Deck 12: Judgment: Drawing Conclusions From Evidence

Question 1

Before reading about a depressed individual, participants are told that the case is not at all typical. This instruction will:

A) prevent participants from using the representativeness heuristic
B) encourage participants to use the representativeness heuristic
C) not affect participants' spontaneous use of the representativeness heuristic
D) influence participants' willingness to draw conclusions from a single case

Answer 1

C

Question 2

Although people may not know an exact answer to a question, they will often have a rough idea of what the answer is, and they can make adjustments to this rough idea when they offer an answer. This use of the initial rough answer is referred to as:

A) an availability error
B) anchoring
C) confirmation bias
D) perseveration

Answer 2

B

Question 3

Which of the following is an example of the gambler's fallacy?

A) "I know the chances of winning the lottery are small, but someone has to win it, and I could be the one!"
B) "I've gotten a low number the last eight times I've rolled the dice, so a high number is coming up soon!"
C) "There's an equal chance for any team to win the league's championship."
D) "The best strategy at the horse races is to bet in the same way as the crowd is betting."

Answer 3

B

Question 4

Many of us overestimate our own popularity. This could be because we surround ourselves with people who like us, rather than with people who do not. Therefore, it is easier for us to think of the names of people who like us than it is to think of the names of our enemies. This overestimation of popularity seems to derive from using:

A) anchoring
B) base rates
C) the atmosphere pattern
D) the availability heuristic

Question 5

The availability heuristic is a strategy in which:

A) category frequencies tend to be overestimated
B) people base their estimates of frequency on how easily they can think of examples of the relevant category
C) people judge frequency by referring to their sense of familiarity with the category
D) category frequencies are estimated on the basis of schematic knowledge

Question 6

Heuristics are strategies that:

A) sometimes risk error in order to gain efficiency
B) are underused, despite their advantages
C) protect us from overestimating the frequency of real-life events
D) ensure step-by-step procedures for finding correct conclusions

Question 7

Which of the following is NOT an example of a frequency judgment?

A) "You've only worn that shirt once since I gave it to you!"
B) "I am certain that he is bluffing."
C) "There certainly are a lot of pizzerias in this neighborhood."
D) "The number of truly caring physicians is getting smaller and smaller."

Question 8

In one study, participants were shown a film about a family on welfare. Prior to viewing the film, half of the participants were told that the film showed a highly unusual case. The other participants were told that the film showed a quite typical case. After viewing the film, participants were asked their opinions about welfare. On the basis of other evidence, we would expect to find that:

A) both groups of participants were influenced equally by the film
B) neither group of participants was influenced by the film
C) participants who were told that the case was unusual were less influenced by the film than those who viewed the typical case
D) participants who were told that the case was unusual were not influenced by the film

Question 9

Solomon remembers how Jacob acted last weekend, and the weekend before that. On the basis of this, Solomon is trying to figure out whether there is a pattern to Jacob's actions. Solomon is working on a problem of:

A) deduction
B) induction
C) confirmation
D) derivation

Question 10

An inductive judgment is one in which a person:

A) tries to make predictions about upcoming events on the basis of evidence already available
B) tries to make a cause-and-effect judgment about an observed state of affairs
C) begins with a general statement and asks what other specific claims follow from this
D) begins with specific facts or observations and seeks to draw a general conclusion from them

Question 11

The availability heuristic:

A) is a time-consuming strategy, so is employed by participants only when a judgment requires special care
B) leads us to overestimate frequency if category members are particularly difficult to remember
C) leads us to underestimate frequency because there are usually more category members beyond the ones we recall
D) often leads to correct estimates because availability in memory is often correlated with frequency in the world

Question 12

When we encounter a highly unusual event, we are particularly likely to notice and consider the event. As a consequence:

A) we are likely to think about how distinctive the event really is, leading us to underestimate the likelihood of this type of event
B) we are likely to think about the event as being in its own special category, and so the event will have little impact on our estimates of frequency
C) the event will be easy to recall, leading us to overestimate the likelihood of this type of event
D) the event will be difficult to recall, leading us to underestimate the likelihood of this type of event

Question 13

Reasoning from "man who" arguments is usually inappropriate because generalizing from a single case is justified only:

A) for heterogeneous categories
B) when the sample size is adequate
C) when the base rates are unknown
D) for truly homogeneous categories

Question 14

In several studies, participants have been asked to estimate the frequency of occurrence for various causes of death. The evidence suggests that participants' frequency estimates are strongly influenced by:

