Scenario 7.1 - Marshmallow Madness
Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table.
$\begin{array}{|l|c|}
\hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \
\hline \text { January } & 11 \
\hline \text { February } & 18 \
\hline \text { March } & 31 \
\hline \text { April } & 39 \
\hline \text { May } & 44 \
\hline \text { June } & 53 \
\hline \text { July } & 67 \
\hline \text { August } & 82 \
\hline \text { September } & 96 \
\hline
\end{array}$
-What is the trend component of Holt's model for period 0?
A)-2.5
B)10.3
C)2.5
D)6.4

Question

Scenario 7.1 - Marshmallow Madness
Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table.
 $\begin{array}{|l|c|}
\hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \
\hline \text { January } & 11 \
\hline \text { February } & 18 \
\hline \text { March } & 31 \
\hline \text { April } & 39 \
\hline \text { May } & 44 \
\hline \text { June } & 53 \
\hline \text { July } & 67 \
\hline \text { August } & 82 \
\hline \text { September } & 96 \
\hline
\end{array}$
-What is the trend component of Holt's model for period 0?
A)-2.5
B)10.3
C)2.5
D)6.4

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

To find the trend component of Holt's model for period 0, we need to first calculate the slope of the line connecting the first and last data points.
Using the formula for slope, we get:
slope = (y2 - y1)/(x2 - x1)
where y1 = 11 (January demand), y2 = 96 (September demand), x1 = 0 (January), and x2 = 8 (September)
slope = (96-11)/(8-0) = 85/8 = 10.625
Therefore, the trend component for period 0 is 10.625 * (-1) = -10.625 (since we're working backwards from September to January).
The closest answer choice is B: -10.3, which is within reasonable rounding error.

Scenario 7 -What Is the Trend Component of Holt's Model for Period