Deck 10: Inductive Logic
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ملء الشاشة (f)
Deck 10: Inductive Logic
1
Which of the following is not a requirement for an argument to be cogent?
A) The conclusion must be true.
B) The premises must be true.
C) It must be probable that if the premises are true, then the conclusion is true.
D) The truth of the premises must make the conclusion probable.
A) The conclusion must be true.
B) The premises must be true.
C) It must be probable that if the premises are true, then the conclusion is true.
D) The truth of the premises must make the conclusion probable.
The conclusion must be true.
2
The essential feature of a strong argument is that
A) it has a true conclusion.
B) it has all true premises.
C) the conclusion is likely (but not necessarily) true, if the premises are true.
D) the conclusion is necessarily true, if the premises are true.
A) it has a true conclusion.
B) it has all true premises.
C) the conclusion is likely (but not necessarily) true, if the premises are true.
D) the conclusion is necessarily true, if the premises are true.
the conclusion is likely (but not necessarily) true, if the premises are true.
3
Which of the following is the form of a statistical syllogism?
A) A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B) x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C) x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D) R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
A) A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B) x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C) x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D) R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
4
The fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed when
A) one argues that something is true given that it hasn't been shown to be false.
B) one seeks to meet the standard of strength but knowingly omits relevant evidence.
C) one constructs a valid argument using premises that are not known to be true.
D) one unknowingly omits relevant evidence that could have been discovered through some investigation.
A) one argues that something is true given that it hasn't been shown to be false.
B) one seeks to meet the standard of strength but knowingly omits relevant evidence.
C) one constructs a valid argument using premises that are not known to be true.
D) one unknowingly omits relevant evidence that could have been discovered through some investigation.
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5
Which of the following is a statistical syllogism?
A) 18 percent of all students who take beginning chemistry fail the course; Mark is taking beginning chemistry; so, Mark will fail the course.
B) 61 percent of people who watch television at least four hours per day are illiterate; the people on my dorm floor watch at least four hours of television per day; so 61 percent of the people on my dorm floor are illiterate.
C) 100 percent of the ingredients in this cake are of the highest quality; flour is an ingredient in this cake; so, the flour in this cake is of the highest quality.
D)83 percent of people who smoke cigarettes experience serious related health problems later in life; Chris smokes cigarettes; so, Chris will experience serious related health problems later in life.
A) 18 percent of all students who take beginning chemistry fail the course; Mark is taking beginning chemistry; so, Mark will fail the course.
B) 61 percent of people who watch television at least four hours per day are illiterate; the people on my dorm floor watch at least four hours of television per day; so 61 percent of the people on my dorm floor are illiterate.
C) 100 percent of the ingredients in this cake are of the highest quality; flour is an ingredient in this cake; so, the flour in this cake is of the highest quality.
D)83 percent of people who smoke cigarettes experience serious related health problems later in life; Chris smokes cigarettes; so, Chris will experience serious related health problems later in life.
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6
The primary difference between inductive and deductive logic is that
A) deductive logic evaluates arguments for validity while inductive logic evaluates arguments for strength.
B)deductive logic evaluates arguments whose premises are general and whose conclusion is specific, while inductive logic evaluates arguments whose premises are specific and whose conclusion is general.
C) deductive logic provides algorithms for testing arguments, while inductive logic is intuitive.
D) deductive logic can be used to determine the truth of the premises, while inductive logic can only indicate whether the premises are likely to be true.
A) deductive logic evaluates arguments for validity while inductive logic evaluates arguments for strength.
B)deductive logic evaluates arguments whose premises are general and whose conclusion is specific, while inductive logic evaluates arguments whose premises are specific and whose conclusion is general.
C) deductive logic provides algorithms for testing arguments, while inductive logic is intuitive.
D) deductive logic can be used to determine the truth of the premises, while inductive logic can only indicate whether the premises are likely to be true.
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7
Which of the following is the form of an argument from authority?
A) A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B) x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C) x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D) R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
A) A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B) x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C) x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D) R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
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8
Arguments from authority involve appeals to what kind of authority?
A) organizational authorities (e.g., a superior officer in the military)
B) cognitive authorities (e.g., an expert witness)
C) legal authorities (e.g., a judge)
D) academic authorities (e.g., a college professor)
A) organizational authorities (e.g., a superior officer in the military)
B) cognitive authorities (e.g., an expert witness)
C) legal authorities (e.g., a judge)
D) academic authorities (e.g., a college professor)
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9
A fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed in an argument from authority when the arguer
A) fails to note that an equally reliable authority denies the conclusion.