A) whether the cause of death was related to natural forces (e.g., lightning, tornado)
B) how often the cause of death is discussed in the news media
C) whether the cause of death is associated with prolonged suffering
D) how well the cause of death fits with participants' schematic knowledge

Question 15

"I can easily think of the names of several dishonest politicians, so I'm certain there are a lot of dishonest politicians!" This is an example of a judgment relying on:

A) illusory covariation
B) representativeness
C) anchoring
D) the availability heuristic

Question 16

A normative account is one that:

A) describes how things typically proceed
B) describes the data with no evaluation or judgment
C) indicates how things are supposed to proceed
D) indicates the pattern of the data, averaging across minor case-by-case variations

Question 17

Participants are told, "Hospital A has an average of 45 births per day; Hospital B has an average of only 15 births per day." The participants are then asked, "Which hospital is more likely to have a day in which at least 60% of the babies born are female?" In answering the question, participants:

A) seem insensitive to the fact that departures from the average case are more likely with a small sample
B) seem insensitive to the fact that departures from the average case are more likely with a larger sample
C) correctly realize that departures from the average case are not dependent on hospital size
D) answer in a fashion governed by the law of small numbers

Question 18

Your doctor has just asked you what sorts of things you eat in your normal, daily diet. After you answer the question, the doctor tells you what you should be eating. Your answer to the doctor was a _____ account of your diet; the doctor then provided a(n) _____ account.

A) descriptive; normative
B) descriptive; instructive
C) normative; declarative
D) inductive; prescriptive

Question 19

In using the representativeness heuristic, participants:

A) extrapolate from a sample of evidence if the category is homogeneous but not if the category is heterogeneous
B) are sensitive to the sample size and draw conclusions more readily from a large sample
C) seem to assume that all instances of the category resemble the prototype for that category
D) are unable to discriminate actual patterns of covariation

Question 20

An employer interviews a job candidate for 15 minutes. On the basis of this, the employer decides that the candidate will perform well in the job, so he hires her. This is a case of a:

A) sound decision because the employer is making use of available information
B) sound decision because the employer is employing base rates
C) potential error because the employer is assuming that a small sample of information (the interview) is representative of a broader pattern (job performance)
D) potential error because the employer is relying on schema-based reasoning rather than on deduction

Question 21

Which of the following is correct regarding dual-process models?

A) Both System 1 and System 2 in the model provide a quick and efficient way of making a judgment.
B) When we know that a judgment is important, we put more emphasis on System 2 to ensure an accurate outcome.
C) System 2 is more likely to be used if people are given training or cued by the situation.
D) System 2 is more likely to be used in situations where people are distracted or tired.

Question 22

Dual-process models state that people:

A) have two ways of thinking; one is a fast and automatic process, whereas the other is slower but more accurate
B) have two ways of thinking; one involved in heuristics and the other involved in anchoring
C) have two ways of thinking; one involved in availability heuristics and the other involved in representative heuristics
D) always take both the base rate and the diagnostic information into consideration when thinking about a situation

Question 23

The term "illusory covariation" refers to an error in which:

A) participants perceive an event as occurring far more often than it actually does
B) participants perceive two variables as being somehow linked to each other when in fact they are not
C) participants draw a conclusion on the basis of a biased or small sample of evidence
D) participants refuse to change their minds even though the available evidence clearly challenges their belief

Question 24

The text gives an example that juxtaposes Bart's claim that he has a great method for choosing lottery numbers because he used it and won once and Marge's claim that she has a great method that has worked for her 11 times. This example shows that:

A) people will never use statistical knowledge
B) people understand the risk associated with buying lottery tickets
C) people's judgments are too often based on the opinions of others
D) people understand that accidents happen, but don't keep happening

Question 25

Illusory covariations can be documented in:

A) novices, but only when the cases being judged are of low importance for the participants
B) well-trained professionals, but only when the professionals are making judgments outside of their area of expertise
C) novices but not in experts
D) individuals who have years of training in the domain being judged

Question 26

Fred is convinced that people who wear sandals cannot be trusted. People who wear shoes, though, seem trustworthy to Fred. This is a peculiar belief about:

A) anchoring
B) covariation
C) availability
D) representativeness

Question 27

Which of the following is TRUE if we consider the phrase "Prejudice decreases as education increases"?

