Deck 12: Simulation and Risk Analysis

Question 1

Use the information below to answer the following questions). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & {\mathrm{A}} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\\hline 1 & \text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & & & & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & & & \\\hline 4 & & & & & & \\\hline 6 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & & & & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\\hline 18 & \text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \%\\\hline 19 & \text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20 & \text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% & & & & \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } \\\hline 23 & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28\\\hline 29& \text { Net present value} \\\hline\end{array}$
$\quad$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform.
[Hint: choose the closest value.]

-What cumulative profit in the fifth year is likely to be realized with a probability of 0.50?

A) $78,244,098
B) $101,970,955
C) $144,058,696
D) $203,676,827

Answer 1

$101,970,955

Question 2

Use the information below to answer the following questions). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & {\mathrm{A}} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\\hline 1 & \text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & & & & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & & & \\\hline 4 & & & & & & \\\hline 6 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & & & & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\\hline 18 & \text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \%\\\hline 19 & \text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20 & \text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% & & & & \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } \\\hline 23 & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28\\\hline 29& \text { Net present value} \\\hline\end{array}$
$\quad$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform.
[Hint: choose the closest value.]

-What is the standard deviation obtained from the simulation results of the net present value?

A) $204,868,924
B) $162,135,408
C) $182,992,245
D) $138,134,040

Answer 2

$138,134,040

Question 3

Which of the following statements is true of a triangular distribution?

A) We are required to know only the smallest and largest possible values that the variable might assume.
B) These distributions depend on multiple parameters that one can easily identify based on managerial knowledge and judgment.
C) The distribution has a limited range and can be skewed in either direction.
D) The distribution is very positively skewed, with no negative values.

Answer 3

The distribution has a limited range and can be skewed in either direction.

Question 4

Use the information below to answer the following questions). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & {\mathrm{A}} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\\hline 1 & \text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & & & & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & & & \\\hline 4 & & & & & & \\\hline 6 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & & & & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\\hline 18 & \text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \%\\\hline 19 & \text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20 & \text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% & & & & \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } \\\hline 23 & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28\\\hline 29& \text { Net present value} \\\hline\end{array}$
$\quad$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform.
[Hint: choose the closest value.]

-What is the expected loss ratio obtained from the simulation results of the net present value?

A) 93.50%
B) 72.45%
C) 67.32%
D) 86.32%

Question 5

What is the cost difference lower cutoff in thousands of dollars if the likelihood is 60%?

A) approximately 13.56
B) approximately 22.45
C) approximately 29.67
D) approximately 38.97

Question 6

What is the value of standard deviation obtained from the simulation results?

A) $9,175
B) $7,884
C) $3,860
D) $12,870

Question 7

What is the value of mean obtained from the simulation results?

A) $18,385
B) $21,608
C) $14,894
D) $23,946

Question 8

Why is the ROUND function used in Excel?

A) to ensure that the values generated are whole numbers
B) to ensure that the values generated are multiples of ten
C) to ensure that the values generated are always positive
D) to ensure that the values are even numbers

Question 9

Use the information below to answer the following questions). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & {\mathrm{A}} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\\hline 1 & \text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & & & & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & & & \\\hline 4 & & & & & & \\\hline 6 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & & & & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\\hline 18 & \text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \%\\\hline 19 & \text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20 & \text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% & & & & \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } \\\hline 23 & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28\\\hline 29& \text { Net present value} \\\hline\end{array}$
$\quad$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform.
[Hint: choose the closest value.]

-What is the correlation of the R&D cost with the NPV with reference to the sensitivity chart?

A) -0.404
B) 0.028
C) 0.908
D) -0.194

Question 10

Use the information below to answer the following questions). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & {\mathrm{A}} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\\hline 1 & \text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & & & & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & & & \\\hline 4 & & & & & & \\\hline 6 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & & & & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\\hline 18 & \text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \%\\\hline 19 & \text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20 & \text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% & & & & \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } \\\hline 23 & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28\\\hline 29& \text { Net present value} \\\hline\end{array}$
$\quad$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform.
[Hint: choose the closest value.]

-What is the coefficient of variation obtained from the simulation results of the net present value?

A) 1.78392
B) -2.23958
C) -1.36659
D) 2.87645

Question 11

What is the expected loss determined from the simulation results?

A) $78)
B) $120)
C) $60)
D) $47)

Question 12

Which of the following best defines Monte Carlo simulation?

