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Deck 19: Decision Analysis
ملء الشاشة (f)
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Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. 
Using the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
Using the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. 
Using the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.2,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
Using the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.2,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
سؤال
سؤال
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. 
The opportunity loss for the combination "S3" and "d1" is ___.
A)9
B)5
C)3
D)0
E)-1
The opportunity loss for the combination "S3" and "d1" is ___.A)9
B)5
C)3
D)0
E)-1
سؤال
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. 
Using the maximin criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
Using the maximin criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. 
The opportunity loss for the combination "S2" and "d1" is ___.
A)9
B)5
C)3
D)0
E)-1
The opportunity loss for the combination "S2" and "d1" is ___.A)9
B)5
C)3
D)0
E)-1
سؤال
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. 
Using the maximax criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
Using the maximax criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternative s to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions:
For the combination of 'Bear' and 'Mixture',the opportunity loss is ___.
A)0
B)5
C)13
D)33
E)-10
For the combination of 'Bear' and 'Mixture',the opportunity loss is ___.A)0
B)5
C)13
D)33
E)-10
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: 
For the 'Stocks' and 'Bonds' choices,the indifference value of Hurwicz's alpha is ___.
A)0.82
B)0.71
C)0.65
D)0.33
E)0.50
For the 'Stocks' and 'Bonds' choices,the indifference value of Hurwicz's alpha is ___.A)0.82
B)0.71
C)0.65
D)0.33
E)0.50
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: 
If Ray uses the maximin criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
If Ray uses the maximin criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: 
The EMV of investing in Stocks is ___.
A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
The EMV of investing in Stocks is ___.A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
سؤال
Melissa Rossi,Product Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for introducing a new package for toothpaste.She has identified four alternative markets,and has constructed the following table which shows NCI's rewards (in $1,000,000's)for various levels of acceptance by the markets and their probabilities: 
The EMV of introducing the new package in the "Northeast only" market is ___.
A)$50,000
B)$70,000
C)$90,000
D)$260,000
E)$300,000
The EMV of introducing the new package in the "Northeast only" market is ___.A)$50,000
B)$70,000
C)$90,000
D)$260,000
E)$300,000
سؤال
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: 
The opportunity loss for the combination "Purchase New Equipment" and "Low" is ___.
A)0.5
B)1.5
C)2.5
D)3.0
E)3.5
The opportunity loss for the combination "Purchase New Equipment" and "Low" is ___.A)0.5
B)1.5
C)2.5
D)3.0
E)3.5
سؤال
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: 
The opportunity loss for the combination "Purchase New Equipment" and "High" is ___.
A)0.0
B)0.5
C)2.5
D)3.0
E)3.5
The opportunity loss for the combination "Purchase New Equipment" and "High" is ___.A)0.0
B)0.5
C)2.5
D)3.0
E)3.5
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: 
For the combination of 'T-Bills' and 'Neutral',the opportunity loss is ___.
A)0
B)5
C)7
D)8
E)-10
For the combination of 'T-Bills' and 'Neutral',the opportunity loss is ___.A)0
B)5
C)7
D)8
E)-10
سؤال
Melissa Rossi,Product Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for introducing a new package for toothpaste.She has identified four alternative markets,and has constructed the following table which shows NCI's rewards (in $1,000,000's)for various levels of acceptance by the markets and their probabilities: 
The EMV of introducing the new package in the "National" market is ___.
A)$50,000
B)$70,000
C)$90,000
D)$260,000
E)$300,000
The EMV of introducing the new package in the "National" market is ___.A)$50,000
B)$70,000
C)$90,000
D)$260,000
E)$300,000
سؤال
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: 
If Trey uses the maximax criterion,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.
A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
If Trey uses the maximax criterion,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: 
If Ray uses the maximax criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
If Ray uses the maximax criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: 
If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate choice is ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate choice is ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: 
If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.5,the appropriate choice is ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.5,the appropriate choice is ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: 
For the 'T-Bills' and 'Bonds' choices,the indifference value of Hurwicz's alpha is ___.