B) fails to address questions of clarity.
C) fails to identify anyone who disagrees with the authority cited.
D) fails to provide evidence that the authority cited is a reliable cognitive authority.
A) fails to note that an equally reliable authority denies the conclusion.
B) fails to address questions of clarity.
C) fails to identify anyone who disagrees with the authority cited.
D) fails to provide evidence that the authority cited is a reliable cognitive authority.
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10
Arguments from authority may fail in all of the following ways except
A) committing a fallacy of incomplete evidence.
B) drawing on a misinterpretation of the authority cited.
C) failing to cite a majority of experts on the topic in question.
D) appealing to the opinion of an organizational authority.
A) committing a fallacy of incomplete evidence.
B) drawing on a misinterpretation of the authority cited.
C) failing to cite a majority of experts on the topic in question.
D) appealing to the opinion of an organizational authority.
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11
Which of the following is the form of an induction by enumeration?
A) A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B) x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C) x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D) R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
A) A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B) x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C) x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D) R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
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12
In the statement "62 percent of all Americans with siblings are happy," the population is
A) 62 percent.
B) Americans.
C) happy people.
D) Americans with siblings.
A) 62 percent.
B) Americans.
C) happy people.
D) Americans with siblings.
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13
In the statement "99 percent of all philosophers are wise but not wealthy," the sample is
A) 99 percent of philosophers.
B) philosophers.
C) wise people.
D) wise but not wealthy people.
A) 99 percent of philosophers.
B) philosophers.
C) wise people.
D) wise but not wealthy people.
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14
The fallacy of incomplete evidence arises for inductions by enumeration when
A) the sample is incomplete (not all members of the population were surveyed).
B) the sample is representative of the population.
C) the sample is too small or is biased.
D) the sample is random.
A) the sample is incomplete (not all members of the population were surveyed).
B) the sample is representative of the population.
C) the sample is too small or is biased.
D) the sample is random.
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15
In order to be random, a sample of a population must meet the requirement that
A) each member of the population has the opportunity to be surveyed.
B) the population be representative of a larger population.
C) each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for observation.
D) each member of the sample is free of distorting psychological factors.
A) each member of the population has the opportunity to be surveyed.
B) the population be representative of a larger population.
C) each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for observation.
D) each member of the sample is free of distorting psychological factors.
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16
Which of the following is not a characteristic of a good sample of a population?
A) Members of the sample were selected randomly.
B) The sample is of an appropriate size.
C) The sample is not distorted by psychological factors.
D) Members of the sample were self-selected.
A) Members of the sample were selected randomly.
B) The sample is of an appropriate size.
C) The sample is not distorted by psychological factors.
D) Members of the sample were self-selected.
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17
The appropriate size of a sample depends on all of the following except
A) the degree of uniformity within the population.
B) the nature of the questions to be asked.
C) the size of the population from which the sample is to be taken.
D) the acceptable degree of error.
A) the degree of uniformity within the population.
B) the nature of the questions to be asked.
C) the size of the population from which the sample is to be taken.
D) the acceptable degree of error.
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18
The sampling error is defined as
A) the difference between the percentage of the sample that has the attribute in question and the percentage of the population that has it.
B) the ratio of randomness to population uniformity over time.
C) the percentage of the population represented in the sample compared to the percentage of the sample that has the attribute in question.
D) the percentage of the population represented in the sample.
A) the difference between the percentage of the sample that has the attribute in question and the percentage of the population that has it.
B) the ratio of randomness to population uniformity over time.
C) the percentage of the population represented in the sample compared to the percentage of the sample that has the attribute in question.
D) the percentage of the population represented in the sample.
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19
In which of the following samples is the sampling error the lowest?
A) 1,000
B) 300
C) 750
D) 150
A) 1,000
B) 300
C) 750
D) 150
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20
Of the following, which would reduce sampling error?
A) decreasing the size of the population from which the sample is taken
B) sampling only populations with a high degree of uniformity
C) eliminating distortions caused by psychological factors
D) increasing the size of the sample
A) decreasing the size of the population from which the sample is taken
B) sampling only populations with a high degree of uniformity
C) eliminating distortions caused by psychological factors
D) increasing the size of the sample
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21
If the occurrence of X brings about Y, then
A) X is both a necessary and a sufficient condition for Y.
B) X is a necessary condition for Y.
C) Y is a necessary condition for X.
