added that he has never shot anybody as a result of growing up around guns.

Question 75

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
From a letter to the editor: "Harry Kryshnah lost the last election because he supported handgun control. So now he's changed his tune and claims he'll be the first one to oppose handgun control. I voted for him last June, but I won't vote for him this time, and it's not because I favor handgun control. I just don't want a governor who can talk out of both sides of his mouth like that."

Question 76

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
Wolfgang has been to America, once visiting New York and once visiting Columbus. (Why is it always "Columbus, Ohio"? Is there another sizable Columbus?) Now he has an opportunity to visit New Orleans. Wolfgang decides not to go. "Based on my experience, it will be awful-there'll be crime, violence, poverty, rude people, drug addicts-every kind of unpleasantness."

Question 77

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
In Great Britain, savings of between 20 and 40 percent in costs have resulted from selling government-run programs and businesses to individuals and companies in the private sector. This argues well for the administration's interest in selling such U.S. government entities as the Bonneville Power Administration, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and various parts of the postal service.

Question 78

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
According to a 2008 National Safety Council study, hunting has the lowest rate of injury of the 22 most popular recreational activities. Get this: Badminton, yes, badminton! Four times as many injuries as hunting.

Question 79

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
Hank Kingscote has won every one of his fifteen previous prizefights by knockouts. The chances are that the poor fellow who's going to fight him next will wind up stretched out on the canvas.

Question 80

Evaluate the following analogical argument:
Washburn has read that it is good to include cabbage in one's diet. He doesn't care much for cabbage, but he likes brussels sprouts. Since the latter look like small cabbages, he assumes that their nutritional benefits will be about the same as those of cabbage.