Deck 5: Barriers to Analysis

Question 1

What bias occurs when analysts assume the subjects they are studying pursue coherent, rational, goal-maximizing policies?

A) Failure to Recognize Questionable Assumptions
B) Fallacy of Centralized Direction
C) Fallacy of Big Results/Big Cause
D) None of the above

Answer 1

B

Question 2

Self-censorship occurs when:

A) Members in a group encourage others to see their point of view
B) Superficially everyone is in agreement but in reality lingering but unspoken doubts remain
C) Members stifle opinions that run counter to what they believe to be the group's ideas
D) Members bully others to "get in line" with the other members of the group

Answer 2

C

Question 3

Which statement best describes the relationship between politics and analysis?

A) Politics have no place in analysis
B) When intelligence is politicized, it puts the policy maker at an advantage
C) Analysts should tell the policy maker what they want to hear for the good of the country
D) Analysts should only reveal information that supports the policy maker's opinion

Answer 3

A

Question 4

Which of the following is NOT a barrier to information sharing?

A) Stovepipe
B) Cultural differences
C) Collaboration
D) Competition

Question 5

Which of the following is an example of the vividness criterion?

A) John was a soldier in the War on Terror. He watched as a Muslim insurgent killed his best friend. John believes that all Muslims are terrorists.
B) Jennifer has traditionally supported use of the death penalty for convicted criminals. Having recently watched a documentary about someone on death row, however, she changes her opinion.
C) Connie is an analyst at CIA. Her best friend, an Arab-American, told Connie about some of her family members who were killed during the War in Afghanistan. Connie feels a sense of guilt.
D) Matt watched, on television, the Twin Towers falling on 9/11. He wants to help the U.S. win the War on Terror. He has since been hired at the DIA and assigned to a unit that focuses on al Qa'ida.

Question 6

According to Heuer, major intelligence failures are usually caused because not enough good information was collected.

Question 7

define the following major challenges to analysis :
-Heuristic Biases.

Question 8

define the following major challenges to analysis :
-Bounded Rationality.

Question 9

define the following major challenges to analysis :
-Group Think.

Question 10

define the following major challenges to analysis :
-Perception.

Question 11

define the following heuristic biases :
-Anchoring

Question 12

define the following heuristic biases :
-Availability

Question 13

define the following heuristic biases :
-Affect

Question 14

define the following heuristic biases :
-Primacy/Recency

Question 15

define the following heuristic biases :
-Representative

Question 16

define the following heuristic biases :
-Commitment Escalation

Question 17

define the following heuristic biases :
-Fundamental Attribution

Question 18

define the following heuristic biases :
-Confirmation

Question 19

What is meant by mirror-imaging?

Question 20

In science, to say that something causes something else (as in a cause and effect relationship), one must meet strict criteria. List the criteria.

Question 21

What is meant by Capital-P and small-p politics?

Question 22

Explain why the relationship between an analyst and policy maker can be tricky. What factors on each side can cause inaccurate decision-making? How can this be avoided?

Question 23

Explain the difference between "need to know" and "responsibility to provide." What are the pros and cons of each? In your opinion, which most benefits U.S. national security?

Question 24

Explain the pros and cons of group decision-making. Although it is encouraged in the IC to collaborate and share information, are two heads always better than one?

Question 25

Is it ever possible to completely remove bias from analysis? Why or why not?