A)0.8267
B)0.7134
C)0.6555
D)0.3333
E)0.5000
For the 'T-Bills' and 'Bonds' choices,the indifference value of Hurwicz's alpha is ___.A)0.8267
B)0.7134
C)0.6555
D)0.3333
E)0.5000
سؤال
Melissa Rossi,Product Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for introducing a new package for toothpaste.She has identified four alternative markets,and has constructed the following table which shows NCI's rewards (in $1,000,000's)for various levels of acceptance by the markets and their probabilities: 
If Melissa uses the EMV criterion,the appropriate choice would be: ___.
A)Northeast only
B)Southeast only
C)National
D)None (don't introduce the new package)
If Melissa uses the EMV criterion,the appropriate choice would be: ___.A)Northeast only
B)Southeast only
C)National
D)None (don't introduce the new package)
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: 
If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.9,the appropriate choice is ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.9,the appropriate choice is ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
سؤال
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: 
If Trey uses the maximin criterion,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.
A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
If Trey uses the maximin criterion,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: 
If Ray uses the EMV criterion,the appropriate choice is ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)Bank CD's
If Ray uses the EMV criterion,the appropriate choice is ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)Bank CD's
سؤال
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: 
If Trey uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.4,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.
A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
If Trey uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.4,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
سؤال
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: 
If Trey uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.
A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
If Trey uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: 
The expected monetary payoff with perfect information is ___.
A)$128,000
B)$137,000
C)$144,000
D)$151,000
E)$127,000
The expected monetary payoff with perfect information is ___.A)$128,000
B)$137,000
C)$144,000
D)$151,000
E)$127,000
سؤال
Melissa Rossi,Product Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for introducing a new package for toothpaste.She has identified four alternative markets,and has constructed the following table which shows NCI's rewards (in $1,000,000's)for various levels of acceptance by the markets and their probabilities: 
The expected monetary payoff with perfect information is ___.
A)$570,000
B)$680,000
C)$760,000
D)$830,000
E)$980,000
The expected monetary payoff with perfect information is ___.A)$570,000
B)$680,000
C)$760,000
D)$830,000
E)$980,000
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: 
The expected value of perfect information is ___.
A)$57,000
B)$63,000
C)$79,000
D)$82,000
E)$87,000
The expected value of perfect information is ___.A)$57,000
B)$63,000
C)$79,000
D)$82,000
E)$87,000
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: 
If the advisor predicts a Bull market the EMV of the Stocks alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.
A)$168,900
B)$207,650
C)$157,300
D)$306,000
E)$134,650
If the advisor predicts a Bull market the EMV of the Stocks alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.A)$168,900
B)$207,650
C)$157,300
D)$306,000
E)$134,650
سؤال
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: 
The EMV of investing in Bonds is ___.
A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
The EMV of investing in Bonds is ___.A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: 
The EMV of investing in Mixture is ___.
A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
The EMV of investing in Mixture is ___.A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: 
If the advisor predicts a Bear market the EMV of the Bonds alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.
A)$36,600
B)$24,600
C)$56,800
D)$48,200
E)$45,800
If the advisor predicts a Bear market the EMV of the Bonds alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.A)$36,600
B)$24,600
C)$56,800
D)$48,200
E)$45,800
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: 
If the advisor predicts a Bear market the EMV of the Stocks alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.
A)$132,300
B)-$73,900
C)$127,600
D)-$99,800
E)$100,000
If the advisor predicts a Bear market the EMV of the Stocks alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.A)$132,300
B)-$73,900
C)$127,600
D)-$99,800
E)$100,000
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: 
The EMV of this investment opportunity with the advisor's prediction is ___.
A)$167,379
B)$174,200
C)$153,900
D)$136,700
E)$140,011
The EMV of this investment opportunity with the advisor's prediction is ___.A)$167,379
B)$174,200
C)$153,900
D)$136,700
E)$140,011
سؤال
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives
And constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for
Various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on
Predicting Bull and Bear markets:
If the advisor predicts a Bull market the EMV of the Bonds alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.
