Deck 3: Demand Creation and Predictive Planning

Question 1

Strategies for the introduction of new products and for replacement of existing products must be formulated with the fact in mind that operations managers' time and talents are limited resources.

Answer 1

True

Question 2

Businesspeople often use their sense of what is happening to reach decisions that might be better made if someone had kept a record of what had taken place already.In other words,empirical analysis can be helpful.

Answer 2

True

Question 3

Active participation of P/OM involves learning about what is being done elsewhere and then trying to get Best Practice adopted whenever possible.

Answer 3

True

Question 4

Stable patterns that persist for a short period of time make company forecasters confident that a credible job of forecasting can be done.

Question 5

History forecasting is forecasted only on a semiannual,quarterly,or monthly basis.

Question 6

If P/OM know-how is not properly represented,then strategic planning is operating at a limited level.

Question 7

Forecasting momentum in the time series being forecast is observed to follow a course or direction that appears to be the result of an inherent force.

Question 8

Illustrating the distinction between strategies and tactics helps to further define strategy: This entails doing "things" right (tactical choice) before doing the right "thing" (strategic choice)!

Question 9

Operations managers are only involved in carrying out strategic plans when they are a part of the strategic planning team.

Question 10

Marketing is responsible for the intelligent management of the production transformation process which changes in various ways according to the life cycle stage.

Question 11

The historical forecast is not based on the assumption that what happened last year will happen again.

Question 12

The trick to forecasting life cycle stages is to estimate how fast demand will increase over time,and for how long a period growth will continue.

Question 13

In the time series analysis,external causes are brought into the picture.

Question 14

The cycle of the new product is similar to that of the one that is replaced in that it goes through introduction,growth,maturation,and decline.

Question 15

Forecasting cannot be done without mathematics.

Question 16

Strategy is directed at winning the "war," while tactics are designed to win the "battles."

Question 17

During the growth stage the input-output relationship reaches equilibrium.

Question 18

Many decisions require believable forecasts before they can be made.

Question 19

Those responsible for strategic planning must know enough to seek out the appropriate specialists as conditions warrant.

Question 20

In smaller firms,the systems perspective dictates that representatives of all of the functional departments that "know something about the business" play a part in strategy development.

Question 21

Absolute measures are signified by open brackets (see below) which mean that positive and negative errors are not treated the same way.

Question 22

When the direction and magnitude of the trend is inconclusive and the pattern is not consistent,then the fewer the number of periods in the set,the better.

Question 23

MAD is the most conservative estimate of error.

Question 24

During linear regression analysis,when outcomes are to be forecast,the knowledge that one time series leads another is not valuable information.

Question 25

Formal methods can be used to evaluate how well different forecasting techniques are doing.

Question 26

The standard deviation of the error distribution is closely approximated by MAPE.

Question 27

The only forecasting error that can occur is when actual demand is greater than forecasting.

Question 28

When actual demand results are known,the various forecasting methods are evaluated again,and the one that is least successful is chosen to make the prediction for the next period.

Question 29

Usually,stronger forecasts can be obtained if both data and experience are pooled.

Question 30

In the weighted moving average,the biggest weights are assigned to the most recent events when there is a continuing trend.

Question 31

The most common measure of error is called squared error measure (MSE).

Question 32

A causal factor common to both x and y which operates as an unknown link may be responsible for whatever relationship is found.

Question 33

When using regression analysis the simplest assumption that is generally made first is that the relationship between the correlate pairs is nonlinear.

Question 34

MAD is simply the sum of all the error terms and is useful when overestimation errors cancel out underestimation errors.

Question 35

When considering a linear regression analysis,the least-squares line minimizes the total variance of the distances of the observed points from the theoretical line.

Question 36

MAPE reveals poor forecasts.

Question 37

In the moving average,being slow is acceptable if there is a gradual trend with some variability in successive values.

Question 38

Weighted moving averages cannot track strong trends more accurately than unweighted moving averages.

Question 39

Not all forecasting errors are based on comparing the actual demand for a time period with the forecast demand for that same period.

Question 40

How far to go back in calculating moving averages depends on the recency of events that tend to determine the future. "Very recent" means more values;"not so recent" means few values.

Question 41

It is good procedure to calculate a correlation coefficient when a least-squares line has been derived.

Question 42

Increased competition has led to higher levels of market volatility.

Question 43

_____ is the comprehensive and overall planning for the organization's future.

A)Adaptation
B)Conversion
C)Profit maximization
D)Strategy

Question 44

The terms strategy and tactics have military origins.

Question 45

Active participation of P/OM is characterized by doing just what is asked and nothing more.

Question 46

It is not necessary for various forecasters in an organization to pool or share their forecasts and information.

Question 47

When actual demand is significantly less than the forecast,there is a substantial forecasting underestimate.

Question 48

Many companies are divided into _____ in order to help them define clear,strong,and effective strategies.

A)tactical units
B)strategic business units
C)departments
D)marketing units

Question 49

Typically the participants in a Delphi Method are encouraged to move toward consensus.

Question 50

Strategy entails broad-based,cooperative goal setting followed by planning to achieve this goal:

A)survival of the organization under stress.
B)adaptation to a global business environment.
C)conversion from a reactive mode to a proactive mode.
D)all of the above

Question 51

Strategic thinking and planning to realize objectives involves teamwork.

