Deck 11: Time Series Forecasting

Question 1

Exhibit 11.1
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages.
$$\begin{array} { | r | c | c | c | } \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 4-Month } \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Ave } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.00 \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 70.00 \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.50 \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 73.50 \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 7.00 \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 78.00 \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 81.00 \\\hline 15 & 13 & & \\\hline 16 & 14 & & \\\hline 17 & & & \\\hline 18 & & \text { MSE } & 40.59 \\\hline\end{array}$$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.1.What Excel function will compute the mean squared error in cell C18 of the spreadsheet?

A)=SUMXMY2B7:B14,C7:C14)
B)=SUMXMY2B3:B14,C3:C14)/COUNTC3:C14)
C)=SUMXMY2B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNTC7:C14)
D)=SUMPRODUCTB7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNTC7:C14)

Answer 1

=SUMXMY2B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNTC7:C14)

Question 2

Which of the following is the common approach to time-series analysis?

A)Try several techniques and use the best results.
B)Plot the data and count the peaks to determine a value for k .
C)Plot the data and use the TREND)function.
D)Use a stationary model since it is the most robust.

Answer 2

A

Question 3

Exhibit 11.2
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 2-Month Weighted } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Avg. } & & \text { Weights } & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & & & \text { w1 } & 0.244 \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & & & \text { w2 } & 0.756 \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & & & \text { sum } & 1.000 \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 76.59 & & & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 67.95 & & & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.56 & & & \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 66.93 & & & \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 75.02 & & & \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 74.44 & & & \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 82.00 & & & \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 80.54 & & & \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 77.95 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 26.72 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.2.What formula should be entered in cell C6 to compute the 2-month weighted moving average forecast for month 3?

A)=F3*B4+F4*B3
B)=$F$3*B4+$F$4*B3
C)=B3+B4)/2
D)=SUMPRODUCT$F$3:$F$4,B3:B4)

Answer 3

=$F$3*B4+$F$4*B3

Question 4

Exhibit 11.1
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages.
$$\begin{array} { | r | c | c | c | } \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 4-Month } \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Ave } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.00 \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 70.00 \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.50 \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 73.50 \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 7.00 \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 78.00 \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 81.00 \\\hline 15 & 13 & & \\\hline 16 & 14 & & \\\hline 17 & & & \\\hline 18 & & \text { MSE } & 40.59 \\\hline\end{array}$$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.1.What Excel function will compute the root mean squared error in cell C18 of the spreadsheet?

A)=SUMXMY2B7:B14,C7:C14)
B)=SQRTSUMXMY2B3:B14,C3:C14)/COUNTC3:C14))
C)=SUMXMY2B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNTC7:C14)
D)=SQRTSUMPRODUCTB7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNTC7:C14))

Question 5

Why might we not be able to build a regression model to predict a dependent variable?

A)We might not know the independent variables.
B)There might not be any data available for the independent variables.
C)The regression model might not fit the data well.
D)All of these are true.

Question 6

Which of the following is not a quantitative technique for evaluating the accuracy of a time-series modeling technique?

A)Constructing line graphs of the data.
B)The mean absolute deviation.
C)The mean absolute percent error.
D)The root mean square error.

Question 7

The determination of the MSE-minimizing value of the w_i is a non-linear optimization problem because

A)because absolute values are used.
B)the w_i are fractional.
C)the w_i sum to 1.
D)MSE is a non-linear objective function.

Question 8

A time series which has no significant upward or downward trend is referred to as

A)static.
B)non-moving.
C)stationary.
D)non-stationary.

Question 9

Exhibit 11.1
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages.
$$\begin{array} { | r | c | c | c | } \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 4-Month } \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Ave } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.00 \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 70.00 \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.50 \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 73.50 \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 7.00 \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 78.00 \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 81.00 \\\hline 15 & 13 & & \\\hline 16 & 14 & & \\\hline 17 & & & \\\hline 18 & & \text { MSE } & 40.59 \\\hline\end{array}$$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.1.If predicting the cars sold for time period 14,what formula must be placed in cell B16?

A)=AVERAGEB12:B15)
B)=AVERAGEB12:B15)/4
C)=TRENDB12:B15)
D)=B14

Question 10

A technique that analyzes past behavior of a time-series variable to predict the future is referred to as

A)a regression model.
B)a seasonal model.
C)a past performance model.
D)an extrapolation model.

Question 11

A time series which has a significant upward or downward trend is referred to as

A)static.
B)non-moving.
C)stationary.
D)non-stationary.