A) It is a tool for building statistical models that characterize relationships among a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
B) It is a collection of techniques that seeks to group or segment a collection of objects into subsets.
C) It is the process of selecting values of decision variables that minimizes or maximizes some quantity of interest.
D) It is the process of generating random values for uncertain inputs in a model and computing the output variables of interest.

Question 13

What is the cost difference upper cutoff in thousands of dollars if the likelihood is 75%?

A) approximately 46
B) approximately 28
C) approximately 32
D) approximately 59

Question 14

Use the information below to answer the following questions). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & {\mathrm{A}} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\\hline 1 & \text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & & & & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & & & \\\hline 4 & & & & & & \\\hline 6 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & & & & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\\hline 18 & \text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \%\\\hline 19 & \text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20 & \text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% & & & & \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } \\\hline 23 & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28\\\hline 29& \text { Net present value} \\\hline\end{array}$
$\quad$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform.
[Hint: choose the closest value.]

-Which year shows the highest mean net cumulative profit?

A) Year 1
B) Year 2
C) Year 4
D) Year 5

Question 15

What is the value of mode obtained from the simulation results?

A) $28,435
B) $22,485
C) $27,198
D) $25,394

Question 16

What is the value of mean absolute deviation obtained from the simulation results?

A) $10,893
B) $3,476
C) $7,443
D) $5,885

Question 17

Use the information below to answer the following questions). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & {\mathrm{A}} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\\hline 1 & \text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & & & & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & & & \\\hline 4 & & & & & & \\\hline 6 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & & & & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\\hline 18 & \text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \%\\\hline 19 & \text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20 & \text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% & & & & \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } \\\hline 23 & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28\\\hline 29& \text { Net present value} \\\hline\end{array}$
$\quad$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform.
[Hint: choose the closest value.]

-What are the chances that the product will show a cumulative net profit in the fourth year?

A) approximately 25%
B) approximately 18%
C) approximately 11%
D) approximately 32%

Question 18

Use the information below to answer the following questions). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & {\mathrm{A}} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\\hline 1 & \text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & & & & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & & & \\\hline 4 & & & & & & \\\hline 6 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & & & & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\\hline 18 & \text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \%\\\hline 19 & \text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20 & \text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% & & & & \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } \\\hline 23 & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28\\\hline 29& \text { Net present value} \\\hline\end{array}$
$\quad$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform.
[Hint: choose the closest value.]

-What is the risk that the net present value over the 5 years will not be positive?

A) approximately 40%
B) approximately 57%
C) approximately 24%
D) approximately 77%

Question 19

Use the information below to answer the following questions). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & {\mathrm{A}} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\\hline 1 & \text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & & & & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & & & \\\hline 4 & & & & & & \\\hline 6 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & & & & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\\hline 18 & \text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \%\\\hline 19 & \text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20 & \text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% & & & & \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } \\\hline 23 & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28\\\hline 29& \text { Net present value} \\\hline\end{array}$
$\quad$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform.
[Hint: choose the closest value.]

-What is the expected value margin obtained from the simulation results of the net present value?

A) 0.864
B) -0.726
C) 0.343
D) -0.467

Question 20

Use the information below to answer the following questions). Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & {\mathrm{A}} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\\hline 1 & \text { Trance Electronics } & & & & & \\\hline 2 & & & & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & & & \\\hline 4 & & & & & & \\\hline 6 & \text { Market size } & 20,000,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue } & \$ 120.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost } & \$ 50.00 \\\hline 8 & \text { Discount rate } & 8 \% \\\hline 9 & & \\\hline 10 & \text { Project costs } & \\\hline 11 & \text { R\&D } & \$ 750,000,000 \\\hline 12 & \text { Clinical Trials } & \$ 100,000,000 \\\hline 13 & \text { Total Project Costs } & \\\hline 14 & & & & & & \\\hline 15 & \text { Model } & & & & & \\\hline 16 & & & & & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\\hline 18 & \text { Market growth factor } & & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \% & 4 \%\\\hline 19 & \text { Market size } & & & & & \\\hline 20 & \text { Market share growth rate } & & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% & 18 \% \\\hline 21 & \text { Market share } & 7 \% & & & & \\\hline 22 & \text { Sales } \\\hline 23 & \\\hline 24 & \text { Annual revenue } \\\hline 25 & \text { Annual costs } \\\hline 26 & \text { Profit } \\\hline 27 & \text { Cumulative net profit } \\\hline 28\\\hline 29& \text { Net present value} \\\hline\end{array}$
$\quad$ Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform.
[Hint: choose the closest value.]

-What is the correlation of the market size with the NPV with reference to the sensitivity chart?

