Deck 4: The Prediction Problem

Question 1

Findings from Wolfgang's landmark Delinquency in a Birth Cohort study contributed to a shift in crime control policy from specific to general incapacitation.

Answer 1

False

Question 2

Wolfgang's original findings have been confirmed by other cohort studies.

Answer 2

True

Question 3

Wolfgang's Delinquency in a Birth Cohort research uncovered some important offending trends including which of the following?

A) a small percentage of delinquents are responsible for the majority of all crimes
B) reasons why most delinquents stop committing illegal acts at some point
C) that most young males have at least one officially recorded act of violence
D) failing liberal policies contributed to increased rates of chronic offending in the 1960s

Answer 3

A

Question 4

The Sentencing Commission's evaluation of federal sentencing guidelines found that as criminal history scores increased so did recidivism rates.

Question 5

Identifying and selectively incapacitating chronic offenders was difficult before the evidence-based policy movement but has since become much easier.

Question 6

One of the differences noted between the various cohort studies is that

A) some rely on official records while others use self-report data
B) some focus on violent offending while others focus on property offenses
C) some emphasize the onset of criminal careers and others emphasize desistance from them
D) some find chronic offending rates low as 5.8% and others as high as 9.5% in a cohort

Question 7

The research studies discussed in this chapter have provided information on

A) the prevalence of criminality and seriousness of offending
B) the onset and desistance of criminal careers
C) the persistence and desistance of criminal careers
D) the frequency of offending and career length

Question 8

Wolfgang's birth cohort study was published at a time when crime rates were slowly beginning to increase.

Question 9

Wolfgang labeled members of the cohort

A) delinquents and recidivists
B) low, medium, and high-rate offenders
C) nonoffenders, part-time offenders, and repeaters
D) one-time offenders, nonchronic recidivists, and chronic delinquents

Question 10

The Texas death row inmate study relied on the clinical evaluation method of prediction.

Question 11

Prevalence of criminality refers to participation in crime while persistence refers to continuing criminal activity.

Question 12

Wolfgang's follow-up study using a 1958 cohort found

A) offenders in the 1958 cohort began their criminal careers at an earlier age than the 1945 cohort
B) a small percentage of the cohort was chronic recidivists, but they committed more and more serious crimes than the 1945 cohort
C) the same pattern in chronic offending held for both boys and girls
D) the original study was a fluke as similar patterns in chronic offending were not identified

Question 13

The effectiveness of the Rand prediction scale was assessed by correlating predicting scores with inmates' actual reported criminal behavior.

Question 14

Wolfgang's birth cohort research found what percent of the original cohort had at least one officially recorded contact with the police?

A) 6%
B) 16%
C) 35%
D) 95%

Question 15

Research indicates that the most accurate method of predicting chronic offending is the actuarial approach.

Question 16

Other cohort studies have found that

A) chronic offending patterns in large urban areas differ drastically from those in small Midwestern communities
B) the proportion of chronic offenders in a cohort increases as the proportion of minorities in an area increases
C) a small group of offenders accounts for a high proportion of all crimes by the cohort
D) chronic offending patterns in the U.S.are not found in other countries

Question 17

The method of estimating annual offending rates in the Rand Inmates Survey was a major advance over previous estimates because it relied on self-report data.

Question 18

One of the implications regarding Wolfgang's use of officially recorded police contacts as the measure of delinquency noted in the chapter was that

A) this data did not capture property or violent crimes committed on school grounds
B) the racial bias of police in Philadelphia resulted in arrest records for more minorities than Caucasian boys in the cohort
C) the prevalence of offending was likely higher since the data did not capture crimes unknown to police
D) all of the above

Question 19

Policies inspired by the career criminal research include which of the following?

A) random police patrols, career criminal prosecution and job corps
B) pretrial detention, selective incapacitation and intensive probation
C) diversion, pretrial detention and electronic monitoring
D) community policing, speedy trials and restitution

Question 20

Select the most accurate statement from the following list.

A) criminal careers and career criminals are the same thing
B) the prevalence of criminality refers to the rate at which criminals commit crimes
C) persistence refers to the tendency for offenders to specialize in one type of crime
D) all of the above
E) none of the above

Question 21

There are several basic methods for predicting criminal behavior including which of the following?

A) the actuarial method which is similar to presentence investigations
B) the prior history method that sentencing guidelines are based on
C) the clinical evaluation method which insurance companies use
D) all of the above
E) none of the above

Question 22

Which of the following factors were NOT used in Rand's seven-point prediction scale?

