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The Living World 8th Edition by George Johnson
النسخة 8الرقم المعياري الدولي: 978-0078024214The Living World 8th Edition by George Johnson
النسخة 8الرقم المعياري الدولي: 978-0078024214 تمرين 2
You notice that on cloudy days people often carry umbrellas, folded or in a case. You also note that when umbrellas are open, there are many car accidents. You conclude that open umbrellas cause car accidents. Explain the type of reasoning used to reach this conclusion and why it can sometimes be a problem.
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In this question, we consider the two types of reasoning employed by scientists, and how inductive reasoning specifically can go awry using an example involving umbrellas and car accidents.
Scientists use two types of reasoning - deductive and inductive. These processes are largely the reverse of one another. In deductive reasoning, we use known principles to explain an observation we have made, but in inductive reasoning we use the observation to develop a new general principle. Both types of reasoning are important, but there can be specific issues with inductive reasoning such as creating false correlation - two phenomena might appear to be connected, but a third unrecognized variable is actually involved.
In the open umbrellas cause car accidents example, the observer connects the presence of umbrellas with the increase in car accidents. This is a false correlation, however - the open umbrellas are the result of the rain, and so is the increase in car accidents. Inductive reasoning can fall victim to this fault of logic and statistical reasoning; if two things are seen together frequently, there is a desire to link them, even if the two things are not actually linked.
Scientists use two types of reasoning - deductive and inductive. These processes are largely the reverse of one another. In deductive reasoning, we use known principles to explain an observation we have made, but in inductive reasoning we use the observation to develop a new general principle. Both types of reasoning are important, but there can be specific issues with inductive reasoning such as creating false correlation - two phenomena might appear to be connected, but a third unrecognized variable is actually involved.
In the open umbrellas cause car accidents example, the observer connects the presence of umbrellas with the increase in car accidents. This is a false correlation, however - the open umbrellas are the result of the rain, and so is the increase in car accidents. Inductive reasoning can fall victim to this fault of logic and statistical reasoning; if two things are seen together frequently, there is a desire to link them, even if the two things are not actually linked.
The Living World 8th Edition by George Johnson
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