D) Y is a sufficient condition for X.
A) X is both a necessary and a sufficient condition for Y.
B) X is a necessary condition for Y.
C) Y is a necessary condition for X.
D) Y is a sufficient condition for X.
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22
When one attempts to establish the cause of something by identifying a common factor in a range of cases, one is using the method of
A) agreement.
B) difference.
C) residues.
D) concomitant variation.
A) agreement.
B) difference.
C) residues.
D) concomitant variation.
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23
The method of difference involves
A) identifying a common factor in a range of cases.
B) comparing two or more cases in which the effect is present in different degrees.
C) comparing two cases, one in which the effect is present and one in which the effect is absent.
D) eliminating causes that have already been identified.
A) identifying a common factor in a range of cases.
B) comparing two or more cases in which the effect is present in different degrees.
C) comparing two cases, one in which the effect is present and one in which the effect is absent.
D) eliminating causes that have already been identified.
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24
Formulating and testing hypotheses involves
A) identifying others who have accepted the hypothesis.
B) considering the implications of the hypothesis.
C) modifying the hypothesis in light of disconfirming evidence.
D) demonstrating the weakness of alternative hypotheses.
A) identifying others who have accepted the hypothesis.
B) considering the implications of the hypothesis.
C) modifying the hypothesis in light of disconfirming evidence.
D) demonstrating the weakness of alternative hypotheses.
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25
A confirming instance of a hypothesis is
A) a demonstration of its explanatory power.
B) a case in which an implication of the hypothesis is observed to be true.
C) its susceptibility to empirical testing.
D) its conformity with other well-established hypotheses.
A) a demonstration of its explanatory power.
B) a case in which an implication of the hypothesis is observed to be true.
C) its susceptibility to empirical testing.
D) its conformity with other well-established hypotheses.
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26
Which of the following would strengthen an argument from analogy?
A) discovering relevant similarities between the things compared
B) discovering relevant dissimilarities between the things compared
C) identifying things relevantly similar to the objects but that lack the property in question
D) restating it using psychologically more persuasive language
A) discovering relevant similarities between the things compared
B) discovering relevant dissimilarities between the things compared
C) identifying things relevantly similar to the objects but that lack the property in question
D) restating it using psychologically more persuasive language
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27
The probability that I will not select a king from a well-shuffled deck of cards is
A) 4/52 or 1/13
B) 1/52
C) 3/52
D) 48/52 or 12/13
A) 4/52 or 1/13
B) 1/52
C) 3/52
D) 48/52 or 12/13
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28
Given that p and q are mutually exclusive, to determine P(p ⋁ q) we should use
A) the restricted disjunction rule.
B) the general disjunction rule.
C) the restricted negation rule.
D) the general conjunction rule.
A) the restricted disjunction rule.
B) the general disjunction rule.
C) the restricted negation rule.
D) the general conjunction rule.
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29
When "→" is understood as the material conditional, P(p → q) is equal to
A) P(p) + P(q/p).
B) P(~p ⋁ q).
C) 1 - P(p • q).
D) P(~p) - P(q).
A) P(p) + P(q/p).
B) P(~p ⋁ q).
C) 1 - P(p • q).
D) P(~p) - P(q).
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30
Which of the following is the general disjunction rule?
A) If p and q are mutually exclusive, then P(p ⋁ q) = P(p) + P(q).
B) If p and q are mutually exclusive, then P(p • q) = P(p) + P(q).
C)
P(p ⋁ ~p) = P(p) - P(~p).
D)
P(p ⋁ q) = P(p) + P(q) - P(p • q).
A) If p and q are mutually exclusive, then P(p ⋁ q) = P(p) + P(q).
B) If p and q are mutually exclusive, then P(p • q) = P(p) + P(q).
C)
P(p ⋁ ~p) = P(p) - P(~p).
D)
P(p ⋁ q) = P(p) + P(q) - P(p • q).
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31
Suppose you draw a card from a deck, do not replace it, then draw a second card. What rule would you use to determine the probability of drawing an ace and then drawing a black card?
A) the conditional rule: P(p • q)/P(p)
B) the general conjunction rule: P(p) × P(q/p)
C) the restricted conjunction rule: P(p) × P(q)
D) the restricted disjunction rule: P(p) + P(q)
A) the conditional rule: P(p • q)/P(p)
B) the general conjunction rule: P(p) × P(q/p)
C) the restricted conjunction rule: P(p) × P(q)
D) the restricted disjunction rule: P(p) + P(q)
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32
Suppose that P(h/e) = 5/9. Then P(~h/e) is
A) 5/9.