A) Prejudice positively covaries with education.
B) Participants are able to infer correctly whether this is a weak or strong relationship.
C) Prejudice negatively covaries with education.
D) We can accurately determine the personalities of people who are likely to show prejudice.

Question 28

Studies indicate that participants:

A) uniformly neglect base-rate information
B) overutilize base-rate information even if other compelling information is presented
C) make sensible use of base-rate information if no other information is available
D) tend to integrate base-rate information with diagnostic information

Question 29

If Tabitha believes that detective shows are more dramatic than hospital shows, then confirmation bias would lead her to do all of the following EXCEPT be more likely to:

A) notice a detective show that is dramatic
B) overlook a hospital show that is dramatic
C) have her memory schemata remember more examples of dramatic detective shows than dramatic hospital shows
D) have her memory schemata remember more examples of dramatic hospital shows than dramatic detective shows

Question 30

When asked to judge covariation, participants:

A) seem to lack the knowledge and skills needed for the task
B) perform more accurately if they can supplement the data with their prior experience and knowledge
C) can provide reasonably accurate estimates if they have no prior beliefs about the data
D) do best if the relevant data are easily available to them

Question 31

Lucia reported to her father that she saw a hummingbird in their backyard. Her father, however, knows that hummingbirds are extremely rare in that part of the country. In this situation:

A) the diagnostic information confirms the base rate
B) the diagnostic information points toward one conclusion, but the base rate points toward a different conclusion
C) the base rate is known, but no diagnostic information is available
D) there are two pieces of diagnostic information, but no base-rate information

Question 32

A base rate is defined as information:

A) that helps us to identify which specific candidates have a target property
B) about the broad likelihood of a particular type of event
C) indicating the internal variability of a set or category
D) that can be used to diagnose an individual category member

Question 33

In an experiment, participants were told of a previously unknown tribe living on a Pacific island. Only one member of this tribe had been observed so far and was found to be obese. When asked how likely it was that all members of the tribe were obese, participants were unwilling to extrapolate this information. This shows that participants:

A) were using the representative heuristic
B) had prior beliefs about these islanders
C) are sometimes sensitive to the sample size and can take this into account when making a judgment
D) are unwilling to make a judgment as they are wary of making an error

Question 34

People tend to be more alert and responsive to evidence that supports their preexisting notions and beliefs than to evidence that challenges them. This effect is called:

A) confirmation bias
B) stereotypy
C) base-rate error
D) the covariation law

Question 35

Descriptive information that indicates that you are likely to be a member of a category (or fit the stereotype) is referred to as:

A) the base rate
B) diagnostic information
C) stereotype bias
D) confirmation bias

Question 36

Research into whether personality traits can be diagnosed by descriptions of ink blots has shown that:

A) novices sometimes detect illusory covariations but experts do not
B) both novices and experts are successful in finding true covariations
C) novices are often better than experts at detecting true covariations as they are less likely to be affected by confirmation bias
D) the pattern of observations that both experts and novices see is often not real but based on illusory covariations

Question 37

Participants tend NOT to use base-rate information if they are also given:

A) diagnostic information
B) the prior probabilities
C) statistical information
D) information about the random device used to select the test case

Question 38

The text suggests that illusory covariations arise from the fact that participants:

A) base their covariation estimates only on a small sample of the data that are available to them
B) are generally dogmatic and make their judgments with little regard for the data
C) do not know how to compute covariation, so they use an estimation strategy that is little better than guessing
D) do not know how to make these judgments, so performance improves once the participant gains some expertise

Question 39

The tendency toward anchoring is:

A) evident whenever an anchor is present
B) not detected if participants see clearly that the anchor was randomly chosen
C) only observed if the anchor is suggested by an authority figure
D) not observed if the anchor is known to be false

Question 40

The term "covariation" refers to:

A) the relationship between the frequency of objects in the world and their availability in memory
B) the pattern of evidence leading participants to the gambler's fallacy
C) a cause-and-effect relationship between two variables
D) the tendency in a pattern of data for observations of one sort to be linked to observations of another sort

Question 41

Data format seems to play an important role in decision-making because:

A) the correct format is more likely to trigger the necessary memory retrieval path
B) certain formats are more likely to trigger System 1
C) certain formats are more likely to trigger System 2
D) proportions are easiest to understand

Question 42

Tony is trying to decide which flavor of gelato his wife would best like. She has never had gelato before, so Tony bases his decision on her favorite kind of ice cream. Tony is using a(an) _____ to make his decision.

