Deck 13: Reasoning: Thinking Through the Implications of What You Know

Question 1

Conditional statements follow the format of:

A) if A, then B
B) all A are B
C) some A are B
D) some A are not B

Answer 1

A

Question 2

In tests of logic, participants make huge numbers of errors, and the errors fall into systematic patterns. This is inconsistent with the claim that thought:

A) sometimes relies on pragmatic reasoning schemata
B) makes use of categorical syllogisms
C) proceeds according to the standard rules of logic, so reasoning errors are likely to be the result of carelessness
D) is affected by belief perseverance

Answer 2

C

Question 3

Which of the following claims is NOT true?

A) Pragmatic reasoning schemata are often more abstract than logical rules.
B) Pragmatic reasoning schemata often involve rules that people have learned from their day-to-day experiences.
C) Pragmatic reasoning schemata can be used to guide reasoning.
D) Pragmatic reasoning schemata often involve rules that are similar to the rules of logic.

Answer 3

A

Question 4

Isaac Newton's theories make a huge number of predictions, and the evidence generally fits with the predictions. Nonetheless, most physicists believe that Newton's theories are wrong; that is, they describe only a limited range of cases, rather than all of reality. This state of affairs highlights the ambiguity of:

A) normative data, because Newton's theory tells us little about how events should unfold
B) disconfirmation, because Newton's theory is easily disconfirmed
C) confirming evidence, because Newton's theory is well confirmed but still not true
D) hypothesis testing, because Newton's theory has resisted a broader test

Question 5

Participants are shown four cards, and each card has a word or symbol on each side. Participants are asked which cards they would need to turn over in order to test a certain rule. Participants' performance will be:

A) good regardless of what the rule is
B) poor unless the rule is framed in concrete terms
C) good if the rule involves the detection of cheaters
D) good if the rule involves modus tollens

Question 6

Which of the following is NOT an aspect of confirmation bias?

A) People seek evidence that is likely to fit with their beliefs, rather than evidence that might challenge their beliefs.
B) People fail to adjust their beliefs when they encounter facts that are inconsistent with their beliefs.
C) People often fail to consider alternative hypotheses that might explain the available data just as well as the current hypothesis does.
D) People seem to accept evidence that goes against their beliefs at face value but scrutinize evidence that is consistent with their beliefs.

Question 7

"All television shows are junk. Junk is not worth watching. Therefore, all television shows are not worth watching." This is an example of:

A) conditional reasoning
B) a categorical syllogism
C) modus ponens
D) induction

Question 8

People often make errors in deciding whether phrases with the format "If A is true, then B is true. A is not true. Therefore, B is not true" are valid or not. These errors are known as:

A) conversion errors
B) affirming the consequent
C) denying the antecedent
D) belief-bias errors

Question 9

Participants were presented with a group of numbers, such as 2, 4, 6, and were told that the numbers followed a certain rule. The participants' task was to determine the rule. Sam's hypothesis is this: The second number must be two higher than the first, and the third number must be two higher than the second. To test his hypothesis, Sam asks the experimenter, "Does 14, 16, 18 fit with the rule?" Sam's question:

A) is consistent with the pattern called confirmation bias
B) is contrary to the pattern called confirmation bias
C) may or may not reveal confirmation bias, depending on what the rule actually is
D) may or may not reveal confirmation bias, depending on how the experimenter answers

Question 10

According to an evolutionary psychological perspective, people will perform better on a reasoning problem if that problem can be related to:

A) hunting or gathering
B) permission
C) detecting cheaters or betrayal
D) statements about necessity rather than sufficiency

Question 11

When reasoning about conditional statements, people:

A) often have difficulty with statements that follow the rule of modus ponens
B) often have difficulty with statements that follow the rule of modus tollens
C) tend to have equal difficulty with statements that follow the rule of modus ponens and those that follow the rule of modus tollens
D) tend to be able to reason correctly with complex statements that follow the rule of modus ponens and also with those that follow the rule of modus tollens

Question 12

The term _____ refers to a tendency to affirm a conclusion that contains the word "all" if both premises contain the word "all."

