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An Insurance Company Derives Its Revenues from Its Three Primary 2005 Revenues 2006 Growth Rates \quad \underline { 2005 \text { Revenues } } \quad \underline { 2006 \text { Growth Rates } }

Question 26

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An insurance company derives its revenues from its three primary business units: home insurance,auto insurance,and life insurance.The revenues for the year ending 2005,along with the potential growth rates per business unit for 2006 are illustrated below.
Business Unit 2005 Revenues 2006 Growth Rates \quad \underline { 2005 \text { Revenues } } \quad \underline { 2006 \text { Growth Rates } }
Home Insurance $500,000\quad \$ 500,000 \quad Normal; μ=7%,σ=2%\mu = 7 \% , \sigma = 2 \%
Auto Insurance $450,000\quad \$ 450,000 \quad Triangular, min=2%,max=6%\min = 2 \% , \max = 6 \% ,
\quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad most probable =4%= 4 \%
Life Insurance $550,000\quad \$ 550,000 \quad Uniform, min =4%,max=10%= 4 \% , \max = 10 \%
a.Use Crystal Ball to simulate total revenues for 2006.Run 1000 replications of the model to find the average revenues.
b.What is the probability that 2006 revenues will exceed $1.6 million?

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