Question 12

Exhibit 11.1
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages.
$$\begin{array} { | r | c | c | c | } \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 4-Month } \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Ave } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.00 \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 70.00 \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.50 \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 73.50 \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 7.00 \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 78.00 \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 81.00 \\\hline 15 & 13 & & \\\hline 16 & 14 & & \\\hline 17 & & & \\\hline 18 & & \text { MSE } & 40.59 \\\hline\end{array}$$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.1.What would be the forecasted values for time periods 13 and 14?

A)81.00 and 79.50.
B)78.00 and 78.00.
C)80.50 and 80.13.
D)80.50 and 80.00.

Question 13

Exhibit 11.2
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 2-Month Weighted } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Avg. } & & \text { Weights } & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & & & \text { w1 } & 0.244 \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & & & \text { w2 } & 0.756 \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & & & \text { sum } & 1.000 \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 76.59 & & & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 67.95 & & & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.56 & & & \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 66.93 & & & \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 75.02 & & & \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 74.44 & & & \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 82.00 & & & \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 80.54 & & & \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 77.95 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 26.72 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.2.Which cell in the spreadsheet is the objective cell in the Risk Solver Platform RSP)task pane area?

A)F3
B)F4
C)F5
D)C16

Question 14

As the number of periods in the forecast,k,increases

A)the moving average prediction will be smoother.
B)it is harder to get a good forecast.
C)the forecast will respond more quickly to changes in the data.
D)the moving average will increase in value.

Question 15

Exhibit 11.2
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 2-Month Weighted } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Avg. } & & \text { Weights } & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & & & \text { w1 } & 0.244 \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & & & \text { w2 } & 0.756 \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & & & \text { sum } & 1.000 \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 76.59 & & & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 67.95 & & & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.56 & & & \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 66.93 & & & \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 75.02 & & & \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 74.44 & & & \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 82.00 & & & \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 80.54 & & & \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 77.95 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 26.72 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.2.What would be the forecasted value for time period 13?

A)83.024.
B)80.796.
C)79.245.
D)79.908.

Question 16

A model or technique that uses past behavior of a time-series variable to predict the future is referred to as

A)a forecasting model.
B)an extrapolation model.
C)a trend model.
D)all of these.

Question 17

Exhibit 11.1
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages.
$$\begin{array} { | r | c | c | c | } \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 4-Month } \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Ave } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.00 \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 70.00 \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.50 \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 73.50 \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 7.00 \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 78.00 \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 81.00 \\\hline 15 & 13 & & \\\hline 16 & 14 & & \\\hline 17 & & & \\\hline 18 & & \text { MSE } & 40.59 \\\hline\end{array}$$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.1.What formula should be entered in cell C13 to compute the 4-month moving average forecast for month 11?

A)=AVERAGEB9:B12)/4
B)=AVERAGEB7+B10)
C)=AVERAGEA9:A12)
D)=AVERAGEB9:B12)

Question 18

Exhibit 11.1
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages.
$$\begin{array} { | r | c | c | c | } \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 4-Month } \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Ave } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.00 \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 70.00 \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.50 \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 73.50 \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 7.00 \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 78.00 \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 81.00 \\\hline 15 & 13 & & \\\hline 16 & 14 & & \\\hline 17 & & & \\\hline 18 & & \text { MSE } & 40.59 \\\hline\end{array}$$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.1.What is the 4-month moving average forecast for month 5?

A)71
B)72.5
C)74
D)75

Question 19

In an exponential smoothing method,weights are assigned

A)just to the current actual and predicted values.
B)just to the previous data point and its predicted value.
C)to all past data points with weight α.
D)to all past data points with more recent data points receiving more weight.

Question 20

Exhibit 11.2
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 2-Month Weighted } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Avg. } & & \text { Weights } & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & & & \text { w1 } & 0.244 \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & & & \text { w2 } & 0.756 \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & & & \text { sum } & 1.000 \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 76.59 & & & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 67.95 & & & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.56 & & & \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 66.93 & & & \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 75.02 & & & \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 74.44 & & & \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 82.00 & & & \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 80.54 & & & \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 77.95 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 26.72 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.2.What is the 2-month weighted moving average forecast for month 3 using the weight in the spreadsheet? Associate weight w₁ with sales in time period 2 and w₂ with sales in time period 1.

A)72.44
B)75.00
C)76.59
D)77.56

Question 21

Exhibit 11.5
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.

Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A)1259 ≤ predicted sales < 1260
B)1938 ≤ predicted sales < 1939
C)2090 ≤ predicted sales < 2091
D)2187 ≤ predicted sales < 2188

Question 22

Exhibit 11.6
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.

Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What formula should be entered in cell E6 and copied to E7:E14)to compute the first average when using the double moving average method with k = 4?

