Biomedical Informatics 4th Edition by Edward Shortliffe, James Cimino

Exercise 10

You have a patient with cancer who has a choice between surgery or che motherapy. If the patient chooses sur gery, he or she has a 2 % chance of dying from the operation (life expectancy=0), a 50 % chance of being cured (life expectancy=15 years), and a 48 % chance of not being cured (life expectancy=1 year). If the patient chooses chemotherapy, he or she has a 5 % chance of death (life expectancy=0), a 65 % chance of cure (life expectancy=15 years), and a 30 % chance that the cancer will be slowed but not cured (life expectancy=2 years). Create a decision tree Calculate the expected value of each option in terms of life expectancy.