International Financial Management 2nd Edition by Geert Bekaert ,Robert Hodrick

تمرين 3

Consider the following hypothetical facts about Mexico: The peso recently lost over 40% of its value relative to the dollar. Over the course of the next 90 days, there is a 35% chance that the Mexican government will lose control of the economy. If it does, the peso will lose 33% of its value relative to the dollar, and the Mexican stock market will fall by 39%. Alternatively, the U.S. Congress may vote to help Mexico by offering collateral for Mexican government loans. In that case, the peso will appreciate 27% relative to the dollar, and the Mexican stock market will rise by 29%. As a U.S. investor with no current assets or liabilities in Mexico, you have decided to speculate. Calculate your expected dollar return from investing dollars in the Mexican stock market for the next 90 days.