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The Distributed Lag Regression Model Requires Estimation Of (r+1)( r + 1 )

Question 28

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The distributed lag regression model requires estimation of (r+1)( r + 1 ) coefficients in the case of a single explanatory variable. In your textbook example of orange juice prices and cold weather, r=18r = 18 . With additional explanatory variables, this number becomes even larger.
Consider the distributed lag regression model with a single regressor
Yt=β0+β1Xt+β2Xt1+β3Xt2++βr+1Xtr+utY _ { t } = \beta _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } X _ { t } + \beta _ { 2 } X _ { t - 1 } + \beta _ { 3 } X _ { t - 2 } + \ldots + \beta _ { r + 1 } X _ { t - r } + u _ { t } (a) Early econometric analysis of distributed lag regression models was interested in reducing the number of parameters by approximating the coefficients by a polynomial of a suitable degree, i.e., βi+1f(i)\beta _ { i + 1 } \approx f ( i ) for i=0,1,,ri = 0,1 , \ldots , r . Let f(i)f ( i ) be a third degree polynomial, with coefficients α0,,α3\alpha _ { 0 } , \ldots , \alpha _ { 3 } . Specify the equations for β1,β2,β3,β4\beta _ { 1 } , \beta _ { 2 } , \beta _ { 3 } , \beta _ { 4 } and βr+1\beta _ { r + 1 } .

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