Deck 15: The Future of Intelligence

Question 1

When discussing the future, analysts use the term:

A) Estimate
B) Predict
C) Forecast
D) Projection

Answer 1

C

Question 2

Which of the following is NOT on the Director of National Intelligence's list of "Persistent Threats and Emerging Missions?"

A) Energy
B) Revolutions
C) Climate change
D) Space

Answer 2

B

Question 3

To counter threats of the future, the Director of National Intelligence wants to create an intelligence enterprise that is:

A) Isolated
B) Separated
C) Prepared
D) Integrated

Answer 3

D

Question 4

When agencies tend to focus on the pressing problems of the moment and neglect other less visible challenges that may spring up, it is called:

A) Fundamental error bias
B) Tyranny of the immediate
C) Vividness criterion
D) Actionable intelligence

Question 5

Which of the following is NOT one of the key areas in the Director of National Intelligence's mission to create a globally networked intelligence enterprise?

A) Diplomacy
B) Technology
C) Policy
D) Personnel

Question 6

According to author Nicholas Taleb, events that are difficult to anticipate but would have a major impact on the world are referred to as:

A) Forecasts
B) Outliers
C) Black Swan events
D) Preferred future
E) None of the above

Question 7

By the year 2025, the computer giant Cisco anticipates that there will be 50 billion networked devices throughout the world. This is generally referred to as:

A) Technological Singularity
B) Artificial Intelligence
C) Nanotechnology
D) The Internet of Things
E) None of the above

Question 8

List and define how alternative futures are described (the 3 p's).

Question 9

Explain why and how analysts "forecast" events.

Question 10

Name the four BRIC countries, and explain their significance to futures analysis.

Question 11

What are "youth bulges"? In what parts of the world are they occurring? Why are they of interest to the intelligence community?

Question 12

List and explain the drivers that will likely affect the world's future, according to the text. Which drivers, not listed in the text, do you think will also have an effect?

Question 13

Technology has enhanced almost every aspect of our lives. However, there are also downsides to the rapid growth in technology. What are some of these downsides?

Question 14

What are the pros and cons of globalization? Discuss the possible risks it poses to U.S. national security. Consider the collapse of the euro - how could it have a global effect?

Question 15

Why do intelligence analysts care about forecasting the future? Is it an analyst's job to "create the preferred future?" Why or why not?