A) belief perseverance
B) belief bias
C) conversion error
D) matching strategy

Question 13

Participants in an experiment were told that they were particularly good at a task requiring social skills. Later, they were told that this information was utterly bogus and that all participants had received the same feedback. Then, at the end of the experiment, the participants were asked just how good they thought their social skills really were. On the basis of other studies, we should predict that, in this final self-assessment, participants will:

A) show a strong contrast effect, thereby underestimating their social skills
B) continue to believe the information they initially received, thereby overestimating their social skills
C) be unable to integrate the sequence of inputs and will end up uncertain of how to assess their social skills
D) rely on their bias toward trusting the most recent information and will be able to disregard the initial (later identified as bogus) feedback

Question 14

Belief perseverance is one of the phenomena used to demonstrate:

A) normative thinking
B) confirmation bias
C) rigid thinking
D) nonselective memory search

Question 15

In a version of the Wason's four-card task, participants are told, "If a person wishes to drink alcohol, the person must be over 21 years old." Participants are then asked which cases they would need to investigate in order to determine whether the rule is being followed. Given the available evidence, we should expect that participants will reason:

A) well in testing this rule because participants always reason well when given the Wason's four-card task, regardless of its context
B) well in testing this rule because it is likely to be understood in terms of permission
C) poorly with this rule because the rule is based on a conditional statement
D) poorly with this rule because they are likely to blur the rule together with other similar cases they have encountered

Question 16

Participants are MORE likely to judge a syllogism to be valid if the:

A) syllogism is phrased in abstract terms
B) conclusion contains the word "all"
C) conclusion is a statement participants believe to be true on the basis of other knowledge
D) participants have been trained in logic

Question 17

A friend says to Henry, "You tend to be more reflective than the people around you." Henry is initially uncertain about whether this is true, and to find out, he is likely to search through memory looking for:

A) prior episodes in which he was reflective
B) prior episodes in which he failed to be reflective
C) prior episodes in which he was reflective and for ones in which he was not
D) any information at all that might bear on this suggestion

Question 18

"If P is true, then Q must be true. Q is not true. Therefore, P must not be true." This states:

A) the rule called modus tollens
B) the rule called modus ponens
C) an invalid conclusion
D) a categorical syllogism

Question 19

Deduction is a process that:

A) allows us to extrapolate from a sample of evidence
B) allows us to make specific predictions on the basis of more general knowledge
C) helps us to draw general conclusions on the basis of specific facts
D) helps us to determine whether a pattern exists in a set of observations

Question 20

Collectively, evidence from the belief bias and the matching strategy suggest that:

A) we base all our reasoning on the rules of logic
B) we base all our reasoning on the rules of logic as long as we endorse the conclusion that is being made
C) reasoning is guided by principles; however, these principles do not seem to follow the rules of logic
D) participants rarely make errors in logical reasoning, and when they do, it is usually due to carelessness

Question 21

When researchers speak of a decision's frame, they are referring to:

A) changes in one's assumptions about a decision that have the impact of altering the expected utility of that decision
B) aspects of how the decision to be made is phrased that are irrelevant to the utility of the decision
C) the pattern of needs and values that a participant brings to each decision
D) aspects of how a question is worded that have no impact on the participant's decisions about that question

Question 22

Research on decision-making indicates that participants:

A) consistently seek to maximize their expected value of utility
B) make choices guided by a strong tendency toward consistency with previous choices
C) show inconsistencies in their choices that follow no systematic pattern
D) are heavily influenced by minor changes in a problem's wording

Question 23

One theoretical account of the original (number and letter) version of the four-card problem states that the:

A) uniformly poor performance on this task suggests that participants are reading it as a question of sufficiency
B) uniformly poor performance on this task suggests that participants are reading it as a question of necessity
C) results on this task reflect the fact that this task is ambiguous with respect to necessity and sufficiency rules
D) performance on this task suggests that it cannot be cast in terms of necessity or sufficiency rules

Question 24

Participants tend to be:

A) more willing to gamble in the hope of reducing a loss rather than increasing what they own
B) more willing to gamble in the hope of increasing what they own rather than reducing a loss
C) equally likely to gamble to reduce a loss or to increase what they own
D) unreliable in terms of whether they gamble to reduce a loss or to increase what they own

Question 25

Which of the following observations would be inconsistent with the claim that participants often use mental models to guide their reasoning?

A) The greater the number of models needed to reason through a problem, the more likely errors are to occur.
B) Participants' self-reports often indicate a reliance on mental models.
C) Participants' performance improves if the premises of a problem are presented in a sequence that decreases the number of mental models needed to solve the problem.
D) If a problem's premises can be modeled in many different ways, the problem will be easier to solve.

Question 26

Of the following, the greatest concern associated with framing effects is that:

A) frames can lead participants to make risk-seeking decisions
B) frames can lead participants to make risk-averse decisions
C) frames can lead participants to ignore factors that are clearly pertinent to their decision
D) changes in a decision's frame can lead participants to contradict themselves

Question 27

Steve goes to the store to buy a radio. The store has two different models available, both of very good quality and at reasonable prices. Nevertheless, Steve buys neither. Given what we know about decision-making, the most promising explanation is that Steve:

A) couldn't find a persuasive reason for buying one radio rather than the other, so he bought neither
B) changed his mind in the store and decided he didn't want a radio after all
C) calculated the expected utility of further shopping and decided that that was his best option
D) realized that the utility of each radio was lower than its purchase price, making the radios unappealing

Question 28

Which of the following is NOT true about reason-based decision-making?

