تكلم مع الذكاء الاصطناعي
Deck 9: Decision Analysis
ملء الشاشة (f)
سؤال
سؤال
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سؤال
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Figure 
The maximin strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
The maximin strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
Figure
The maximum likelihood strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
The maximum likelihood strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
Figure
The maximax strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
The maximax strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
سؤال
Figure
The construction manager for ABC Construction must decide whether to build single family homes,apartments,or condominiums.he estimates annual profits (in $000)will vary with the population trend as follows:
If he uses Bayes' decision rule,which kind of dwellings will he decide to build?
A)Single family.
B)Apartments.
C)Condos.
D)Either single family or apartments.
E)Either apartments or condos.
The construction manager for ABC Construction must decide whether to build single family homes,apartments,or condominiums.he estimates annual profits (in $000)will vary with the population trend as follows:
If he uses Bayes' decision rule,which kind of dwellings will he decide to build?
A)Single family.
B)Apartments.
C)Condos.
D)Either single family or apartments.
E)Either apartments or condos.
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
Figure
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)12.
B)55.
C)57.
D)69.
E)90.
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)12.
B)55.
C)57.
D)69.
E)90.
سؤال
Figure
The Bayes' decision rule strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
The Bayes' decision rule strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
سؤال
Figure 
The maximum likelihood strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
The maximum likelihood strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
سؤال
Figure
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)-28.
B)0.
C)10.5.
D)19.
E)23.
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)-28.
B)0.
C)10.5.
D)19.
E)23.
سؤال
سؤال
Figure
The Bayes' decision rule strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
The Bayes' decision rule strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
سؤال
Figure
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should purchase a small,medium,or large new bus for his company.He estimates that the annual profits (in $000)will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low,moderate,or high,as follows.
If he uses the maximum likelihood criterion,which size bus will he decide to purchase?
A)Small.
B)Medium.
C)Large.
D)Either small or medium.
E)Either medium or large.
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should purchase a small,medium,or large new bus for his company.He estimates that the annual profits (in $000)will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low,moderate,or high,as follows.
If he uses the maximum likelihood criterion,which size bus will he decide to purchase?
A)Small.
B)Medium.
C)Large.
D)Either small or medium.
E)Either medium or large.
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
Figure
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should purchase a small,medium,or large new bus for his company.He estimates that the annual profits (in $000)will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low,moderate,or high,as follows.
If he uses Bayes' decision rule,which size bus will he decide to purchase?
A)Small.
B)Medium.
C)Large.
D)Either small or medium.
E)Either medium or large.
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should purchase a small,medium,or large new bus for his company.He estimates that the annual profits (in $000)will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low,moderate,or high,as follows.
If he uses Bayes' decision rule,which size bus will he decide to purchase?
A)Small.
B)Medium.
C)Large.
D)Either small or medium.
E)Either medium or large.
سؤال
Figure
The maximin strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
The maximin strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
سؤال
سؤال
Figure
The maximax strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
The maximax strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
سؤال
Figure
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)4.5.
B)9.
C)40.5.
D)49.5.
E)60.
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)4.5.
B)9.
C)40.5.
D)49.5.
E)60.
سؤال
Figure
The construction manager for ABC Construction must decide whether to build single family homes,apartments,or condominiums.he estimates annual profits (in $000)will vary with the population trend as follows:
If he uses the maximum likelihood criterion,which kind of dwellings will he decide to build?
A)Single family.
B)Apartments.
C)Condos.
D)Either single family or apartments.
E)Either apartments or condos.
The construction manager for ABC Construction must decide whether to build single family homes,apartments,or condominiums.he estimates annual profits (in $000)will vary with the population trend as follows:
If he uses the maximum likelihood criterion,which kind of dwellings will he decide to build?
A)Single family.
B)Apartments.
C)Condos.
D)Either single family or apartments.
E)Either apartments or condos.
سؤال
سؤال
Figure 
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is done,what is the expected payoff using Bayes' decision rule?
A)-82.
B)-44.
C)0.
D)29.
E)40.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done,what is the expected payoff using Bayes' decision rule?
A)-82.
B)-44.
C)0.
D)29.
E)40.
سؤال
سؤال
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is not done,what is the expected payoff using Bayes' decision rule?
A)0.
B)29.
C)40.
D)75.
E)100.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is not done,what is the expected payoff using Bayes' decision rule?
A)0.
B)29.
C)40.
D)75.
E)100.
سؤال
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the posterior probability of S1 given that the research predicts S1?
