Deck 12: Improving Decision Making

Question 1

An affective impression of an interviewee is NOT:

A)Made very quickly.
B)Likely to change many times during the interview.
C)Based on superficial features of the interviewee.
D)Falsely claimed to be instrumental in assessing personal fit.

Answer 1

B

Question 2

The most successful debiasing strategies tend to be:

A)Counter-intuitive.
B)Context-specific.
C)Good only for the short term.
D)Useful only for detecting bias.

Answer 2

B

Question 3

Intuition often leads us to believe that extroverted people who can speak coherently about their goals and their jobs are more likely to perform well.Which bias is characteristic of this belief?

A)Availability
B)Affect heuristic
C)Representativeness
D)Confirmation heuristic

Answer 3

C

Question 4

Transferring an insight from one problem to a related problem requires ________ _________.

Question 5

Which of the following biases did the Oakland Athletics baseball team overcome by implementing linear models in the team's management decisions?

A)Overweighting observed player performances.
B)Overgeneralizing from personal experiences.
C)Overweighting recent data.
D)All of the above.

Question 6

The statistical principle that dictates that extreme performances are subsequently likely to move closer to the group's average performance is known as ________________.

Question 7

Research has found that complex linear models produce _____________ improvements to simple linear models.

Question 8

One of the most general debiasing strategies,which forces people to explicitly consider alternatives to what they believe is the correct answer,is known as "consider the _________."

Question 9

A formula that weights and adds up the relevant predictor variables in order to make a quantitative prediction is known as a __________ __________.

Question 10

Describe each of the three debiasing stages (unfreezing,change,and refreezing)and explain the mechanisms that make each of them hard to implement.

Question 11

When "considering the opposite",after having estimated how likely one's conclusion is,assuming one's hypothesis is false,and thinking of alternative hypotheses,what is the next necessary step?

Question 12

What advantages and disadvantages does human judgment have compared to linear models when it comes to making quantitative predictions?

Question 13

Intensive,personalized feedback is moderately effective in improving long-term judgment.

Question 14

Which of the following has the lowest predictive power of a graduate student's future performance?

A)The student's score in the Graduate Record Examination (GRE).
B)The student's undergraduate Grade Point Average.
C)The student's performance in an interview.
D)The quality of the student's undergraduate school.

Question 15

Name one bias that can be reduced by learning to "consider the opposite".

Question 16

Discuss some of the reasons why managers continue to use unstructured employment interviews despite the abundant evidence that they are not useful for predicting future job performance.

Question 17

Participants who took part in two negotiation simulations were able to debias themselves more when asked about how the two simulations were related than when asked about the lesson of each simulation.

Question 18

Some judgmental biases have been found to be resistant to learning and feedback.