A)$85,240
B)$25,710
C)$108,450
D)$75,480
And constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for
Various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on
Predicting Bull and Bear markets:
If the advisor predicts a Bull market the EMV of the Bonds alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.A)$85,240
B)$25,710
C)$108,450
D)$75,480
سؤال
Melissa Rossi,Product Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for introducing a new package for toothpaste.She has identified four alternative markets,and has constructed the following table which shows NCI's rewards (in $1,000,000's)for various levels of acceptance by the markets and their probabilities: 
The expected value of perfect information is ___.
A)$420,000
B)$570,000
C)$660,000
D)$720,000
E)$890,000
The expected value of perfect information is ___.A)$420,000
B)$570,000
C)$660,000
D)$720,000
E)$890,000
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: 
If the advisor predicts a Bull market,the revised probability of a Bull market,P (S1|F1),is ___.
A)0.877
B)0.894
C)0.953
D)0.923
E)1.000
If the advisor predicts a Bull market,the revised probability of a Bull market,P (S1|F1),is ___.A)0.877
B)0.894
C)0.953
D)0.923
E)1.000
سؤال
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: 
If the advisor predicts a Bear market the revised probability of a Bear market,P (S2|F2),is ___.
A)0.524
B)0.636
C)0.784
D)0.812
E)0.000
If the advisor predicts a Bear market the revised probability of a Bear market,P (S2|F2),is ___.A)0.524
B)0.636
C)0.784
D)0.812
E)0.000
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ملء الشاشة (f)
Deck 19: Decision Analysis
1
Revise probabilities in light of sample information by using Bayesian analysis and calculating the expected value of sample information.
By using Bayes' theorem,the probabilities associated with the states of nature in decision making under risk can be revised when new information is obtained.This information can be helpful to the decision maker.However,it usually carries a cost.This cost can reduce the payoff of decision making with sample information.The EMV with sample information can be compared with the EMV without it to determine the value of sample information.
2
In decision-making under risk,the expected monetary payoff of perfect information is the weighted average of the best payoff for each state of nature (using the probability of the state of nature as the weight).
True
3
Make decisions under risk by constructing decision trees,calculating expected monetary value and expected value of perfect information,and analyzing utility.
In decision making with risk,the decision maker has some prior knowledge of the probability of each occurrence of each state of nature.With these probabilities,a weighted payoff referred to as expected monetary value (EMV)can be calculated for each decision alternative.A person who makes decisions based on these EMVs is called an EMVer.The EMV is essentially the average payoff that would occur if the decision process were to be played out over a long period of time with the probabilities holding constant.
The expected value of perfect information can be determined by comparing the EMV if the states of nature are known to the EMV with no such information.The difference in the two is the expected value of perfect information.Utility refers to a decision maker's propensity to take risks.People who avoid risks are called risk avoiders.People who are prone to take risks are referred to as risk takers.People who use EMV generally fall between these two categories.Utility curves can be sketched to ascertain or depict a decision maker's tendency toward risk.
The expected value of perfect information can be determined by comparing the EMV if the states of nature are known to the EMV with no such information.The difference in the two is the expected value of perfect information.Utility refers to a decision maker's propensity to take risks.People who avoid risks are called risk avoiders.People who are prone to take risks are referred to as risk takers.People who use EMV generally fall between these two categories.Utility curves can be sketched to ascertain or depict a decision maker's tendency toward risk.
4
In a decision-making under uncertainty scenario,the decision maker attempts to develop a strategy based on payoffs since virtually no information is available about which state of nature will occur.
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5
In a decision-making under uncertainty scenario,the decision maker chooses the decision alternative that has the minimum expected (i.e. ,probability-weighted)payoff among all the available alternatives.
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6
In a decision-making scenario,if the decision maker knows which state of nature will occur,the scenario is called decision-making under certainty.
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7
In a decision-making scenario,if it is not known which of the states of nature will occur and further if the probabilities of occurrence of the states are also unknown,the scenario is called decision-making under double risk.
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8
The value of perfect information is the difference between the monetary payoff with perfect information and the expected monetary payoff with no information.