A)=Average$E$3:$E$6)
B)=Average$D$3:$D$6)
C)=AverageD3:D6)
D)=AverageD5:D6)

Question 23

Exhibit 11.3
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \mathrm{B} & \text { C } & \text { D } & E & \mathrm{~F} \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { Exp Smoothing } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Prediction } & & & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & 70.00 & & \text { alpha } & 0.346 \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & 70.00 & & & \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & 73.46 & & & \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 70.88 & & & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 71.96 & & & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 69.20 & & & \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 71.56 & & & \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.71 & & & \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 75.27 & & & \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 77.60 & & & \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 77.05 & & & \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 79.45 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 39.79 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.3.Assume the forecasted value for month 13 is 79.64.What is the forecasted value for month 16?

A)85.54.
B)83.64.
C)79.64.
D)82.00.

Question 24

Exhibit 11.5
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.

Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the seasonal factor using the multiplicative seasonal effects model?

A)=$J$3*D4+1-$J$3)*E3+F3)
B)=$J$4*D7/E7)+1-$J$4)*F3
C)=$J$4*E7/E6)+1-$J$4)*E6
D)=$J$3*G3+1-$J$3)*D3+G3)

Question 25

Exhibit 11.4
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|r|r|r|l|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } & \text { G } & \text { H } & \text { I } & \text { J } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Sale } \\\text { s }\end{array} & \text { Level } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } & & & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & 331.25 & -47.250 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.764 \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 331.25 & -147.250 & & & \text { beta } & 1.0 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 331.25 & 33.750 & & & & \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 331.25 & 160.750 & & & & \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 484.85 & 0.146 & 284.00 & & & \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 438.54 & -161.541 & 337.60 & & & \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 556.41 & 165.591 & 701.47 & & & \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 714.17 & 48.827 & 556.56 & & & \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 745.02 & -152.022 & 552.63 & & & \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 822.74 & 89.260 & 810.30 & & & \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 942.47 & 202.534 & 988.33 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & &17688.77 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.4.What formula should be entered in cell G12 to compute the forecast for time period 10?

A)=E10+F7
B)=E12+F12
C)=E12+F8
D)=E11+F8

Question 26

Exhibit 11.4
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|r|r|r|l|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } & \text { G } & \text { H } & \text { I } & \text { J } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Sale } \\\text { s }\end{array} & \text { Level } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } & & & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & 331.25 & -47.250 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.764 \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 331.25 & -147.250 & & & \text { beta } & 1.0 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 331.25 & 33.750 & & & & \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 331.25 & 160.750 & & & & \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 484.85 & 0.146 & 284.00 & & & \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 438.54 & -161.541 & 337.60 & & & \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 556.41 & 165.591 & 701.47 & & & \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 714.17 & 48.827 & 556.56 & & & \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 745.02 & -152.022 & 552.63 & & & \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 822.74 & 89.260 & 810.30 & & & \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 942.47 & 202.534 & 988.33 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & &17688.77 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.4.What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the remaining expected levels?

A)=$J$3*D7-D3)+ 1-$J$3)*E6
B)=$J$3*D7-D6)+ 1-$J$3)*E6
C)=$J$4*D7-D3)+ 1-$J$4)*E6
D)=$J$4*D7-D6)+ 1-$J$4)*E6

Question 27

Which of the following describes an additive seasonal effect in times series data?

A)An occasional pattern of equal magnitude.
B)An occasional pattern of unequal magnitude.
C)A regular,repeating pattern of equal magnitude.
D)A regular,repeating pattern of increasing magnitude.

Question 28

Exhibit 11.3
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \mathrm{B} & \text { C } & \text { D } & E & \mathrm{~F} \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { Exp Smoothing } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Prediction } & & & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & 70.00 & & \text { alpha } & 0.346 \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & 70.00 & & & \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & 73.46 & & & \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 70.88 & & & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 71.96 & & & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 69.20 & & & \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 71.56 & & & \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.71 & & & \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 75.27 & & & \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 77.60 & & & \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 77.05 & & & \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 79.45 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 39.79 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.3.What is the exponential smoothing forecast for month 13?

A)79.20 ? forecast < 79.30
B)79.60 ? forecast < 79.70
C)80.10 ? forecast < 80.20
D)81.95 ? forecast < 82.05

Question 29

Exhibit 11.5
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.

Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the remaining expected levels?

A)=$J$3*D7/F3)+ 1-$J$3)*E6
B)=$J$3*D7/D6)+ 1-$J$3)*E6
C)=$J$4*D7/D3)+ 1-$J$4)*E6
D)=$J$4*D7/D6)+ 1-$J$4)*E6

Question 30

Exhibit 11.5
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.

Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the base level when using the multiplicative seasonal effects method?

