Use this information to answer the following questions.
Consider the following Activity-On-Node (AON)PERT project.The three values that represent each activity's completion time (in days)correspond to an optimistic time,most likely time,and pessimistic time,respectively.

-Refer to the figure.What is the probability of completing the project within 18 days?
A)0.0668
B)0.4332
C)0.9332
D)0.4878
E)0.0122

Question

Use this information to answer the following questions.
Consider the following Activity-On-Node (AON)PERT project.The three values that represent each activity's completion time (in days)correspond to an optimistic time,most likely time,and pessimistic time,respectively.
 
-Refer to the figure.What is the probability of completing the project within 18 days?
A)0.0668 
B)0.4332 
C)0.9332 
D)0.4878 
E)0.0122

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

To find the probability of completing the project within 18 days, we need to calculate the standard deviation of the project duration and then use a z-table to find the probability. From the calculation, the standard deviation is 1.57 days. Using the formula for z-score, we get a value of -2.23. Looking at the z-table, the corresponding probability is approximately 0.013. Therefore, the probability of completing the project within 18 days is 0.013 or 1.3%. The only answer choice that matches this value is A).

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