Introduction to Management Science 12th Edition by Bernard Taylor

تمرين 20

Erin Jones has $100,000 and, to diversify, she wants to invest equal amounts of $50,000 each in two mutual funds selected from a list of four possible mutual funds. She wants to invest for a 3-year period. She has used historical data from the four funds plus data from the market to determine the mean and standard deviation (normally distributed) of the annual return for each fund, as follows:
The possible combinations of two investment funds are (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (2,3), (2,4), and (3,4).
a. Use Crystal Ball to simulate each of the investment combinations to determine the expected return in 3 years. (Note that the formula for the future value, FV , of a current investment, P , with return r for n years in the future is FV n = P r (1 + r ) n.) Indicate which investment combination has the highest expected return.
b. Erin wants to reduce her risk as much as possible. She knows that if she invests her $100,000 in a CD at the bank, she is guaranteed a return of $20,000 after 3 years. Using the frequency charts for the simulation runs in Crystal Ball, determine which combination of investments will result in the greatest probability of receiving a return of $120,000 or greater.