A)=AVERAGE$E$3:$E$6)
B)=AVERAGEE3,E7,E11)
C)=AVERAGE$D$3:$D$6)
D)=AVERAGED3,D7,D11)

Question 31

Exhibit 11.6
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.

Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What formula should be entered in cell F9 to compute the second average when using the double moving average method with k = 4?

A)=Average$E$3:$E$9)
B)=Average$D$3:$D$9)
C)=AverageD3:D9)
D)=AverageD6:D9)

Question 32

Exhibit 11.4
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|r|r|r|l|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } & \text { G } & \text { H } & \text { I } & \text { J } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Sale } \\\text { s }\end{array} & \text { Level } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } & & & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & 331.25 & -47.250 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.764 \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 331.25 & -147.250 & & & \text { beta } & 1.0 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 331.25 & 33.750 & & & & \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 331.25 & 160.750 & & & & \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 484.85 & 0.146 & 284.00 & & & \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 438.54 & -161.541 & 337.60 & & & \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 556.41 & 165.591 & 701.47 & & & \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 714.17 & 48.827 & 556.56 & & & \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 745.02 & -152.022 & 552.63 & & & \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 822.74 & 89.260 & 810.30 & & & \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 942.47 & 202.534 & 988.33 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & &17688.77 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.4.What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the seasonal factor using the additive seasonal effects model?

A)=$J$3*D4+1-$J$3)*E3+F3)
B)=$J$4*D7-E7)+1-$J$4)*F3
C)=$J$4*E7-E6)+1-$J$4)*E6
D)=$J$3*G3+1-$J$3)*D3+G3)

Question 33

Exhibit 11.4
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|r|r|r|l|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } & \text { G } & \text { H } & \text { I } & \text { J } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Sale } \\\text { s }\end{array} & \text { Level } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } & & & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & 331.25 & -47.250 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.764 \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 331.25 & -147.250 & & & \text { beta } & 1.0 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 331.25 & 33.750 & & & & \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 331.25 & 160.750 & & & & \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 484.85 & 0.146 & 284.00 & & & \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 438.54 & -161.541 & 337.60 & & & \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 556.41 & 165.591 & 701.47 & & & \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 714.17 & 48.827 & 556.56 & & & \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 745.02 & -152.022 & 552.63 & & & \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 822.74 & 89.260 & 810.30 & & & \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 942.47 & 202.534 & 988.33 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & &17688.77 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.4.What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A)915 ? predicted sales < 916
B)916 ? predicted sales < 917
C)991 ? predicted sales < 992
D)1045 ? predicted sales < 1046

Question 34

Exhibit 11.4
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|r|r|r|l|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } & \text { G } & \text { H } & \text { I } & \text { J } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Sale } \\\text { s }\end{array} & \text { Level } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } & & & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & 331.25 & -47.250 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.764 \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 331.25 & -147.250 & & & \text { beta } & 1.0 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 331.25 & 33.750 & & & & \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 331.25 & 160.750 & & & & \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 484.85 & 0.146 & 284.00 & & & \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 438.54 & -161.541 & 337.60 & & & \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 556.41 & 165.591 & 701.47 & & & \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 714.17 & 48.827 & 556.56 & & & \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 745.02 & -152.022 & 552.63 & & & \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 822.74 & 89.260 & 810.30 & & & \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 942.47 & 202.534 & 988.33 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & &17688.77 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.4.What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the base level when using the additive seasonal effects method?

A)=AVERAGE$E$3:$E$6)
B)=AVERAGEE3,E7,E11)
C)=AVERAGE$D$3:$D$6)
D)=AVERAGED3,D7,D11)

Question 35

Which of the following statements are true regarding the difference between forecasts using exponential smoothing and forecasts using a weighted moving average method?

A)The exponential smoothing forecasts will have a steeper trend line.
B)The weighted moving average forecasts will form a level line of constant value.
C)The exponential smoothing forecasts will form a level line of constant value.
D)The exponential smoothing forecasts will do a better job of capturing the underlying trend in the data.

Question 36

As alpha increases the exponential smoothing model

A)produces sluggish forecasts.
B)reacts quickly to changes in the data.
C)reacts slowly to changes in the data.
D)does not change.

Question 37

Exhibit 11.5
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.

Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What formula should be entered in cell G13 to compute the forecast for time period 11?

A)=E13+F13
B)=E12+F13
C)=E12+F8
D)=E12+F9

Question 38

Which of the following describes a multiplicative seasonal effect in times series data?

A)An occasional pattern of equal magnitude.
B)An occasional pattern of unequal magnitude.
C)A regular,repeating pattern of equal magnitude.
D)A regular,repeating pattern of increasing magnitude.