A) 0.043
B) 0.888
C) -0.341
D) -0.026

Question 21

Uniform or triangular distributions are used in the absence of data.

Question 22

As Monte Carlo simulation is essentially statistical sampling, the larger the number of trials used, the more precise is the result.

Question 23

Answer the following questions) using the Analytic Solver Platform 5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
[Hint: choose the closest value.]
Consider the spreadsheet for a Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel. $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | l | l | } \hline & { \text { A } } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Monte Carlo Sirnulation } & & & \text { Histarical } & \\& \text { in Exarel } & && \text { Candy Sales } & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 & & & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Selling price } & \$ 18.00 & & 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discourt price } & \$ 9.00 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Dernand } & 44 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & && 48 & \$ 264.00\\\hline 21 &&&\text { Average Profit }\\\hline\end{array}$$ $\quad$

-What is the value of standard deviation?

A) $12.50
B) $10.99
C) $15.86
D) $20.25

Question 24

What is Monte Carlo simulation?

Question 25

Answer the following questions) using the Analytic Solver Platform 5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
[Hint: choose the closest value.]
Consider the spreadsheet for a Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel. $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | l | l | } \hline & { \text { A } } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Monte Carlo Sirnulation } & & & \text { Histarical } & \\& \text { in Exarel } & && \text { Candy Sales } & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 & & & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Selling price } & \$ 18.00 & & 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discourt price } & \$ 9.00 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Dernand } & 44 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & && 48 & \$ 264.00\\\hline 21 &&&\text { Average Profit }\\\hline\end{array}$$ $\quad$

-Which of the following cells is defined as the uncertain function cell?

A) B12
B) B14
C) B15
D) B17

Question 26

Answer the following questions) using the Analytic Solver Platform 5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
[Hint: choose the closest value.]
Consider the spreadsheet for a Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel. $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | l | l | } \hline & { \text { A } } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Monte Carlo Sirnulation } & & & \text { Histarical } & \\& \text { in Exarel } & && \text { Candy Sales } & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 & & & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Selling price } & \$ 18.00 & & 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discourt price } & \$ 9.00 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Dernand } & 44 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & && 48 & \$ 264.00\\\hline 21 &&&\text { Average Profit }\\\hline\end{array}$$ $\quad$

-What is the value of mean profit?

A) $255.90
B) $251.45
C) $245.98
D) $264.00

Question 27

Answer the following questions) using the Analytic Solver Platform 5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
[Hint: choose the closest value.]
Consider the spreadsheet for a Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel. $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | l | l | } \hline & { \text { A } } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Monte Carlo Sirnulation } & & & \text { Histarical } & \\& \text { in Exarel } & && \text { Candy Sales } & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 & & & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Selling price } & \$ 18.00 & & 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discourt price } & \$ 9.00 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Dernand } & 44 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & && 48 & \$ 264.00\\\hline 21 &&&\text { Average Profit }\\\hline\end{array}$$ $\quad$

-What is the value of mode?

A) $228
B) $245
C) $255
D) $264

Question 28

A normal distribution has a limited range and can be skewed in either direction.

Question 29

Answer the following questions) using the Analytic Solver Platform 5000 trials per simulation; use the Latin Hypercube sampling method).
[Hint: choose the closest value.]
Consider the spreadsheet for a Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel. $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | l | l | } \hline & { \text { A } } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Monte Carlo Sirnulation } & & & \text { Histarical } & \\& \text { in Exarel } & && \text { Candy Sales } & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 2 & & && 50 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 4 & & & & 40 & \$ 228.00 \\\hline 5 & \text { Selling price } & \$ 18.00 & & 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 6 & \text { Cost } & \$ 12.00 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 7 & \text { Discourt price } & \$ 9.00 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 8 & & && 46 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 10 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 11 & \text { Dernand } & 44 & & 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 12 & \text { Purchase Quantity } & 44 && 47 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 13 & & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 14 & \text { Quantity Sold } & && 41 & \$ 237.00 \\\hline 15 & \text { Surplus Quantity } & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 16 & & && 51 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 17 & \text { Profit } & && 43 & \$ 255.00 \\\hline 18 & & && 45 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 19 & & && 42 & \$ 246.00 \\\hline 20 & & && 44 & \$ 264.00 \\\hline 21 & & && 48 & \$ 264.00\\\hline 21 &&&\text { Average Profit }\\\hline\end{array}$$ $\quad$

-What is the value of mean absolute deviation?

A) $8.91
B) $5.45
C) $12.35
D) $15.64