A) Decision-making is not influenced by short-cut strategies such as the representativeness heuristic.
B) Decision-making is influenced by dual-process models.
C) Sometimes participants rely on fast automatic strategies when making a decision, whereas sometimes they depend on slower, more accurate strategies.
D) Decision-making is influenced by confirmation bias.

Question 29

Which of the following claims about deductive logic is NOT true?

A) People can often handle simple logic problems (especially if they are based on modus ponens).
B) Only people trained in logic (e.g., logic teachers) can successfully use deductive logic.
C) People can rely on less formal reasoning strategies such as pragmatic reasoning schemata, as well as deductive logic.
D) People can rely on shortcuts, such as the matching strategy or belief bias, as well as deductive logic.

Question 30

Which of the following claims about mental models is NOT true?

A) Mental models translate abstract information into a relatively concrete presentation.
B) Participants are able to scrutinize a mental model in order to discover what conclusions follow from the modeled situation.
C) Each logical statement is compatible with just a single mental model.
D) Participants are likely to make more errors as the number of models needed to reason about a premise increases.

Question 31

The expected value of an option:

A) provides an estimate that is independent of the likelihood of reaching the action's desired outcome
B) can be calculated as a value independent of the action's consequences
C) is calculated as the utility of the likely outcome of the action multiplied by the probability of reaching that outcome
D) is negative if the likelihood of success with the action is extremely low

Question 32

Which of the following is NOT true about framing effects?

A) They can be found by asking the same question but rephrasing the problem's outcome.
B) They can be found by giving people the same information about a problem but rephrasing the question.
C) They do not occur for important decisions, such as deciding whether to use a medical treatment or which politician to vote for.
D) They are inconsistent with the utility theory of making decisions.

Question 33

In theories of decision-making, the utility of a particular commodity can be defined in terms of the:

A) degree of value associated with the commodity for a social group
B) value that has historically been placed on the commodity
C) monetary cost associated with the commodity
D) subjective value associated with the commodity for each individual

Question 34

Theorists have proposed a model of decision-making based on reasons rather than on the calculation of utilities. Their proposal is that participants decide to take one option rather than another only when:

A) the expected utility of the option is clearly greater than the expected utility of any other option
B) the choice fits socially defined norms
C) they see a compelling argument for making that choice
D) the decision is framed in terms of gains rather than losses

Question 35

Participants' great sensitivity to losses is evident in all of the following EXCEPT that participants:

A) will often take risky courses of action in hope of avoiding a loss
B) will avoid any gamble when confronting a potential loss to make certain they don't lose any more than necessary
C) tend to be risk-seeking when making a decision to try and reduce a loss
D) tend to be risk-averse when contemplating gains, preferring to keep what they already have

Question 36

Which of the following is NOT true about the role of emotion in decision-making?

A) People are often motivated to make decisions that will minimize feelings of regret.
B) Many decisions are based on an affect heuristic.
C) Research has suggested that emotional decisions are likely to be made by detached emotional appraisal rather than the emotional experience.
D) Emotional meaning can influence decisions to trade in old belongings for new ones.

Question 37

Which of the following is NOT a serious problem for the claim that our decisions are consistently made in accordance with utility theory?

A) People are heavily swayed by how a decision is phrased, even if the phrasing has no impact on utilities.
B) The expected value of utility decreases if the likelihood of its outcome decreases.
C) The same information, and thus utility value, can lead to different decision outcomes depending on how the question is asked.
D) People often find it difficult to compare values that are seemingly incommensurable (e.g., the monetary value of a car vs. how much it pollutes the environment).

Question 38

Research on framing effects demonstrates that people who are considering potential losses are likely to:

A) accept courses of action that contain an element of risk
B) minimize their degree of risk
C) choose options that are highly conservative
D) seek paths that will maximize their utility

Question 39

Mimi rarely takes chances because she hates the idea of losing. It sounds as though Mimi is:

A) impaired when making life judgments or decisions
B) being influenced by framing
C) being risk-averse
D) being risk-seeking

Question 40

Pragmatic reasoning schemata help participants to reason only if the problem:

A) involves familiar materials
B) triggers one of the schemata, such as permission or obligation
C) is phrased in concrete terms
D) avoids a cause-and-effect relationship

Question 41

People often estimate how a particular decision will affect them in the future. Which of the following is MOST likely to be true regarding people's ability to predict their own values?

