Deck 4: Modeling Decision Processes

Question 1

The typical decision-maker, more often than one might imagine, fails to formally and concisely identify the problem at hand before beginning the process of solving it.

Answer 1

True

Question 2

A problem is defined as the difference between the current state of affairs and the desired state of affairs.

Answer 2

True

Question 3

A common error when creating a problem statement is to prematurely focus on the possible solutions.

Answer 3

True

Question 4

One way to determine what the real underlying problem is to expore the reasons why an alternative is viable.

Question 5

The priorities of a decision maker are determined by the size of the solution.

Question 6

The priorities of a decision maker are affected by the scope of the problem.

Question 7

A designer must never revise a decision made at one point in the process to account for a change made in another.

Question 8

There are always at least two possible alternative problem solutions.

Question 9

Problem structures can be described in terms of three fundamental components: (1) choices, (2) uncertainties, and (3) objectives.

Question 10

Implicit in the concept of choice is the existence of multiple alternatives.

Question 11

In an influence diagram, the three components of a problem structure are represented by specific shapes and are combined and connected to represent the problem being modeled.

Question 12

Although the solution may be obvious, problem structures always have a clear beginning.

Question 13

An optimal solution is always guaranteed when using a simulation model.

Question 14

Conceptual models can be thought of as analogies to the problem context.

Question 15

In a deterministic model, a variable can have multiple values and must therefore be described by a probability function.

Question 16

In a stochastic model, no variable can take on more than one value at a given time.

Question 17

According to Howard's test of clarity, the events of every model should be fully determined without interpretation.

Question 18

Decisions made in conditions of certainty are the most difficult.

Question 19

Hayes Model Base Rule is used to determine the appropriate forecasting technique for DSSs.

Question 20

Odds forecasting is a common technique for eliciting subjective probability.

Question 21

Which of the following is not a component of a problem statement?

A) The desired state of affairs
B) The current state of affairs
C) The past state of affairs
D) None of the above.

Question 22

Which of the following is not part of the design of a problem structure?

A) The relationship between elemental details and the final appearance of the solution
B) The interim solution
C) The final problem solution
D) None of the above.

Question 23

Which of the following is not a tool for modeling the structure of a problem?

A) Problem analysis case
B) Decision tree
C) Influence diagram
D) None of the above.

Question 24

Which of the following is not a decision tree rule?

A) The branches represent all possible outcomes.
B) The branches are structured to allow for multiple choices per branch.
C) All possible alternatives are fully mapped.
D) None of the above.

Question 25

Which of the following is not a decision model classification?

A) Domain-specific models
B) Abstract variation models
C) Stochastic models
D) None of the above.

Question 26

Which of the following is not a requirement of probability?

A) All probabilities must be within the range of -1 to 1.
B) The probabilities of all individual outcomes of an event must add up to the probability of their union.
C) The total probability of the complete set of outcomes must be equal to 1.
D) All of the above are requirements of probability.

Question 27

Probability can be expressed as:

A) long-run.
B) subjective.
C) logical.
D) All of the above.

Question 28

Which of the following is not a technique for forecasting probability?

A) Logical forecasting
B) Direct forecasting
C) Odds forecasting
D) Comparison forecasting

Question 29

Models that do not explicitly acknowledge time are called:

A) static models.
B) dynamic models.
C) simulation models.
D) stochastic models.

Question 30

The concept of __________ suggests that while a probability may be derivable, its accuracy may not be acceptable under any circumstances.

A) subjective probability
B) logical probability
C) long-run probability
D) stochastic probability

Question 31

Which of the following affects the selection of a forecasting technique?

A) Problem structure
B) Availability
C) Problem size
D) All of the above.

Question 32

Which of the following affects the selection of a forecasting technique?

A) Precision
B) Complexity
C) DSS designer preference
D) All of the above.

Question 33

Rather than a single probability estimation we might benefit from an estimation of the worst-case scenario and the best-case scenario. Properly constructed, we can say that the actual probability estimate lies somewhere between these two values. This range of values is referred to as a ________.

A) probability estimation
B) t-test
C) logical probability
D) confidence interval

Question 34

A method used to determine the degree to which the alteration of an underlying assumption has a material effect on the results obtained from a model is known as:

A) simulation.
B) sensitivity analysis.
C) discriminant validity.
D) None of the above.

Question 35

Which of the following is not a suitable technique for eliciting numerical subjective probability estimations that can then be combined with other estimates using the laws of probability?

A) Direct forecasting
B) Odds forecasting
C) Ad hoc forecasting
D) Comparison forecasting

Question 36

A model in which at least one of the variables in the model is uncertain and must be described by some probability function is known as a:

A) static model.
B) stochastic model.
C) deterministic model.
D) dynamic model.

Question 37

A model which focuses on the mathematical precision with which various outcomes can be predicted is referred to as a(n):

A) static models.
B) dynamic models.
C) simulation models.
D) abstract models.

Question 38

Which of the following is true of Howard's Test of Clarity?

A) The influence diagram contains at least three alternatives.
B) All of the components of the context model are clearly defined.
C) Long-run probability is utilized.
D) All of the above.

Question 39

In any choice there is a(n) _____ probability of at least one alternative being selected and there is an ____ probability of any particular one being selected.

A) unequal, equal
B) 0%, unequal
C) 100%, equal
D) 100%, unequal

Question 40

Which type of forecasting presents the decision maker with a choice between participating in one or two lottery-type games?

A) Comparison forecasting
B) Odds forecasting
C) Direct probability forecasting
D) Calibration forecasting

Question 41

Identify the steps in creating a simulation model.