Deck 13: Weather Forecasting and Analysis

Question 1

Computer-based weather forecasts

A)are completely automated and require no intervention by human forecasters.
B)are mostly unreliable and are little-used by human forecasters.
C)provide important guidance to human forecasters.
D)are only used in specific, hurricane-prone areas.

Answer 1

C

Question 2

The primary professional organization for professional meteorologists in the United States is the ________.

Answer 2

American Meteorological Society

Question 3

The weather organization that now exists was renamed the National Weather Bureau and transferred to the Department of Agriculture in ________.

A)1867
B)1890
C)1905
D)1935

Answer 3

B

Question 4

List the variables that would need to be taken into account if a person wanted to forecast the next day's temperatures.

Question 5

Explain how weather forecasting blends art and science.

Question 6

Which of the following is not a consideration when making a weather forecast?

A)cloud cover
B)humidity
C)nearby seismic activity
D)updrafts and downdrafts

Question 7

________ forecasting uses sophisticated computer programs.

Question 8

This forecast is issued at designated times each day and extends out to a week into the future.

A)zone forecast
B)extended forecast
C)nowcast
D)none of these

Question 9

In order to make a forecast,

A)detailed information only about atmospheric conditions east and west of the forecast location is needed.
B)detailed information only about atmospheric conditions north and south of the forecast location is needed.
C)detailed information only about atmospheric conditions above the ground is needed.
D)detailed information about atmospheric conditions in all three dimensions is needed.

Question 10

Weather forecasting

A)involves a set of interlocking problems, each difficult to solve in isolation let alone in combination.
B)involves a set of interlocking problems, each easy to solve in isolation but difficult in combination.
C)should be an exact process within five years.
D)should be an exact process within 20 years.

Question 11

Which of the following would offer the best chance of predicting features of lake-enhanced snowfall at a localized area of Lake Ontario coastline in greater detail?

A)a large-domain numerical forecast model
B)a small-domain numerical forecast model
C)a large-domain numerical forecast model with spectral representation
D)a large-domain numerical forecast model with spectral representation and cloud parameterizations

Question 12

Large-domain numerical forecast models predict air mass thunderstorms using

A)infrared images.
B)spectral representation.
C)thermodynamic diagrams.
D)parameterizations.

Question 13

Making a local weather forecast requires

A)knowledge of current local weather conditions.
B)knowledge of current regional weather conditions.
C)knowledge of current local and regional weather conditions.
D)a barometer.

Question 14

What is the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)and how is it used in weather forecasting?

Question 15

The position of the polar front jet stream over North America would be best predicted by

A)a numerical forecast model with a small domain.
B)a numerical forecast model with a large domain.
C)a parameterization within a numerical forecast model with a small domain.
D)a grid representation within a numerical forecast model with a small domain.

Question 16

Weather forecasting is imperfect because

A)observations are not taken often enough.
B)observations are not close enough together.
C)the atmosphere is a continuum, taking observations breaks the continuum.
D)All of these answers.

Question 17

Numerical forecast models predict ________ weather phenomena using

A)parameterizations
B)assumptions
C)bias
D)the K-index

Question 18

Numerical forecast models with ________ scales can predict weather phenomena with ________ detail.

A)smaller; less
B)smaller; greater
C)larger; less
D)larger; greater

Question 19

The type of weather forecast that looks at long-term averages is the

A)persistence forecast.
B)climatological forecast.
C)numerical weather forecast.
D)analog approach.

Question 20

Forecasting cloud conditions is important because

A)cloud cover affects the absorption and emission of water vapor, which in turn influences surface temperature.
B)cloud cover affects the absorption and emission of longwave radiation, which in turn influences surface temperature.
C)cloud cover affects the absorption and emission of shortwave radiation, which in turn influences surface temperature.
D)cloud cover affects the absorption and emission of specific humidity, which in turn influences surface temperature.

Question 21

The meteorologist at your local TV station says "There is a 60% chance of rain tomorrow." This is an example of

A)numerical weather forecasting.
B)forecast bias.
C)a qualitative forecast.
D)a probability forecast.

Question 22

This makes no use of numbers

A)quantitative forecast.
B)a forecast based on computer modeling.
C)probability forecast.
D)qualitative forecast.

Question 23

Define and explain the differences between forecast quality and forecast value.

Question 24

A prediction of "partly cloudy" is an example of

A)a quantitative forecast.
B)a qualitative forecast.
C)a probability forecast.
D)an analog forecast.