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9
In a decision analysis problem,variables (such as benefits or rewards that result from investments in common stocks or corporate bonds and from a new product launch)which result from selecting a particular decision alternative are called posterior probabilities.
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10
In a decision-making under uncertainty scenario using the strategy of minmax regret,all the entries in the opportunity loss table must be zero or positive.
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11
In a decision-making under uncertainty scenario,the best decision alternative based on the strategy of minmax regret will always have zero regret.
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12
In a decision-making under risk scenario,the expected monetary value of a decision alternative is the weighted average (using the probability of each state of nature as the weight)of the payoffs to the decision alternative in each state of the nature.
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13
Make decisions under uncertainty using the maximax criterion,the maximin criterion,the Hurwicz criterion,and minimax regret.
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14
The expected monetary payoff of perfect information is the value of perfect information.
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15
In a decision analysis problem,variables (such as general macroeconomic conditions)which are not under the decision maker's control are called prior probabilities.
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16
In a decision-making scenario,if it is not known which of the states of nature will occur but the probabilities of occurrence of the states are known.the scenario is called decision-making under risk.
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17
Make decisions under certainty by constructing a decision table.
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18
In decision-making under risk,the expected monetary value without information is the largest of the expected monetary values for the various decision alternatives.
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19
In a decision-making under risk scenario,the expected monetary value of a decision alternative is the arithmetic average of the payoffs to the decision alternative in each state of the nature.
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20
In a decision analysis problem,variables (such as investing in common stocks or corporate bonds)which are under the decision maker's control are called decision alternatives.
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21
Dan Hein owns the mineral and drilling rights to a 1,000 hectare tract of land.If he drills a well and does not strike oil his net loss will be $50,000,but if he drills a well and strikes oil his net gain will be $100,000.If he does not drill,his loss is the cost of the mineral and drilling rights,which amount to $1000.For Dan's decision problem,the variable "net loss of $50,000" is one of the ___.
A)payoffs
B)decision alternatives
C)states of nature
D)revised probabilities
E)prior probabilities
A)payoffs
B)decision alternatives
C)states of nature
D)revised probabilities
E)prior probabilities
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22
In decision-making under uncertainty,the approach that considers only the best and the worst payoffs for each decision alternative is the ___.
A)maximin criterion
B)maximax criterion
C)Hurwicz criterion
D)minimax regret strategy
E)maximin regret strategy
A)maximin criterion
B)maximax criterion
C)Hurwicz criterion
D)minimax regret strategy
E)maximin regret strategy
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
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23
Dan Hein owns the mineral and drilling rights to a 1,000 hectare tract of land.If he drills a well and does not strike oil his net loss will be $50,000,but if he drills a well and strikes oil his net gain will be $100,000.If he does not drill,his loss is the cost of the mineral and drilling rights,which amount to $1000.For Dan's decision problem,the variable "oil in the tract" is one of the ___.
A)payoffs
B)decision alternatives
C)states of nature
D)revised probabilities
E)prior probabilities
A)payoffs
B)decision alternatives
C)states of nature
D)revised probabilities
E)prior probabilities
فتح الحزمة
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24
The concept of utility can be helpful to apply decision analysis techniques to situations which do not lend themselves to expected monetary value analysis.
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25
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. Using the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
Using the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
26
In decision-making under uncertainty,an optimistic approach is the ___.
A)maximin criterion
B)maximax criterion
C)Hurwicz criterion
D)minimax regret strategy
E)maximin regret strategy
A)maximin criterion
B)maximax criterion
C)Hurwicz criterion
D)minimax regret strategy
E)maximin regret strategy
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
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k this deck
27
Dan Hein owns the mineral and drilling rights to a 1,000 hectare tract of land.If he drills a well and does not strike oil his net loss will be $50,000,but if he drills a well and strikes oil his net gain will be $100,000.If he does not drill,his loss is the cost of the mineral and drilling rights,which amount to $1000.For Dan's decision problem,the variable "drill the well" is one of the ___.