Question 52

To compete in the global market,companies must deal with different time zones around the world.

Question 53

Operation centers are where the work is done that creates the product that customers buy.

Question 54

The coefficient of determination is the square of the corelation coefficient.

Question 55

If a moving average trend is gradual,either up or down,and if fluctuations around the average are common,then having fewer periods of time in the set is better than having too many.

Question 56

Syzygy is a Greek work for conjunction.In business,various forces sometimes line up in this way causing larger than normal amplitudes in time series values.

Question 57

@RISK uses Monte Carlo simulation to answer "what-if" questions and allows planners and decision makers to take into account all possible outcomes of any particular course of action.

Question 58

A way to make forecasts more responsible to the most recent actual occurrences is to use weighted moving averages.

Question 59

Time series data also can reflect erratic bursts called pulses.

Question 60

Delphi is a forecasting method that relies on expert estimation of past events.

Question 61

All products and services go through the following stages:

A)introduction,growth,maturity,decline.
B)introduction,maturity,decline.
C)introduction,decline.
D)growth,decline.

Question 62

Assume that in 2008 the quarterly demands were 10,30,20,and 40.This would give a yearly demand of 100 units.Further,assume that in 2009 the annual demand is expected to increase to 130 units.Then,the model for the second quarter (2nd Q) forecast adjustments would be

A)130(30/100) = 39.
B)100(40/100) = 52.
C)10(130/100) = 39.
D)40(100/130) = 31.

Question 63

_____ and _____ are sales that move around the globe in response to currency fluctuations that are increasingly unstable.

A)Inputs;outputs
B)Exports;imports
C)Time;extrapolation
D)Methods;forecasting

Question 64

_____ are the basic pallet for the development of forecasting models.

A)Cycles
B)Trends
C)Steps
D)all of the above

Question 65

Extrapolations of time series can be based on

A)cyclical wave patterns.
B)trend lines.
C)step functions.
D)combinations of any or all of these patterns.

Question 66

Assume that in 2008 the quarterly demands were 10,30,20,and 40.This gives a yearly demand of 100 units.Further,assume that in 2009 the annual demand is expected to increase to 120 units.Then,the model for the second quarter (2ⁿᵈ Q) forecast adjustments would be

A)120(35/100) = 42.
B)120(30/100) = 36.
C)120(20/120) = 20.
D)120(40/150) = 32.

Question 67

_____ allow(s) P/OM to excel at capacity planning and production scheduling for mature manufactured products and services.

A)Forecasting
B)Seasonal cycles
C)Historical cycles
D)Semiannual forecasting

Question 68

_____ deals with using knowledge about cycles,trends,and averages to forecast future events.

A)Time analysis
B)Time series
C)Time series analysis
D)Series analysis

Question 69

_____ is the action of separate agents that produces a greater effect than the sum of their individual actions.

A)Catalysis
B)Cycle harmonics
C)Synergy
D)Growth rate

Question 70

Much time and talent is needed to conceptualize the product,design its specifics,organize the process for making it,cost it out,pilot test it,and so forth.When the product is accepted,it is released for production and marketing.All of this takes place in the _____ stage.

A)growth
B)maturity
C)introduction
D)decline

Question 71

Marketing models for predicting sales (lacking a contract) deal with levels of uncertainty that make forecasts of _____ difficult,but not irrational.

A)demand volumes
B)market shares
C)revenues
D)all of the above

Question 72

_____ is responsible for using different pricing,advertising,and promotion activities during appropriate life cycle stages.

A)Management
B)Operations management
C)Marketing
D)Management information systems

Question 73

_____ is a stream of numbers that represent different values over time.

A)Extrapolation
B)Time series analysis
C)Time series
D)Cycle time

Question 74

_____ is describing future events and their probabilities of occurrence.

A)Growth
B)Forecasting
C)Demand
D)Statistical phenomena

Question 75

In organizations that are strongly integrated,operations managers participate in planning the evolution of both new and existing products.That evolution over time is called the product

A)life cycles.
B)synergy.
C)syzygy.
D)growth.

Question 76

_____ is the process of moving from observed data to the projected values of future points.

A)Time series
B)Extrapolation
C)Cycle time
D)Time series analysis

Question 77

Assume that in 2008 the quarterly demands were 10,30,20,and 40.This gives a yearly demand of 100 units.Further,assume that in 2009 the annual demand is expected to increase to 120 units.Then,the first quarter (1ˢᵗ Q) forecast adjustments would be

A)120(40/100) = 48.
B)120(20/100) = 24.
C)120(10/100) = 12.
D)all of the above

Question 78

If the time series shows a linear trend,there is a(n) _____ of the numbers.

A)constant rate of change
B)historical forecast rate of change
C)estimated rate of change
D)seasonal rate of change

Question 79

_____ is the point when maximum tidal pull is exerted because the planets and the moon have lined up to support each other's gravitational forces.

A)Syzygy
B)Synergy
C)Growth rate point of inflection
D)Resource maximization

Question 80

_____ procedures are used by the line managers of the organization to carry out the strategic plans.

A)Synergistic
B)Syzygial
C)Tactical
D)Strategic