Question 25

Pattern forecasting

A)is not a valid technique and should seldom be used.
B)is used only by forecasters who do not understand the atmosphere.
C)is the same as the analog approach and is a useful and valid technique.
D)is used only when one has no other information to go by.

Question 26

Forecast value

A)is a measure of how well the forecast matches actual conditions.
B)depends on forecast skill.
C)refers to the usefulness of a forecast.
D)is the same for all people in the area for which the forecast is made.

Question 27

An analog forecast

A)requires knowledge of local weather conditions at the time the forecast is made.
B)requires knowledge of regional weather conditions at the time the forecast is made.
C)requires knowledge of both local and regional weather conditions, only on the day before the forecast is made.
D)requires knowledge of a long history of local and regional weather conditions.

Question 28

This is an example of

A)a quantitative forecast.
B)a qualitative forecast.
C)a probability forecast.
D)an analog forecast.

Question 29

A persistence forecast

A)requires knowledge of local weather conditions at the time the forecast is made.
B)requires knowledge of both local and regional weather conditions the day before the forecast is made.
C)requires knowledge of local weather conditions in previous years.
D)requires knowledge of regional weather conditions in previous years.

Question 30

The systematic under- or over-prediction of weather phenomena is called ________.

Question 31

A ________ forecast relies entirely on current conditions with no reference to climatology.

A)climatological
B)dynamic
C)persistence
D)numerical

Question 32

The type of weather forecast that uses information from past well-known conditions that are similar to current conditions is called

A)the analog approach.
B)numerical weather forecasting.
C)climatological forecasting.
D)persistence forecasting.

Question 33

A forecaster that consistently overpredicts the daily high temperature has

A)a forecast bias and a mean absolute forecast error larger than zero.
B)a forecast bias and no mean absolute forecast error.
C)no forecast bias and a mean absolute forecast error larger than zero.
D)no forecast bias and no mean absolute forecast error.

Question 34

Probability forecasts

A)are nothing more than quantified guesses.
B)are totally worthless for operational work.
C)are useful in that they give the forecaster an "out" in case the forecast is bad.
D)are useful in that they give the operational customer an idea of how often one can expect certain atmospheric conditions to occur.

Question 35

All of the following statements about forecast quality are true,except

A)it is not affected by forecast skill.
B)it is related to forecast accuracy.
C)it takes into account forecast bias.
D)it takes into account the agreement between prediction and reality.

Question 36

This is an example of

A)a quantitative forecast.
B)a qualitative forecast.
C)a probability forecast.
D)an analog forecast.

Question 37

Forecast skill is very important because

A)operational people use the forecast to make decisions.
B)the forecasters develop a bad attitude when they "bust" a forecast.
C)the National Weather Service gets sued every time a forecast is bad.
D)None of these-forecast skill is unimportant because no one believes any of the forecasts that are made anyway.

Question 38

________ forecasts are forecasts in which the chance of some event is stated.

A)Qualitative
B)Quantitative
C)Short range
D)Probability

Question 39

Climatological forecasts

A)require knowledge of local and regional weather conditions at the time the forecast is made.
B)require knowledge of both local and regional weather conditions the day before the forecast is made.
C)require knowledge of local weather conditions in previous years.
D)require knowledge of regional weather conditions in previous years.

Question 40

A forecast model that consistently over or under forecasts certain weather predictors suffers from

A)computational migraines.
B)forecast bias.
C)lack of data.
D)poor data assimilation.

Question 41

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)collects data from over ________ land and ocean locations.

Question 42

Sea surface temperature forecasts are based on

A)an analog statistical model.
B)a "canonical" statistical model based on correlations measured over space and time.
C)a numerical model.
D)all of the these

Question 43

A(n)________ is used to measure atmospheric conditions above the surface.

A)radiosonde
B)ASOS unit
C)AWIPS station
D)ensemble forecast

Question 44

What is the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)and what is their main function?

Question 45

A Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)

A)operates only at night.
B)measures vertical temperature profiles.
C)orbits at 800 miles.
D)cannot be used during the vernal equinox.

Question 46

What instruments are used to obtain measurements of horizontal winds for up to 72 different levels?

A)Doppler radar
B)wind profilers
C)radiosondes
D)rawinsondes

Question 47

How many times a day are radiosondes launched for upper-air data?

A)once
B)twice
C)three
D)four

Question 48

What is the main difference in operation between the current NEXRAD Doppler radar and the dual-polarization radars of the future?