A)0.18.
B)0.44.
C)0.57.
D)0.65.
E)0.82.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.What is the posterior probability of S1 given that the research predicts S1?
A)0.18.
B)0.44.
C)0.57.
D)0.65.
E)0.82.
سؤال
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S1 and the research predicts S1?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S1 and the research predicts S1?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S1 and the research predicts S2?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S1 and the research predicts S2?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
سؤال
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S1?
A)0.32.
B)0.4.
C)0.44.
D)0.56.
E)0.6.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S1?
A)0.32.
B)0.4.
C)0.44.
D)0.56.
E)0.6.
سؤال
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S2?
A)0.32.
B)0.4.
C)0.44.
D)0.56.
E)0.6.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S2?
A)0.32.
B)0.4.
C)0.44.
D)0.56.
E)0.6.
سؤال
سؤال
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the expected value of perfect information?
A)40.
B)45.
C)75.
D)85.
E)100.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.What is the expected value of perfect information?
A)40.
B)45.
C)75.
D)85.
E)100.
سؤال
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S2 and the research predicts S2?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S2 and the research predicts S2?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?
A)0.18.
B)0.44.
C)0.57.
D)0.65.
E)0.82.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?
A)0.18.
B)0.44.
C)0.57.
D)0.65.
E)0.82.
سؤال
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S2 and the research predicts S1?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S2 and the research predicts S1?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
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العب
ملء الشاشة (f)
Deck 9: Decision Analysis
1
Bayes' decision rule says to choose the alternative with the largest expected payoff.
True
2
The equally likely criterion assigns a probability of 0.5 to each state of nature.
False
3
Graphical analysis can only be used in sensitivity analysis for those problems that have two decision alternatives.
False
4
The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest payoff.
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5
Prior probabilities refer to the relative likelihood of possible states of nature.
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6
In decision analysis,states of nature refer to possible future conditions.
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7
The maximin criterion is an optimistic criterion.
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8
States of nature are alternatives available to a decision maker.
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9
Payoffs always represent profits in decision analysis problems.
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10
Using Bayes' decision rule will always lead to larger payoffs.
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11
The maximum likelihood criterion ignores the payoffs for states of nature other than the most likely one.
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12
A decision tree branches out all of the possible decisions and all of the possible events.
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13
The maximum likelihood criterion says to focus on the largest payoff.
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14
A event node in a decision tree indicates that a decision needs to be made at that point.
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15
An example of maximax decision making is a person buying lottery tickets in hopes of a very big payoff.
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16
An advantage of payoff tables compared to decision trees is that they permit us to analyze situations involving sequential decisions.
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17
Sensitivity analysis may be useful in decision analysis since prior probabilities may be inaccurate.
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18
The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative that has the "best worst" payoff.
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19
The maximax approach is an optimistic strategy.
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20
Payoff tables may include only non-negative numbers.
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21
Figure
The maximin strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
The maximin strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
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22
An advantage of Sensit's Spider graph when compared to Sensit's Tornado chart is that it allows data values to be varied by different percentages.
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23
The exponential utility function assumes a constant aversion to risk.
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24
Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the "best worst" is the criterion called:
A)minimin.
B)maximin.
C)maximax.
D)maximum likelihood.
E)Bayes decision rule.
A)minimin.
B)maximin.
C)maximax.
D)maximum likelihood.
E)Bayes decision rule.
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25
A posterior probability is a revised probability of a state of nature after doing a test or survey to refine the prior probability.
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26
The maximin criterion refers to:
A)minimizing the maximum return.
B)maximizing the minimum return.
C)choosing the alternative with the highest payoff.
D)choosing the alternative with the minimum payoff.
E)None of the above.
A)minimizing the maximum return.
B)maximizing the minimum return.
C)choosing the alternative with the highest payoff.
D)choosing the alternative with the minimum payoff.
E)None of the above.
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27
Testing how a problem solution reacts to changes in one or more of the model parameters is called:
A)analysis of tradeoffs.
B)sensitivity analysis.
C)priority recognition.
D)analysis of variance.
E)decision analysis.
A)analysis of tradeoffs.
B)sensitivity analysis.
C)priority recognition.
D)analysis of variance.
E)decision analysis.
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28
Which one of the following statements is not correct when making decisions?
A)The sum of the state of nature probabilities must be 1.
B)Every probability must be greater than or equal to 0.
C)All probabilities are assumed to be equal.
D)Probabilities are used to compute expected values.