A) incarceration
B) Drug use
C) employment
D) race

Question 23

Questions about chronic offenders that remain unanswered include

A) when do they begin their criminal careers and can we identify them early?
B) how much and what kinds of crime do career criminals commit?
C) how long do chronic offenders remain active and when do they stop?
D) all of the above
E) none of the above

Question 24

The problem with the Sentencing Commission study is that

A) it ignores offenders' prior histories
B) it uses race as a factor to determine future dangerousness
C) it is based on false evidence
D) it gives only broad, instead of specific, predictions

Question 25

Select the most accurate statement regarding correct and incorrect predictions

A) true positives are correctly identified as likely to commit a violent act
B) false negatives are incorrectly predicted not to be violent
C) false positives are incorrectly predicted as likely to become violent
D) all of the above
E) none of the above

Question 26

Traditionally, identification of repeat offenders was based on

A) guesses that took seriousness and prior record into consideration
B) finger prints and intensive surveillance
C) prediction instruments based on characteristics of at-risk kids
D) amount of time spent in jails in prisons

Question 27

The results of Rand's second attempt at predicting career criminals were published in a report entitled

A) Selective Incapacitation
B) Reducing the Prediction Problem
C) Why the High-Rate Offenders Are Hard to Predict
D) Delinquency in a Birth Cohort

Question 28

The prediction instrument used in the Wenk study used which of the prediction methods?

A) actuarial and clinical evaluation
B) actuarial and prior history
C) prior history and clinical evaluation
D) actuarial, prior history and clinical evaluation

Question 29

The prediction instrument used in the Wenk study

A) identified more true positives than false negatives
B) identified more true negatives than false negatives
C) identified more false negatives than false positives
D) identified more false positives than true positives

Question 30

The results of Rand's second study that attempted to predict career criminals showed

A) that self-reporting is a valid predictive method
B) that arrest rates alone cannot predict high rate offenders
C) that self-reporting is effective only among offenders who have graduated high school
D) that arrest rates are a useful prediction tool

Question 31

According to the text, the two serious problems involved in translating chronic offender research into policy include

A) identifying the chronic offenders and when they begin their careers
B) the conflict between preventing chronic offending versus punishing it
C) determining what kinds of crime they commit and why they stop
D) the prediction problem and estimating how much crime they commit

Question 32

Evaluations of the seven-point prediction scale generated by Rand found that

A) it was correct 51% of the time but grossly wrong 7% of the time
B) it produced twice as many correct predictions as judges were able to do
C) it was able to predict chronic offending in juveniles more accurately than in adults
D) it was highly racist which prevented an accurate evaluation of its effectiveness

Question 33

Some say timing is everything.Wolfgang's original study was published at a time when

A) the public was tired of getting tough and sought to prevent chronic offending
B) the public was eager to explore responses to crime that existed outside the CJS
C) crime rates had been rising and the public was disillusioned with liberal policies
D) all of the above
E) none of the above

Question 34

The prediction method that plays a role in the federal sentencing guidelines is

A) actuarial
B) prior history
C) clinical evaluation
D) all of the above

Question 35

Various estimates of annual offending rates tell us that

A) there is no average career criminal
B) rates vary but within a narrow range
C) offenders average 50 felonies a year
D) official records provide the best estimates

Question 36

The Rand Inmate Survey used which prediction method?

A) actuarial
B) prior history
C) clinical evaluation
D) all of the above

Question 37

Predictions of future dangerousness in the Texas death row inmate study

A) were wrong in 95% of the cases
B) were right in 20% of the cases
C) resulted in 155 wrongful executions
D) incorrectly gave 8 life sentences for each correct death sentence

Question 38

The Sentencing Commission's evaluation of federal sentencing guidelines tells us that

A) this prediction instrument is more accurate at predicting chronic offending than what judges were able to do
B) this carefully designed prediction instrument is currently the most accurate method for predicting chronic offending
C) people with longer prior records are more likely to commit future crime than people with shorter prior records
D) prediction instruments are unnecessary, because chronic offenders are easily identified based on prior record and the seriousness of offense

Question 39

Estimates of annual offending rates from the Rand Inmate Survey are best described as

A) low rates with consistent nationwide trends
B) average rates with consistent nationwide trends
C) high rates with state-to-state variations
D) unable to assess due to the prediction problem