Question 49

Explain the importance of the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS)to the weather forecasting process.

Question 50

A ________ stays far above a fixed point on the earth.

Question 51

How many Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)are there in the United States?

A)36
B)67
C)119
D)1,200

Question 52

Explain the benefits of upgrading the current NEXRAD Doppler radar network to dual-polarization technology.

Question 53

The National Weather Service had this many primary models for forecasting.

A)one
B)two
C)three
D)four

Question 54

In the United States,the most important reason for the increased capacity to analyze weather has been

A)increased government funding for research.
B)improvement in technology.
C)better knowledge of meteorology.
D)more complete information on surface weather conditions.

Question 55

The World Meteorological Organization

A)is under the auspices of the European Union.
B)has about 50 member nations.
C)transmits its data from three regional centers.
D)does not have any weather sensors for oceans.

Question 56

The starting point in the forecasting process is

A)good data.
B)expensive computers.
C)excellent television graphics.
D)an uninformed population.

Question 57

Most radiosondes

A)are recovered and recycled.
B)land within a few hundred meters of their launching sites.
C)take nearly an hour to descend.
D)are launched into the stratosphere.

Question 58

Radiosondes

A)are launched only in industrialized countries.
B)make observations only at certain time intervals.
C)provide information for the calculation of dew points.
D)cannot be accurately tracked once launched.

Question 59

Wind profilers are vertically-pointing Doppler radars that provide

A)temperature.
B)moisture.
C)winds.
D)cloud heights.

Question 60

The prediction phase of forecasting

A)involves using the governing equations.
B)applies equations only once.
C)is not run on a computer.
D)is used only in short-term forecasts.

Question 61

Observations are used to supply values corresponding to the starting or current state of the atmosphere for all of the variables carried in the model.

A)analysis
B)prediction
C)post-processing
D)none of these

Question 62

Which of the following are statistics outputted by the MOS?

A)maximum temperature
B)dew point
C)probability of precipitation
D)all of these answers

Question 63

Short-term forecasts are typically for periods of ________ hours or less.

Question 64

Ensemble forecasting

A)is rarely used.
B)uses several runs for the same forecast period.
C)cancels out the chaos effect.
D)allows accurate forecasting for at least two weeks.

Question 65

This type of forecast would predict average conditions for a three-month period: ________.

Question 66

The numerical models used by today's forecasters span about this many size magnitudes.

A)three
B)five
C)seven
D)nine

Question 67

The running of sequential calculations is part of the ________ phase of forecasting.

Question 68

Currently,forecasts are least accurate in predicting

A)temperature.
B)wind.
C)pressure distributions.
D)precipitation amounts.

Question 69

Meteorologists use all of the following to compute the sea-surface temperature for the Eastern Pacific,except

A)a persistence model.
B)an analog statistical model.
C)a numerical model.
D)a "canonical" statistical model using correlations measured over time and space.

Question 70

Long-range weather forecasts in the United States originate at the ________.

Question 71

List two methods used by scientists at the Climate Prediction Center as they prepare long-range forecasts.

Question 72

Long-range forecasts

A)typically do not include time spans longer than three weeks.
B)do not rely on subjective judgment.
C)use numerical models.
D)are too complex to make use of statistics.

Question 73

Model output statistics

A)are for primary variables only.
B)are not developed for numerical models.
C)attempt to take into account local factors such as topography.
D)do not include the probability of precipitation values.

Question 74

________ explains why small disturbances can grow into large disturbances.

Question 75

This is the proper order of the forecasting phases.

A)analysis, prediction, post-processing
B)prediction, post-processing, analysis
C)prediction, analysis, post-processing
D)post-processing, prediction, analysis

Question 76

This ________ predicts average temperature conditions for a season.

A)seasonal categorical forecast
B)seasonal outlook
C)seasonal quantitative forecast
D)seasonal ensemble forecast

Question 77

Seasonal outlooks

A)are not considered true long-range forecasts.
B)predict conditions for individual days.
C)always give a definite prediction.
D)have three main categories of classification.

Question 78

Which of the following is a model that generates forecasts for up to 7 days?

A)NGM
B)BUFKIT
C)ECMWF
D)GFS

Question 79

Medium-range forecasts

A)are longer in Europe than in the United States.
B)typically predict the weather for the next two to four days.
C)use essentially the same procedures as short-term forecasting.
D)uses statistics rather than a numerical approach.

Question 80

Describe in detail the three phases of numerical forecasting.