A) frequency estimate
B) attribute substitution
C) base rate
D) availability heuristic

Question 43

Training in statistics:

A) can help us make use of quick efficient heuristics rather than slower more effortful thinking
B) improves participants' ability to make judgments so that judgment errors will be less likely
C) improves participants' ability to make judgments but only when participants are trained in an abstract way
D) provides many benefits, but seems not to teach students how to make more accurate judgments

Question 44

In one experiment, participants were asked to list either 6 or 12 instances in their lives when they were assertive. Which of the following statements in NOT true about the participants who were asked to list only 6 instances?

A) Overall, they rated themselves as less aggressive.
B) They had an easier time fulfilling the task.
C) They were given an easier task than the 12-instance participants.
D) They relied on the availability heuristic when making their decision.

Question 45

Presumably, people would choose to use _____ when making judgments that aren't particularly important and _____ for more crucial decisions, but evidence suggests this is not the case.

A) System 1; System 2
B) System 2; System 1
C) heuristics; System 1
D) heuristics; System 2

Question 46

Some psychologists argue that because of environmental conditions during the times of our ancient ancestors, humans are better able to make judgments based on information presented as _____ than as _____.

A) percentages; fractions
B) abstract ideas; concrete examples
C) frequencies; probabilities
D) probabilities; frequencies

Question 47

Someone who is insensitive to base rates is likely to have all of the following problems EXCEPT:

A) have a hard time estimating covariation
B) be inaccurate at determining cause-and-effect relationship
C) overly rely on the representative heuristic
D) underuse diagnostic information

Question 48

Nisbett has argued that participants do understand the basic principles of statistics but often fail to use their knowledge. Which of the following situations does NOT contain one of the triggers that leads to the use of statistical knowledge?

A) The role of chance or accident is prominent in the problem under scrutiny.
B) The participant is scrutinizing a problem that is of great personal importance, so the participant is highly motivated to reason carefully and well.
C) The problem under scrutiny makes clear that the available evidence is a sample of data drawn from a larger set of potential observations.
D) The problem being considered involves a situation for which the participant has background beliefs emphasizing the role of luck or chance.

Question 49

Megan cannot sleep at night because she is terribly worried about being robbed, which is highly unlikely. As her friend, you want to help her by describing judgment errors and why she should not lose anymore sleep. Which concept is NOT contributing to her irrational fear?

A) base rates for getting robbed
B) availability heuristic for people getting robbed
C) memory bias for extreme events
D) sample size neglect for the number of robbers out there

Question 50

The law of large numbers implies that larger samples of data are less likely to show accidental patterns; therefore, larger samples are generally more informative. In making judgments about evidence, participants:

A) seem to understand and respect this law
B) ignore this law even though they do follow other principles of statistics
C) follow this law only if they have been trained in statistics
D) ignore this law in some situations but respect it in other situations

Question 51

Human judgment is bound to be subjective, and contains at least a few errors because:

A) decisions are often based on memories, and memory is sensitive to manipulations and errors
B) the human mind is incapable of storing everything it needs to make rational judgments all the time
C) we learn how to make judgments from other humans, thus it is inherently flawed
D) the process of evolution favored those individuals who were right most of the time and only occasionally made mistakes

Question 52

Studies indicate that training in statistics:

A) has little impact on how participants make judgments outside of the statistics class
B) improves participants' understanding of statistical principles but does not teach them how to apply the principles to actual cases
C) helps participants make more accurate judgments, but only if the participants were explicitly encouraged to apply their statistical knowledge
D) improves participants' performance in a variety of judgment problems

Question 53

Two groups of participants are asked to rate how likely it is a student will pass a physics exam. Group A is told that in the past only 30% of students have passed this test. Group B is told that this student is one of a sample of students, and among that sample, only 30% passed. Group B is more likely to:

A) use base rates in their decision
B) ignore the base-rate information
C) imply a cause-and-effect relationship between the pass rate and the student being judged
D) say the chance of the student passing is 0.3

Question 54

People with higher IQs are likely to use System 2 to:

A) overrule the automatic tendencies of System 1
B) entirely avoid making errors
C) downplay the use of heuristics, even if they would be helpful
D) ignore base rates

Question 55

Background knowledge can lead to mistakes, but it can also provide a benefit if:

A) the person is aware of heuristics
B) the knowledge is about how the parts of the problem are related
C) the person is very confident in his or her knowledge
D) it contains descriptive information