A)payoffs
B)decision alternatives
C)states of nature
D)revised probabilities
E)prior probabilities
A)payoffs
B)decision alternatives
C)states of nature
D)revised probabilities
E)prior probabilities
فتح الحزمة
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28
Dianna Ivy is evaluating a plan to expand the production facilities of International Compressors Company which manufactures natural gas compressors.Dianna feels that the price of coal is a significant factor in her decision,but she cannot control it.For her decision,the different prices of coal represent the ___.
A)payoffs
B)decision alternatives
C)states of nature
D)revised probabilities
E)prior probabilities
A)payoffs
B)decision alternatives
C)states of nature
D)revised probabilities
E)prior probabilities
فتح الحزمة
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29
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. Using the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.2,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
Using the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.2,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
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30
Dan Hein owns the mineral and drilling rights to a 1,000 hectare tract of land.If he drills a well and does not strike oil his net loss will be $50,000,but if he drills a well and strikes oil his net gain will be $100,000.If he does not drill,his loss is the cost of the mineral and drilling rights,which amount to $1000.The probability of the state of nature "oil in the tract" is unknown.If Dan is an optimist,he would choose the ___.
A)maximin criterion
B)maximax criterion
C)Hurwicz criterion
D)minimax regret strategy
E)maximin regret strategy
A)maximin criterion
B)maximax criterion
C)Hurwicz criterion
D)minimax regret strategy
E)maximin regret strategy
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
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k this deck
31
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. The opportunity loss for the combination "S3" and "d1" is ___.
A)9
B)5
C)3
D)0
E)-1
The opportunity loss for the combination "S3" and "d1" is ___.A)9
B)5
C)3
D)0
E)-1
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
32
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. Using the maximin criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
Using the maximin criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
فتح الحزمة
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33
In a decision analysis problem,variables (such as investing in common stocks or corporate bonds)which are under the decision maker's control are called ___.
A)payoffs
B)decision alternatives
C)states of nature
D)revised probabilities
E)prior probabilities
A)payoffs
B)decision alternatives
C)states of nature
D)revised probabilities
E)prior probabilities
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
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34
Dan Hein owns the mineral and drilling rights to a 1,000 hectare tract of land.If he drills a well and does not strike oil his net loss will be $50,000,but if he drills a well and strikes oil his net gain will be $100,000.If he does not drill,his loss is the cost of the mineral and drilling rights,which amount to $1000.The probability of the state of nature "oil in the tract" is unknown.If Dan is a pessimist,he would choose the ___.
A)maximin criterion
B)maximax criterion
C)Hurwicz criterion
D)minimax regret strategy
E)maximin regret strategy
A)maximin criterion
B)maximax criterion
C)Hurwicz criterion
D)minimax regret strategy
E)maximin regret strategy
فتح الحزمة
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35
A risk-avoider decision maker will bail out of a risky scenario only if the compensation to bail out is more than the expected monetary payoff from the risky scenario.
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36
In decision-making under uncertainty,a pessimistic approach is the ___.
A)maximin criterion
B)maximax criterion
C)Hurwicz criterion
D)minimax regret strategy
E)maximin regret strategy
A)maximin criterion
B)maximax criterion
C)Hurwicz criterion
D)minimax regret strategy
E)maximin regret strategy
فتح الحزمة
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37
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. The opportunity loss for the combination "S2" and "d1" is ___.
A)9
B)5
C)3
D)0
E)-1
The opportunity loss for the combination "S2" and "d1" is ___.A)9
B)5
C)3
D)0
E)-1
فتح الحزمة
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38
Consider the following decision table with rewards in $ millions. Using the maximax criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
Using the maximax criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)d1
B)d2
C)d3
D)d4
E)d5
فتح الحزمة
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39
A risk-taker decision maker will bail out of a risky scenario only if the compensation to bail out is more than the expected monetary payoff from the risky scenario.
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40
The value of sample information is the ratio of the expected monetary value with information to the expected monetary value without information.
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41
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternative s to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions:
For the combination of 'Bear' and 'Mixture',the opportunity loss is ___.
