Which of the following represents a way that you could be misled by someone's personal probability?
A)A doctor overestimates your chances of having a certain disease.
B)A prosecutor gives the jury highly detailed scenarios of how/why the defendant "did it."
C)A salesman tries to get you to buy a $200 extended warranty on a video recorder by telling you about a customer who didn't get the extended warranty, and the day after the regular warranty ended, their recorder's motor mechanism broke, costing more to fix than to just buy a new one.
D)All of the above.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

All three of the choices represent situations where someone may use personal probability to mislead you. The doctor may be overly cautious and overestimate the chance of a disease to cover their own liability, the prosecutor may paint a highly detailed picture that is not entirely accurate to sway the jury, and the salesman may give a specific example to make it seem like the extended warranty is necessary, even though the likelihood of a breakdown may be low.

Which of the Following Represents a Way That You Could