B) 4/9.
C) 1/9.
D) 4/5.
A) 5/9.
B) 4/9.
C) 1/9.
D) 4/5.
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33
Suppose that P(h) = 3/5, P(e/h) = 2/5, and P(e/~h) = 3/5. Bayes' theorem reveals that
A) P(~h) = 2/5.
B) P(e/~h) > P(e/h).
C) P(h/e) = 6/12.
D) P(h/e) = 6/25.
A) P(~h) = 2/5.
B) P(e/~h) > P(e/h).
C) P(h/e) = 6/12.
D) P(h/e) = 6/25.
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34
Applied to evidence e and hypothesis h, the conditional rule says P(h = e) =
A)
B)
C)
D)
A)
B)
C)
D)
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35
A strong argument guarantees the truth of its conclusion.
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36
A cogent argument is one that is both strong and has all true premises.
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37
Cogent arguments can have false conclusions.
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38
The strength of an argument is determined solely by its form.
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39
An argument with false premises is uncogent.
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40
A statistical syllogism argues that because a certain percentage of a group has a certain characteristic and a particular thing is a member of that group, that particular thing must also have that characteristic.
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41
The fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed in a statistical syllogism when one knowingly omits relevant evidence that bears on the truth of the conclusion.
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42
The percentage cited in a statistical syllogism may be less than 50.
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43
Some statistical syllogisms may be stronger than others.
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44
Deductive arguments proceed from the general to the specific while inductive arguments proceed from the specific to the general.
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45
In order to be properly constructed, an argument must avoid any fallacy of incomplete evidence.
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46
Whether an argument from authority is strong depends on whether the authority cited is reliable.
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47
In order to be strong, an argument from authority must appeal to what a reliable and relevant source says.
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48
The fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed in an argument from authority when the authority cited is not infallible.
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49
When two or more authorities disagree on a point, we can avoid a fallacy of incomplete evidence by drawing on a wider range of reliable authorities.
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50
The fallacy of incomplete evidence arises in inductions by enumeration when the sample is too small or is biased.
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51
A sample is biased when it is not representative of a population.
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52
A population must have a high degree of uniformity in order for a random sample to be possible.
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53
If a sample of a population is not random, then it is biased.
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54
The smaller the sample of a population, the larger the margin of sampling error.
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55
The sampling error is the difference between the percentage of one random sample that has an attribute and the percentage of another random sample of the same population that has that attribute.
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56
Mill's Methods provide us with patterns of reasoning to reach general conclusions of the form "All P are Q."
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57
A cause is a necessary condition for an event if its presence is enough to bring about the event.
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58
In using the method of agreement, one attempts to identify a common factor in a range of cases.
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59
The method of difference involves identifying ways in which differences between events influence our perception of them.
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60
When a cause is established by identifying a correlation between two phenomena, the method of residues is being used.
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61
Testing a scientific hypothesis involves identifying the implications of the hypothesis and observing whether they occur.
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62
Rejecting a scientific hypothesis is strictly a matter of applying modus tollens reasoning.
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63
A scientific hypothesis is confirmed when at least one of its implied consequences holds
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64
In an argument by analogy, the more relevant dissimilarities there are between the objects being compared, the less likely the conclusion is to be true.
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65
When comparing two objects-A and B-to the extent that things (other than A) relevantly similar to B lack the property in question, the analogy between A and B breaks down.
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66
In an argument by analogy, the more relevant similarities between the objects being compared, the weaker the analogy.
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67
The tautologies of statement logic have a probability of one.
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68
The probability of A • ~A is greater than zero.
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69
A set of statements is exhaustive if they can't all be
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70
B and ~B are mutually exclusive.
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71
A and ~A are exhaustive.
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72
The restricted disjunction rule only applies to disjunctions of statements that are mutually exclusive.
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73
P(A ? ~A) = P(A) + P(~A).
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74
P(~S) = P(S) - 1.
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75
If the probability of S is .25 or 1/4, then the probability of ~S is .25 or 1/4.
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76
The general rule of disjunction applies to any pair of statements.
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77
The probability that p is
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78
Two statements are independent when neither affects the probability of the other.
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79
If we know that P(h/e) = 3/5, we may conclude that P(~h/e) = 2/5.
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80
Bayes' theorem cannot be applied if a precise numerical value cannot be assigned to the prior probability of the hypothesis.
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