A)0
B)5
C)13
D)33
E)-10
For the combination of 'Bear' and 'Mixture',the opportunity loss is ___.A)0
B)5
C)13
D)33
E)-10
فتح الحزمة
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42
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: For the 'Stocks' and 'Bonds' choices,the indifference value of Hurwicz's alpha is ___.
A)0.82
B)0.71
C)0.65
D)0.33
E)0.50
For the 'Stocks' and 'Bonds' choices,the indifference value of Hurwicz's alpha is ___.A)0.82
B)0.71
C)0.65
D)0.33
E)0.50
فتح الحزمة
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43
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: If Ray uses the maximin criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
If Ray uses the maximin criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
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k this deck
44
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: The EMV of investing in Stocks is ___.
A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
The EMV of investing in Stocks is ___.A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
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45
Melissa Rossi,Product Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for introducing a new package for toothpaste.She has identified four alternative markets,and has constructed the following table which shows NCI's rewards (in $1,000,000's)for various levels of acceptance by the markets and their probabilities: The EMV of introducing the new package in the "Northeast only" market is ___.
A)$50,000
B)$70,000
C)$90,000
D)$260,000
E)$300,000
The EMV of introducing the new package in the "Northeast only" market is ___.A)$50,000
B)$70,000
C)$90,000
D)$260,000
E)$300,000
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
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k this deck
46
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: The opportunity loss for the combination "Purchase New Equipment" and "Low" is ___.
A)0.5
B)1.5
C)2.5
D)3.0
E)3.5
The opportunity loss for the combination "Purchase New Equipment" and "Low" is ___.A)0.5
B)1.5
C)2.5
D)3.0
E)3.5
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
فتح الحزمة
k this deck
47
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: The opportunity loss for the combination "Purchase New Equipment" and "High" is ___.
A)0.0
B)0.5
C)2.5
D)3.0
E)3.5
The opportunity loss for the combination "Purchase New Equipment" and "High" is ___.A)0.0
B)0.5
C)2.5
D)3.0
E)3.5
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
فتح الحزمة
k this deck
48
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: For the combination of 'T-Bills' and 'Neutral',the opportunity loss is ___.
A)0
B)5
C)7
D)8
E)-10
For the combination of 'T-Bills' and 'Neutral',the opportunity loss is ___.A)0
B)5
C)7
D)8
E)-10
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
فتح الحزمة
k this deck
49
Melissa Rossi,Product Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for introducing a new package for toothpaste.She has identified four alternative markets,and has constructed the following table which shows NCI's rewards (in $1,000,000's)for various levels of acceptance by the markets and their probabilities: The EMV of introducing the new package in the "National" market is ___.
A)$50,000
B)$70,000
C)$90,000
D)$260,000
E)$300,000
The EMV of introducing the new package in the "National" market is ___.A)$50,000
B)$70,000
C)$90,000
D)$260,000
E)$300,000
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
فتح الحزمة
k this deck
50
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: If Trey uses the maximax criterion,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.
A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
If Trey uses the maximax criterion,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
فتح الحزمة
k this deck
51
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: If Ray uses the maximax criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
If Ray uses the maximax criterion,the appropriate choice would be ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
فتح الحزمة
k this deck
52
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate choice is ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate choice is ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
فتح الحزمة
k this deck
53
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.5,the appropriate choice is ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.5,the appropriate choice is ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
فتح الحزمة
k this deck
54
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: For the 'T-Bills' and 'Bonds' choices,the indifference value of Hurwicz's alpha is ___.
A)0.8267
B)0.7134
C)0.6555
D)0.3333
E)0.5000
For the 'T-Bills' and 'Bonds' choices,the indifference value of Hurwicz's alpha is ___.A)0.8267
B)0.7134
C)0.6555
D)0.3333
E)0.5000
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
فتح الحزمة
k this deck
55
Melissa Rossi,Product Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for introducing a new package for toothpaste.She has identified four alternative markets,and has constructed the following table which shows NCI's rewards (in $1,000,000's)for various levels of acceptance by the markets and their probabilities: If Melissa uses the EMV criterion,the appropriate choice would be: ___.