E)Perfect information assumes that the state of nature that will actually occur is known.
A)The sum of the state of nature probabilities must be 1.
B)Every probability must be greater than or equal to 0.
C)All probabilities are assumed to be equal.
D)Probabilities are used to compute expected values.
E)Perfect information assumes that the state of nature that will actually occur is known.
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29
The Sensit Spider graph is useful for examining the impact of changes in several data values at once.
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30
Figure
The maximum likelihood strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
The maximum likelihood strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
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31
Bayes' theorem is a formula for determining prior probabilities of a state of nature.
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32
Which of the following is not a criterion for decision making?
A)EVPI.
B)Maximin.
C)Maximax.
D)Bayes' decision rule.
E)Maximum likelihood.
A)EVPI.
B)Maximin.
C)Maximax.
D)Bayes' decision rule.
E)Maximum likelihood.
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33
A utility function for money can be constructed by applying a lottery procedure.
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34
The EVPI indicates an upper limit in the amount a decision-maker should be willing to spend to obtain information.
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35
The Sensit Plot tool is useful for examining the impact of changes in several data values at once.
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36
Most people occupy a middle ground and are classified as risk neutral.
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37
Utilities can be useful when monetary values do not accurately reflect the true values of an outcome.
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38
A risk seeker has a decreasing marginal utility for money.
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39
Two people who face the same problem and use the same decision-making methodology must always arrive at the same decision.
Multiple Choice Questions
Multiple Choice Questions
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40
Figure
The maximax strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
The maximax strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
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41
Figure
The construction manager for ABC Construction must decide whether to build single family homes,apartments,or condominiums.he estimates annual profits (in $000)will vary with the population trend as follows:
If he uses Bayes' decision rule,which kind of dwellings will he decide to build?
A)Single family.
B)Apartments.
C)Condos.
D)Either single family or apartments.
E)Either apartments or condos.
The construction manager for ABC Construction must decide whether to build single family homes,apartments,or condominiums.he estimates annual profits (in $000)will vary with the population trend as follows:
If he uses Bayes' decision rule,which kind of dwellings will he decide to build?
A)Single family.
B)Apartments.
C)Condos.
D)Either single family or apartments.
E)Either apartments or condos.
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42
What is the probability that script #1 will be a success,but its sequel will not?
A)0.8.
B)0.7.
C)0.56.
D)0.2.
E)0.14.
A)0.8.
B)0.7.
C)0.56.
D)0.2.
E)0.14.
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43
What is the expected annual profit for the dwellings that he will decide to build using Bayes' decision rule?
A)$187,000.
B)$132,000.
C)$123,000.
D)$65,000.
E)$55,000.
A)$187,000.
B)$132,000.
C)$123,000.
D)$65,000.
E)$55,000.
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44
What is the expected annual profit for the bus that he will decide to purchase using Bayes' decision rule?
A)$15,000.
B)$61,000.
C)$69,000.
D)$72,000.
E)$87,000.
A)$15,000.
B)$61,000.
C)$69,000.
D)$72,000.
E)$87,000.
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45
Figure
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)12.
B)55.
C)57.
D)69.
E)90.
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)12.
B)55.
C)57.
D)69.
E)90.
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46
Figure
The Bayes' decision rule strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
The Bayes' decision rule strategy is:
A)Buy.
B)Rent.
C)Lease.
D)High.
E)Low.
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47
Figure
The maximum likelihood strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
The maximum likelihood strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
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48
Figure
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)-28.
B)0.
C)10.5.
D)19.
E)23.
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)-28.
B)0.
C)10.5.
D)19.
E)23.
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49
What is the expected payoff from selecting script #1?
A)$150 million.
B)$90.6 million.
C)$84 million.
D)$72 million.
E)$60 million.
A)$150 million.
B)$90.6 million.
C)$84 million.
D)$72 million.
E)$60 million.
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50
Figure
The Bayes' decision rule strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
The Bayes' decision rule strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
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51
Figure
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should purchase a small,medium,or large new bus for his company.He estimates that the annual profits (in $000)will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low,moderate,or high,as follows.
If he uses the maximum likelihood criterion,which size bus will he decide to purchase?
A)Small.
B)Medium.
C)Large.
D)Either small or medium.
E)Either medium or large.
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should purchase a small,medium,or large new bus for his company.He estimates that the annual profits (in $000)will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low,moderate,or high,as follows.
If he uses the maximum likelihood criterion,which size bus will he decide to purchase?
A)Small.
