Deck 14: Note : Scenario Analysis
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Deck 14: Note : Scenario Analysis
1
When developing scenarios for analysis and planning,it is best to choose ________ within each driver.
A) a single level
B) all possible levels
C) the most likely levels
D) a few different levels
A) a single level
B) all possible levels
C) the most likely levels
D) a few different levels
D
2
Factors and forces that influence a firm's future are known as ________.
A) scenarios
B) drivers
C) domains
D) policies
A) scenarios
B) drivers
C) domains
D) policies
B
3
What is a scenario analysis? What are the basic steps involved in conducting a scenario analysis?
Scenario analysis is an "if ...and if ...and if ...and if ...[all at the same time],then ..." tool in which multiple forces ("drivers" of future conditions)are simultaneously combined to create rich "possible futures" or scenarios.In scenario analysis,several drivers,such as interest rates,regulations,and competitive intensity,are combined to create descriptions of complex possible "futures"which may not come true,but could.Scenario analysis can be reduced to a few basic steps:
1.Define the scope of the analysis;
2.Identify the drivers of future strategic contexts;
3.Select specific levels,changes,or events within
each driver to frame the future;
4.Combine those drivers and levels/changes/events
to develop comprehensive scenarios;
5.Select three or four scenarios for analysis;
6.Analyze and plan for each selected scenario; and
7.Integrate results to identify near- and long-term
directions,actions,and investments and
to appraise strategic alternatives.
1.Define the scope of the analysis;
2.Identify the drivers of future strategic contexts;
3.Select specific levels,changes,or events within
each driver to frame the future;
4.Combine those drivers and levels/changes/events
to develop comprehensive scenarios;
5.Select three or four scenarios for analysis;
6.Analyze and plan for each selected scenario; and
7.Integrate results to identify near- and long-term
directions,actions,and investments and
to appraise strategic alternatives.
4
Scenario analysis is primarily useful for ________.
A) short-term strategizing
B) internal assessment
C) long-term strategizing
D) economic assessment
A) short-term strategizing
B) internal assessment
C) long-term strategizing
D) economic assessment
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5
The use of scenario analysis necessitates precise forecasting data.
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6
A ________ analysis is described in the text as an "if...then..." planning tool.
A) SWOT
B) scenario
C) marketing
D) forecasting
A) SWOT
B) scenario
C) marketing
D) forecasting
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7
When conducting a scenario analysis,a marketer focuses on a single factor to develop an effective and realistic strategy for possible future situations.
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8
The scenario analysis process should result in ________ and ________ for each scenario.
A) drivers; tactics
B) futures; realities
C) strategies; tactics
D) drivers; strategies
A) drivers; tactics
B) futures; realities
C) strategies; tactics
D) drivers; strategies
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9
During the scenario analysis process,a firm's current strategies should be tested within the framework of each scenario.
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10
According to the text,it is best to develop ________ scenarios when preparing future strategies.
A) 1-2
B) 3-4
C) 5-6
D) 7-8
A) 1-2
B) 3-4
C) 5-6
D) 7-8
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11
What is the final step in the scenario analysis process?
A) assessing strategic alternatives
B) developing multiple scenarios
C) identifying significant drivers
D) planning for each scenario
A) assessing strategic alternatives
B) developing multiple scenarios
C) identifying significant drivers
D) planning for each scenario
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12
Which of the following is the LEAST relevant factor when defining the scope of a scenario analysis?
A) time frame
B) industry
C) consumer
D) market
A) time frame
B) industry
C) consumer
D) market
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13
Which of the following questions would most likely be answered by a scenario analysis?
A) What will the world be like in the future?
B) Who will our competitors be in the future?
C) What should we do now to prepare for the future?
D) What should we do to accurately assess the future?
A) What will the world be like in the future?
B) Who will our competitors be in the future?
C) What should we do now to prepare for the future?
D) What should we do to accurately assess the future?
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14
As a marketer,you have already defined the scope of a scenario analysis.What should you do next?
A) develop comprehensive scenarios
B) choose a specific time frame
C) analyze selected scenarios
D) identify industry drivers
A) develop comprehensive scenarios
B) choose a specific time frame
C) analyze selected scenarios
D) identify industry drivers
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