A)Northeast only
B)Southeast only
C)National
D)None (don't introduce the new package)
If Melissa uses the EMV criterion,the appropriate choice would be: ___.A)Northeast only
B)Southeast only
C)National
D)None (don't introduce the new package)
فتح الحزمة
افتح القفل للوصول البطاقات البالغ عددها 78 في هذه المجموعة.
فتح الحزمة
k this deck
56
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives to invest $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following payoff table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions: If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.9,the appropriate choice is ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
If Ray uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.9,the appropriate choice is ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)none
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k this deck
57
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: If Trey uses the maximin criterion,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.
A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
If Trey uses the maximin criterion,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
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k this deck
58
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: If Ray uses the EMV criterion,the appropriate choice is ___.
A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)Bank CD's
If Ray uses the EMV criterion,the appropriate choice is ___.A)T-Bills
B)Stocks
C)Bonds
D)Mixture
E)Bank CD's
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
59
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: If Trey uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.4,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.
A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
If Trey uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.4,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
60
Trey Leeman,Operations Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for increasing capacity at NCI's Fountain Hill plant.He has identified four alternatives,and has constructed the following payoff table which shows payoffs (in $1,000,000's)for the three possible levels of market demand: If Trey uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.
A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
If Trey uses the Hurwicz criterion with alpha = 0.1,the appropriate alternative would be: ___.A)lease new equipment
B)purchase new equipment
C)add third shift
D)do nothing
E)do everything
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
61
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: The expected monetary payoff with perfect information is ___.
A)$128,000
B)$137,000
C)$144,000
D)$151,000
E)$127,000
The expected monetary payoff with perfect information is ___.A)$128,000
B)$137,000
C)$144,000
D)$151,000
E)$127,000
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
62
Melissa Rossi,Product Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for introducing a new package for toothpaste.She has identified four alternative markets,and has constructed the following table which shows NCI's rewards (in $1,000,000's)for various levels of acceptance by the markets and their probabilities: The expected monetary payoff with perfect information is ___.
A)$570,000
B)$680,000
C)$760,000
D)$830,000
E)$980,000
The expected monetary payoff with perfect information is ___.A)$570,000
B)$680,000
C)$760,000
D)$830,000
E)$980,000
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
63
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: The expected value of perfect information is ___.
A)$57,000
B)$63,000
C)$79,000
D)$82,000
E)$87,000
The expected value of perfect information is ___.A)$57,000
B)$63,000
C)$79,000
D)$82,000
E)$87,000
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
64
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: If the advisor predicts a Bull market the EMV of the Stocks alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.
A)$168,900
B)$207,650
C)$157,300
D)$306,000
E)$134,650
If the advisor predicts a Bull market the EMV of the Stocks alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.A)$168,900
B)$207,650
C)$157,300
D)$306,000
E)$134,650
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
65
Frank Forgione has the right to enter a contest where he has a 50% chance of winning $50,000 and a 50% chance of losing $0.It costs Frank nothing to enter the contest.If he is willing to give up his right to enter the contest for a sure payment of $25,000,he is ___.
A)a risk avoider
B)an optimist
C)a risk taker
D)risk neutral (an EMV'er)
E)a gambler
A)a risk avoider
B)an optimist
C)a risk taker
D)risk neutral (an EMV'er)
E)a gambler
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
66
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: The EMV of investing in Bonds is ___.
A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
The EMV of investing in Bonds is ___.A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
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k this deck
67
In decision-making under risk,the expected monetary value without information is ___.
A)the weighted average of the best payoff for each state of nature
B)the largest of the EMVs for the different decision alternatives
C)never smaller than the expected monetary payoff with perfect information
D)the average of the EMVs
E)half the expected monetary value with information
A)the weighted average of the best payoff for each state of nature
B)the largest of the EMVs for the different decision alternatives
C)never smaller than the expected monetary payoff with perfect information
D)the average of the EMVs
E)half the expected monetary value with information
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68
The expected monetary value without information is $2,500,and the expected monetary payoff with perfect information is $5,000.The expected value of perfect information is ___.