Question 39

Exhibit 11.3
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \mathrm{B} & \text { C } & \text { D } & E & \mathrm{~F} \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { Exp Smoothing } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Prediction } & & & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & 70.00 & & \text { alpha } & 0.346 \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & 70.00 & & & \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & 73.46 & & & \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 70.88 & & & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 71.96 & & & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 69.20 & & & \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 71.56 & & & \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.71 & & & \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 75.27 & & & \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 77.60 & & & \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 77.05 & & & \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 79.45 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 39.79 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.3.What is the exponential smoothing forecast for month 2?

A)69.75 ? forecast < 70.25
B)73.00 ? forecast < 73.50
C)74.75 ? forecast < 75.25
D)79.75 ? forecast < 81.25

Question 40

Exhibit 11.3
The following questions use the data below.
Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \mathrm{B} & \text { C } & \text { D } & E & \mathrm{~F} \\\hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { Exp Smoothing } & & & \\\hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Prediction } & & & \\\hline 3 & 1 & 70 & 70.00 & & \text { alpha } & 0.346 \\\hline 4 & 2 & 80 & 70.00 & & & \\\hline 5 & 3 & 66 & 73.46 & & & \\\hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 70.88 & & & \\\hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 71.96 & & & \\\hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 69.20 & & & \\\hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 71.56 & & & \\\hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.71 & & & \\\hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 75.27 & & & \\\hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 77.60 & & & \\\hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 77.05 & & & \\\hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 79.45 & & & \\\hline 15 & & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 39.79 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.3.What formula should be entered in cell C4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecast for month 2?

A)=C3-$F$3*B3-C3)
B)=C3+$F$3*C3-B3)
C)=B3+$F$3*B3-C3)
D)=C3+$F$3*B3-C3)

Question 41

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & & \text { Actual } & \text { Quadratic } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Time }^{\wedge} 2& \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 4 & 184 & 295.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 9 & 365 & 325.7 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 16 & 492 & 366.2 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 25 & 485 & 416.4 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 36 & 277 & 476.6 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 49 & 606 & 546.6 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 64 & 722 & 626.4 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 81 & 763 & 716.1 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100 & 593 & 815.6 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 121 & 912 & 924.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 144 & 1145 & 1044.1 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.10.What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A)B3:B14
B)C3:C14
C)D3:D14
D)E3:E14

Question 42

Exhibit 11.9
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Regrassion } & \\\text { Satisties } & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 114.136 \\\hline X \text { Variable } & 69.979 \\\hline\end{array}$$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Linear } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 254.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 324.1 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 394.1 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 464.0 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 534.0 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 604.0 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 674.0 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 743.9 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 813.9 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 883.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 953.9 \\\hline\end{array}$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.9.What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A)B3:B14
B)C3:C14
C)D3:D14
D)B3:D14

Question 43

Exhibit 11.8
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.

Refer to Exhibit 11.8.What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the base level value for year 2 Quarter 1?

A)=$D$17+1-$D$17)*E6+F6)
B)=$D$17*D7/G3+1-$D$17)*E6+F6)
C)=$D$17*D7/G3+1-$D$17)
D)=$D$17*D7/G3+$D$17)*E6+F6)

Question 44

Exhibit 11.7
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.

Refer to Exhibit 11.7.What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A)908 ≤ predicted sales < 909
B)1026 ≤ predicted sales < 1027
C)1144 ≤ predicted sales < 1146
D)1160 ≤ predicted sales < 1161

Question 45

Exhibit 11.7
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.

Refer to Exhibit 11.7.What formula should be entered in cell F4 to compute the trend when using Holt's method?

A)=$J$3*D4+1-$J$3)*E3+F3)
B)=$J$4*E4-E3)+1-$J$4)*F3
C)=$J$4*E4-E3)+1-$J$4)*G3
D)=$J$4*G3+1-$J$4)*D3+G3)

Question 46

How many indicator variables are required if there are p seasons in a time series and you are forecasting with a seasonal regression model?

A)p − 1
B)p
C)p + 1
D)p + 2

Question 47

Exhibit 11.8
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.

Refer to Exhibit 11.8.What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

A)795 ≤ predicted sales < 800
B)860 ≤ predicted sales < 865
C)910 ≤ predicted sales < 915
D)1280 ≤ predicted sales < 1285

Question 48

Exhibit 11.7
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.

Refer to Exhibit 11.7.What are predicted sales for time period 2 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A)208.5 ≤ predicted sales < 209.5
B)233.5 ≤ predicted sales < 234.5
C)283.5 ≤ predicted sales < 284.5
D)300.5 ≤ predicted sales < 301.5

Question 49

Exhibit 11.6
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.

Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What formula should be entered in cell I16 to compute the forecast for time period 14?