B)Medium.
C)Large.
D)Either small or medium.
E)Either medium or large.
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52
What is his expected value of perfect information?
A)$187,000.
B)$132,000.
C)$123,000.
D)$65,000.
E)$55,000.
The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production.She feels that script #1 has a 70% chance of earning $100 million over the long run,but a 30% chance of losing $20 million.If this movie is successful,then a sequel could also be produced,with an 80% chance of earning $50 million,but a 20% chance of losing $10 million.On the other hand,she feels that script #2 has a 60 % chance of earning $120 million,but a 40% chance of losing $30 million.If successful,its sequel would have a 50% chance of earning $80 million and a 50% chance of losing $40 million.As with the first script,if the original movie is a "flop",then no sequel would be produced.
A)$187,000.
B)$132,000.
C)$123,000.
D)$65,000.
E)$55,000.
The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production.She feels that script #1 has a 70% chance of earning $100 million over the long run,but a 30% chance of losing $20 million.If this movie is successful,then a sequel could also be produced,with an 80% chance of earning $50 million,but a 20% chance of losing $10 million.On the other hand,she feels that script #2 has a 60 % chance of earning $120 million,but a 40% chance of losing $30 million.If successful,its sequel would have a 50% chance of earning $80 million and a 50% chance of losing $40 million.As with the first script,if the original movie is a "flop",then no sequel would be produced.
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53
What would be the total payoff is script #1 were a success,but its sequel were not?
A)$150 million.
B)$100 million.
C)$90 million.
D)$50 million.
E)$-10 million.
A)$150 million.
B)$100 million.
C)$90 million.
D)$50 million.
E)$-10 million.
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54
Figure
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should purchase a small,medium,or large new bus for his company.He estimates that the annual profits (in $000)will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low,moderate,or high,as follows.
If he uses Bayes' decision rule,which size bus will he decide to purchase?
A)Small.
B)Medium.
C)Large.
D)Either small or medium.
E)Either medium or large.
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should purchase a small,medium,or large new bus for his company.He estimates that the annual profits (in $000)will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low,moderate,or high,as follows.
If he uses Bayes' decision rule,which size bus will he decide to purchase?
A)Small.
B)Medium.
C)Large.
D)Either small or medium.
E)Either medium or large.
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55
Figure
The maximin strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
The maximin strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
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56
What is the expected payoff from selecting script #2?
A)$150 million.
B)$90.6 million.
C)$84 million.
D)$72 million.
E)$60 million.
A)$150 million.
B)$90.6 million.
C)$84 million.
D)$72 million.
E)$60 million.
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57
Figure
The maximax strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
The maximax strategy is:
A)small.
B)medium.
C)medium large.
D)large.
E)extra large.
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58
Figure
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)4.5.
B)9.
C)40.5.
D)49.5.
E)60.
The expected value of perfect information is:
A)4.5.
B)9.
C)40.5.
D)49.5.
E)60.
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59
Figure
The construction manager for ABC Construction must decide whether to build single family homes,apartments,or condominiums.he estimates annual profits (in $000)will vary with the population trend as follows:
If he uses the maximum likelihood criterion,which kind of dwellings will he decide to build?
A)Single family.
B)Apartments.
C)Condos.
D)Either single family or apartments.
E)Either apartments or condos.
The construction manager for ABC Construction must decide whether to build single family homes,apartments,or condominiums.he estimates annual profits (in $000)will vary with the population trend as follows:
If he uses the maximum likelihood criterion,which kind of dwellings will he decide to build?
A)Single family.
B)Apartments.
C)Condos.
D)Either single family or apartments.
E)Either apartments or condos.
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60
What is his expected value of perfect information?
A)$15,000.
B)$61,000.
C)$69,000.
D)$72,000.
E)$87,000.
A)$15,000.
B)$61,000.
C)$69,000.
D)$72,000.
E)$87,000.
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61
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is done,what is the expected payoff using Bayes' decision rule?
A)-82.
B)-44.
C)0.
D)29.
E)40.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done,what is the expected payoff using Bayes' decision rule?
A)-82.
B)-44.
C)0.
D)29.
E)40.
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62
What is the probability that the statistics book would wind up being placed with a smaller publisher?
A)0.6.
B)0.5.
C)0.4.
D)0.3.
E)0.
A)0.6.
B)0.5.
C)0.4.
D)0.3.
E)0.
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63
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is not done,what is the expected payoff using Bayes' decision rule?
A)0.
B)29.
C)40.