A)$7,500
B)$2,500
C)$1,500
D)$2,000
E)$1,250
A)$7,500
B)$2,500
C)$1,500
D)$2,000
E)$1,250
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69
The expected monetary value without information is $60,and the expected monetary payoff with perfect information is $120.The expected value of perfect information is __.
A)$60
B)$2
C)$180
D)$0.50
E)$120
A)$60
B)$2
C)$180
D)$0.50
E)$120
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k this deck
70
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified four alternatives and constructed the following table which shows expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities: The EMV of investing in Mixture is ___.
A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
The EMV of investing in Mixture is ___.A)$30,000
B)$63,000
C)$78,000
D)$81,000
E)$100,000
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
71
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: If the advisor predicts a Bear market the EMV of the Bonds alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.
A)$36,600
B)$24,600
C)$56,800
D)$48,200
E)$45,800
If the advisor predicts a Bear market the EMV of the Bonds alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.A)$36,600
B)$24,600
C)$56,800
D)$48,200
E)$45,800
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
72
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: If the advisor predicts a Bear market the EMV of the Stocks alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.
A)$132,300
B)-$73,900
C)$127,600
D)-$99,800
E)$100,000
If the advisor predicts a Bear market the EMV of the Stocks alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.A)$132,300
B)-$73,900
C)$127,600
D)-$99,800
E)$100,000
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
73
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: The EMV of this investment opportunity with the advisor's prediction is ___.
A)$167,379
B)$174,200
C)$153,900
D)$136,700
E)$140,011
The EMV of this investment opportunity with the advisor's prediction is ___.A)$167,379
B)$174,200
C)$153,900
D)$136,700
E)$140,011
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
74
Frank Forgione has the right to enter a contest where he has a 50% chance of winning $50,000 and a 50% chance of losing $0.It costs Frank nothing to enter the contest.If he is willing to give up his right to enter the contest for a sure payment of $10,000,he is ___.
A)a risk avoider
B)an optimist
C)a risk taker
D)risk neutral (an EMV'er)
E)a gambler
A)a risk avoider
B)an optimist
C)a risk taker
D)risk neutral (an EMV'er)
E)a gambler
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
75
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives
And constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for
Various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on
Predicting Bull and Bear markets:
If the advisor predicts a Bull market the EMV of the Bonds alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.
A)$85,240
B)$25,710
C)$108,450
D)$75,480
And constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for
Various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on
Predicting Bull and Bear markets:
If the advisor predicts a Bull market the EMV of the Bonds alternative,using revised probabilities,is ___.A)$85,240
B)$25,710
C)$108,450
D)$75,480
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
76
Melissa Rossi,Product Manager at National Consumers,Inc.(NCI),is evaluating alternatives for introducing a new package for toothpaste.She has identified four alternative markets,and has constructed the following table which shows NCI's rewards (in $1,000,000's)for various levels of acceptance by the markets and their probabilities: The expected value of perfect information is ___.
A)$420,000
B)$570,000
C)$660,000
D)$720,000
E)$890,000
The expected value of perfect information is ___.A)$420,000
B)$570,000
C)$660,000
D)$720,000
E)$890,000
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
77
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: If the advisor predicts a Bull market,the revised probability of a Bull market,P (S1|F1),is ___.
A)0.877
B)0.894
C)0.953
D)0.923
E)1.000
If the advisor predicts a Bull market,the revised probability of a Bull market,P (S1|F1),is ___.A)0.877
B)0.894
C)0.953
D)0.923
E)1.000
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
78
Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1)expected profits (in $10,000's)for various market conditions and their probabilities,and (2)the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets: If the advisor predicts a Bear market the revised probability of a Bear market,P (S2|F2),is ___.
A)0.524
B)0.636
C)0.784
D)0.812
E)0.000
If the advisor predicts a Bear market the revised probability of a Bear market,P (S2|F2),is ___.A)0.524
B)0.636
C)0.784
D)0.812
E)0.000
فتح الحزمة
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k this deck
فتح الحزمة
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