A)=I15+2*$H$14
B)=G14+B16*H14
C)=G14+3*H14
D)=G12+H12

Question 50

Exhibit 11.6
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.

Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What formula should be entered in cell H9 to compute the trend using the double moving average model with k = 4?

A)=2*AVERAGEE9,F9))/4
B)=2*E9-F9)/4-1)
C)=2*E9-F9)/4*2)
D)=2*D9-F9)/4-1)

Question 51

Exhibit 11.8
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.

Refer to Exhibit 11.8.What formula should be entered in cell G3 to compute the seasonal factor for year 1 Quarter 1?

A)=D3/AVERAGE$D$3:$D$6)
B)=D3/AVERAGE$D$3:$D$14)
C)=D3/SUM$D$3:$D$6)
D)=D3/COUNTIF$D$3:$D$6)

Question 52

Exhibit 11.9
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Regrassion } & \\\text { Satisties } & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 114.136 \\\hline X \text { Variable } & 69.979 \\\hline\end{array}$$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Linear } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 254.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 324.1 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 394.1 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 464.0 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 534.0 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 604.0 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 674.0 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 743.9 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 813.9 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 883.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 953.9 \\\hline\end{array}$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.9.What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the linear trend for year 1 Quarter 1?

A)= 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 3
B)= 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 1
C)= 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 1991
D)= 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 284

Question 53

Exhibit 11.8
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.

Refer to Exhibit 11.8.What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the Trend value for year 2 Quarter 1?

A)=$D$18*E6-E7)+1-$D$18)*F6
B)=$D$18*E7-E6)+$D$18*F6
C)=$D$18*E7-E6)+1-$D$18)*F6
D)=$D$18*E7-E6)*1-$D$18)

Question 54

Exhibit 11.9
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Regrassion } & \\\text { Satisties } & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 114.136 \\\hline X \text { Variable } & 69.979 \\\hline\end{array}$$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Linear } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 254.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 324.1 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 394.1 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 464.0 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 534.0 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 604.0 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 674.0 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 743.9 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 813.9 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 883.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 953.9 \\\hline\end{array}$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.9.What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A)B3:B14
B)C3:C14
C)D3:D14
D)B3:D14

Question 55

Exhibit 11.6
The following questions use the data below.
A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.

Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What are predicted sales for time period 16 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A)1964 ≤ predicted sales < 1965
B)2147 ≤ predicted sales < 2148
C)2330 ≤ predicted sales < 2331
D)2513 ≤ predicted sales < 2513

Question 56

Exhibit 11.9
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Regrassion } & \\\text { Satisties } & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 114.136 \\\hline X \text { Variable } & 69.979 \\\hline\end{array}$$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Linear } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 254.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 324.1 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 394.1 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 464.0 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 534.0 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 604.0 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 674.0 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 743.9 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 813.9 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 883.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 953.9 \\\hline\end{array}$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.9.What are predicted sales for the fourth quarter of year 4?

A)1020 ? predicted sales < 1025
B)1090 ? predicted sales < 1095
C)1160 ? predicted sales < 1165
D)1230 ? predicted sales < 1235

Question 57

Exhibit 11.9
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Regrassion } & \\\text { Satisties } & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 114.136 \\\hline X \text { Variable } & 69.979 \\\hline\end{array}$$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Linear } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 254.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 324.1 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 394.1 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 464.0 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 534.0 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 604.0 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 674.0 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 743.9 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 813.9 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 883.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 953.9 \\\hline\end{array}$

-Refer to Exhibit 11.9.Which column in the spreadsheet represents the independent variable for a regression model?

A)A
B)B
C)C
D)D

Question 58

Exhibit 11.7
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.

Refer to Exhibit 11.7.What formula should be entered in cell E4 to compute the base level when using Holt's method?

A)=$J$3*D4+1-$J$3)*E3+F3)
B)=$J$4*D4+1-$J$4)*E3+F3)
C)=$J$3*G4+1-$J$3)*E3+F3)
D)=$J$4*E4-E3)+1-$J$4)*F3

Question 59

Exhibit 11.8
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.

Refer to Exhibit 11.8.What formula should be entered in cell H7 to compute the Predicted Sales value for year 2 Quarter 1?

A)=SUME6:F6)*G3
B)=SUME6:F6)+G3
C)=SUME6:F6)
D)=SUME6:G3)

Question 60

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & & \text { Actual } & \text { Quadratic } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Time }^{\wedge} 2& \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 4 & 184 & 295.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 9 & 365 & 325.7 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 16 & 492 & 366.2 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 25 & 485 & 416.4 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 36 & 277 & 476.6 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 49 & 606 & 546.6 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 64 & 722 & 626.4 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 81 & 763 & 716.1 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100 & 593 & 815.6 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 121 & 912 & 924.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 144 & 1145 & 1044.1 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.10.How is a quadratic term added to the problem if we want to develop a quadratic trend model?