D)75.
E)100.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is not done,what is the expected payoff using Bayes' decision rule?
A)0.
B)29.
C)40.
D)75.
E)100.
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64
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the posterior probability of S1 given that the research predicts S1?
A)0.18.
B)0.44.
C)0.57.
D)0.65.
E)0.82.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.What is the posterior probability of S1 given that the research predicts S1?
A)0.18.
B)0.44.
C)0.57.
D)0.65.
E)0.82.
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65
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S1 and the research predicts S1?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S1 and the research predicts S1?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
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66
What is the expected payoff for the optimum decision alternative?
A)$150 million.
B)$90.6 million.
C)$84 million.
D)$72 million.
E)$60 million.
Two professors at a nearby university want to co-author a new textbook in either economics or statistics.They feel that if they write an economics book they have a 50% chance of placing it with a major publisher where it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies.If they can't get a major publisher to take it,then they feel they have an 80% chance of placing it with a smaller publisher,with sales of 30,000 copies.On the other hand if they write a statistics book,they feel they have a 40% chance of placing it with a major publisher,and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies.If they can't get a major publisher to take it,they feel they have a 50% chance of placing it with a smaller publisher,with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies.
A)$150 million.
B)$90.6 million.
C)$84 million.
D)$72 million.
E)$60 million.
Two professors at a nearby university want to co-author a new textbook in either economics or statistics.They feel that if they write an economics book they have a 50% chance of placing it with a major publisher where it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies.If they can't get a major publisher to take it,then they feel they have an 80% chance of placing it with a smaller publisher,with sales of 30,000 copies.On the other hand if they write a statistics book,they feel they have a 40% chance of placing it with a major publisher,and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies.If they can't get a major publisher to take it,they feel they have a 50% chance of placing it with a smaller publisher,with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies.
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67
What is the expected payoff for the optimum decision alternative?
A)50,000 copies.
B)40,000 copies.
C)32,000 copies.
D)30,500 copies.
E)10,500 copies.
A)50,000 copies.
B)40,000 copies.
C)32,000 copies.
D)30,500 copies.
E)10,500 copies.
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68
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S1 and the research predicts S2?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S1 and the research predicts S2?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
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69
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S1?
A)0.32.
B)0.4.
C)0.44.
D)0.56.
E)0.6.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S1?
A)0.32.
B)0.4.
C)0.44.
D)0.56.
E)0.6.
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70
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S2?
A)0.32.
B)0.4.
C)0.44.
D)0.56.
E)0.6.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S2?
A)0.32.
B)0.4.
C)0.44.
D)0.56.
E)0.6.
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71
What is the expected payoff for the decision to write the economics book?
A)50,000 copies.
B)40,000 copies.
C)32,000 copies.
D)30,500 copies.
E)10,500 copies.
A)50,000 copies.
B)40,000 copies.
C)32,000 copies.
D)30,500 copies.
E)10,500 copies.
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72
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the expected value of perfect information?
A)40.
B)45.
C)75.
D)85.
E)100.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.What is the expected value of perfect information?
A)40.
B)45.
C)75.
D)85.
E)100.
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افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 77 في هذه المجموعة.
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73
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S2 and the research predicts S2?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S2 and the research predicts S2?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 77 في هذه المجموعة.
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74
What is the expected payoff for the decision to write the statistics book?
A)50,000 copies.
B)40,000 copies.
C)32,000 copies.
D)30,500 copies.
E)10,500 copies.
A)50,000 copies.
B)40,000 copies.
C)32,000 copies.
D)30,500 copies.
E)10,500 copies.
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75
What is the probability that the economics book would wind up being placed with a smaller publisher?
A)0.8.
B)0.5.
C)0.4.
D)0.2.
E)0.1.
A)0.8.
B)0.5.
C)0.4.
D)0.2.
E)0.1.
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 77 في هذه المجموعة.
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76
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?
A)0.18.
B)0.44.
C)0.57.
D)0.65.
E)0.82.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?
A)0.18.
B)0.44.
C)0.57.
D)0.65.
E)0.82.
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 77 في هذه المجموعة.
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k this deck
77
Figure There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S2 and the research predicts S1?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur.When the true state of nature is S1,the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time.When the true state of nature is S2,the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done,what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S2 and the research predicts S1?
A)0.08.
B)0.16.
C)0.24.
D)0.32.
E)0.36.
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 77 في هذه المجموعة.
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k this deck
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 77 في هذه المجموعة.