A) People tend to underestimate how much they'll regret a decision later on.
B) People tend to overestimate their ability to adapt to new situations.
C) People tend to underestimate their ability to adapt to new situations.
D) People are often sure that their decisions are correct and so tend not to take steps to preserve their flexibility or options in the future.

Question 42

Imagine you are a judge and are asked to determine sole custody of a child to one of two divorcing parents. Parent A is closer with the child and has a good job, but works long hours and often has to travel. Parent B has a reasonable rapport with the child and average income, works 9 to 5 and never travels. Based on previous research, you are MOST likely to choose _____ if asked to "award custody" and _____ if asked which parent you would "deny custody."

A) Parent A; Parent B
B) Parent A; Parent A
C) Parent B; Parent A
D) Parent B; Parent B

Question 43

In the original version of the Wason four-card task, cards with A, 6, J, and 7 are shown. Participants must evaluate the rule "If a card has a vowel on one side, it must have an even number on the other side." People are very bad at performing this task, because they tend to:

A) pick cards that would confirm the rule
B) pick cards that would disconfirm the rule
C) be confused about the instructions
D) always select the cards in order from right to left

Question 44

According to utility theory, decisions are made that:

A) increase the benefits
B) decrease the costs
C) minimize the discrepancy between cost and benefit
D) make us feel the most useful

Question 45

A rooster thinks it causes the sun to rise, because every morning the rooster crows and then the sun rises. This story illustrates which important point about reasoning?

A) Roosters do not have the reasoning skills humans do, because humans would never make this type of reasoning mistake.
B) Sometimes there is no way to disprove something.
C) A belief can be confirmed hundreds of times, but still be false.
D) It is more important to confirm a theory than disconfirm it.

Question 46

Even though reason-based choice has some flaws as a theory in that people don't always follow its rules, the book suggests it can be defended as a _____ of decision-making:

A) normative theory
B) descriptive theory
C) hypothesis
D) quantitative model

Question 47

When making a decision, we are often influenced by somatic markers. These are:

A) bodily sensations, physical symptoms, or arousal
B) feelings of past guilt or regret
C) negative feelings that help us avoid bad decisions
D) positive feelings that help us make a good decision

Question 48

Adam bets on the Super Bowl every year. He thinks he has a really good strategy for selecting the winning team, and most years he wins. In 2009, he bet on Arizona, but Pittsburgh won. How is Adam likely to remember this loss?

A) He won't remember losing, he will think he selected Pittsburgh.
B) He won't remember losing, because he will misremember Arizona winning.
C) He will remember losing, and say his strategy doesn't always work.
D) He will remember losing, but say he should have won, if it wasn't for that interception in the second quarter.

Question 49

Deductive reasoning and inductive reasoning are similar in all of the following ways EXCEPT:

A) sophisticated thinking is possible in untrained people
B) professionals never make mistakes
C) responding changes if the situation or content changes
D) different neural systems are involved in specific tasks

Question 50

Which equation represents the way complex, multicomponent decisions would be made according to utility theory?

A) Expected value = [(probability of outcome 1) $\times$ (utility of outcome 1)] $\times$
[(probability of outcome 2) $\times$ (utility of outcome 2)]
B) Expected value = [(probability of outcome 1) $\times$ (utility of outcome 1)] +
[(probability of outcome 2) $\times$ (utility of outcome 2)]
C) Expected value = [(probability of outcome 1) $\times$ (utility of outcome 1)] -
[(probability of outcome 2) $\times$ (utility of outcome 2)]
D) Expected value = [(probability of outcome 1) $\times$ (utility of outcome 1)] ÷
[(probability of outcome 2) $\times$ (utility of outcome 2)]

Question 51

Which of the following factors is consistent with utility theory and NOT reason-based decision-making?

A) confirmation bias
B) System 1 thinking
C) representative heuristic
D) economic models

Question 52

Matt is given the following conditional statement: If A, then B
B is true.
Therefore, A is true.
Matt believes the conclusion is true. Is Matt correct?

A) Yes
B) No; he is affirming the consequent
C) No; he is denying the consequent
D) No; he is denying the antecedent

Question 53

Consider the following sentence: If Waffle has four legs and a tail, Waffle is a dog. In this sentence "has four legs and a tail" is _____ for the conclusion "Waffle is a dog."

A) necessary but not sufficient
B) necessary and sufficient
C) sufficient but not necessary
D) neither necessary nor sufficient

Question 54

When trying to figure out a rule, most people seek to _____ their theory, but people who seek to _____ their theory are more likely to get the answer correct.

A) confirm; perseverate
B) disconfirm; confirm
C) disconfirm; perseverate
D) confirm; disconfirm