A)Add a column containing Time².
B)Add a column containing Actual Sales².
C)Increase the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box.
D)Square the coefficient for Time in the regression model.

Question 61

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\1\end{array} & 10.052 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\2\end{array} & 4.248 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\3\end{array} & -79.917 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\4\end{array} & -296.008 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\5\end{array} & -84.924 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What formula should be entered in cell I3 to compute the Seasonal Value for year 1 Quarter 1?

A)=388.88+10.052*C3+4.248*D3+79.917*E3+296.008*F3+84.924*G3
B)=10.052*C3+4.248*D3-79.917*E3-296.008*F3-84.924*G3
C)=388.88+10.052*C3+4.248*D3-79.917*E3-296.008*F3-84.924*G3
D)=I3+10.052*C3+4.248*D3-79.917*E3-296.008*F3-84.924*G3

Question 62

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & & \text { Actual } & \text { Quadratic } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Time }^{\wedge} 2& \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 4 & 184 & 295.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 9 & 365 & 325.7 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 16 & 492 & 366.2 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 25 & 485 & 416.4 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 36 & 277 & 476.6 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 49 & 606 & 546.6 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 64 & 722 & 626.4 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 81 & 763 & 716.1 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100 & 593 & 815.6 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 121 & 912 & 924.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 144 & 1145 & 1044.1 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.10.What Excel command can be used in cells F4:F14 in lieu of a formula based on the regression statistics?

A)=TREND$E$3:$E$14,$C$3:$C$14,C4)
B)=TREND$E$3:$E$14,$C$3:$D$14,C4:D4)
C)=TREND$E$3:$E$14,$C$3:$D$14,D4)
D)=TREND$E$3:$E$14,$B$3:$D$14,B4:D4)

Question 63

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\1\end{array} & 10.052 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\2\end{array} & 4.248 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\3\end{array} & -79.917 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\4\end{array} & -296.008 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\5\end{array} & -84.924 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A)$C$3:$C$14
B)$H$3:$H$14
C)$C$3:$G$14
D)$H$3:$I$14

Question 64

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\1\end{array} & 10.052 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\2\end{array} & 4.248 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\3\end{array} & -79.917 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\4\end{array} & -296.008 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\5\end{array} & -84.924 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

A)1155 ? predicted sales < 1160
B)1065 ? predicted sales < 1070
C)1410 ? predicted sales < 1415
D)1635 ? predicted sales < 1640

Question 65

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & & \text { Actual } & \text { Quadratic } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Time }^{\wedge} 2& \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 4 & 184 & 295.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 9 & 365 & 325.7 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 16 & 492 & 366.2 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 25 & 485 & 416.4 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 36 & 277 & 476.6 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 49 & 606 & 546.6 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 64 & 722 & 626.4 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 81 & 763 & 716.1 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100 & 593 & 815.6 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 121 & 912 & 924.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 144 & 1145 & 1044.1 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.10.What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A)B3:B14
B)C3:C14
C)C3:D14
D)C3:E14

Question 66

Seasonality is defined as

A)regular variation above and below the trend line with a cycle completing itself within a year
B)regular variation above and below the trend line with a cycle completing itself within a period longer than one year
C)a sudden change in process level due to a known cause
D)part of the error term

Question 67

Exhibit 11.11
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What formula should be entered in cell C18 to compute the Seasonal Index value for quarter 1?

A)=SUM$B$3:$B$14)/COUNTIF$B$3:$B$14,B18)
B)=SUMIF$B$3:$B$14,B18,$G$3:$G$14)/COUNTIF$B$3:$B$14,B18)
C)=SUMIF$B$3:$B$14,$G$3:$G$14)/COUNT$B$3:$B$14,B18)
D)=SUMIF$B$3:$B$14,B18)/COUNTIF$B$3:$B$14,B18)

Question 68

Exhibit 11.11
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What formula should be entered in cell H3 to compute the Seasonal Forecast value for year 1 Quarter 1?

A)=F3*VLOOKUPB3,$B$18:$C$21,2)
B)=F3*HLOOKUPB3,$B$18:$B$21,2)
C)=F3*VLOOKUPB3,$B$18:$B$21,2)
D)=F3*VLOOKUPB3,$C$18:$C$21,2)

Question 69

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\1\end{array} & 10.052 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\2\end{array} & 4.248 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\3\end{array} & -79.917 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\4\end{array} & -296.008 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\5\end{array} & -84.924 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What Excel command can be used in cells F4:F14 in lieu of a formula based on the regression statistics?

A)=TREND$H$3:$H$14,$C$3:$G$14,C3:G3)
B)=TREND$H$3:$H$14,$B$3:$G$14,B3:G3)
C)=TREND$H$3:$H$14,$A$3:$G$14,A3:G3)
D)=TREND$H$3:$H$14,$C$3:$D$14,C3:D3)

Question 70

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & & \text { Actual } & \text { Quadratic } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Time }^{\wedge} 2& \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 4 & 184 & 295.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 9 & 365 & 325.7 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 16 & 492 & 366.2 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 25 & 485 & 416.4 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 36 & 277 & 476.6 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 49 & 606 & 546.6 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 64 & 722 & 626.4 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 81 & 763 & 716.1 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100 & 593 & 815.6 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 121 & 912 & 924.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 144 & 1145 & 1044.1 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.10.What formula should be entered in cell F3 to compute the quadratic trend for year 1 Quarter 1?

A)= 263.4545 * C3 + 5.985514 * D3 + 4.922577
B)= 263.4545 + 5.985514 * D3 + 4.922577 * C3
C)= 263.4545 + 5.985514 * C2 + 4.922577 * D2
D)= 263.4545 + 5.985514 * C3 + 4.922577 * D3

Question 71

Seasonality in a time series is indicated by

A)regular,repeating patterns in the data around a trend line.
B)regular patterns in the data around a trend line.
C)irregular patterns in the data around a trend line.
D)random patterns in the data around a trend line.

Question 72

Exhibit 11.11
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What formula should be entered in cell F3 to compute the quadratic trend for year 1 Quarter 1?

A)= 263.4545 * C3 + 5.985514 * D3 + 4.922577
B)= 263.4545 + 5.985514 * D3 + 4.922577 * C3
C)= 263.4545 + 5.985514 * C2 + 4.922577 * D2
D)= 263.4545 + 5.985514 * C3 + 4.922577 * D3

Question 73

Seasonal effects are typically modeled using

A)the additive model
B)the multiplicative model
C)a)and b)
D)neither a)nor b)

Question 74

Exhibit 11.11
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

A)755 ? predicted sales < 780
B)1255 ? predicted sales < 1260
C)1275 ? predicted sales < 1280
D)1405 ? predicted sales < 1410

Question 75

Exhibit 11.10
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\\hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & & \text { Actual } & \text { Quadratic } \\\hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Time }^{\wedge} 2& \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\\hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\\hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 4 & 184 & 295.1 \\\hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 9 & 365 & 325.7 \\\hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 16 & 492 & 366.2 \\\hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 25 & 485 & 416.4 \\\hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 36 & 277 & 476.6 \\\hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 49 & 606 & 546.6 \\\hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 64 & 722 & 626.4 \\\hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 81 & 763 & 716.1 \\\hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100 & 593 & 815.6 \\\hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 121 & 912 & 924.9 \\\hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 144 & 1145 & 1044.1 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.10.What are predicted sales for the fourth quarter of year 4?

A)1170 ? predicted sales < 1175
B)1310 ? predicted sales < 1315
C)1460 ? predicted sales < 1465
D)1615 ? predicted sales < 1620

Question 76

The term "stationary data" means that

A)the mean is constant
B)there is an increasing linear trend over time
C)the fitted line goes through the origin
D)there is no change in the data

Question 77

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\1\end{array} & 10.052 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\2\end{array} & 4.248 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\3\end{array} & -79.917 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\4\end{array} & -296.008 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\5\end{array} & -84.924 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A)$C$3:$C$14
B)$H$3:$H$14
C)$C$3:$G$14
D)$H$3:$I$14

Question 78

Exhibit 11.12
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\1\end{array} & 10.052 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\2\end{array} & 4.248 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\3\end{array} & -79.917 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\4\end{array} & -296.008 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { X Variable } \\5\end{array} & -84.924 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the value for the indicator variable for year 1 Quarter 1?

A)=IF$B$3<>$E$2,1,0)
B)=IF$B3=E$2,1)
C)=IF$B$3=$E$2,0,1)
D)=IF$B3=E$2,1,0)

Question 79

Forecasting into distant future periods

A)is unreliable
B)is expensive
C)is easy
D)assumes changing data patterns

Question 80

Exhibit 11.11
The following questions use the data below.
Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.
$\begin{array}{|c|r|}\hline \begin{array}{l}\text { Regression } \\\text { Statistics }\end{array} & \\\hline & \text { Coefficients } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\\hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\\hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What formula should be entered in cell G3 to compute the "Actual as a % of Trend" value for year 1 Quarter 1?

A)=E3/H3
B)=F3/H3
C)=F3/E3
D)=E3/F3