Corey and Trevor are playing a coin-tossing game where each player, in turn, tosses a fair coin consecutively ten times. The winner of the game is the player who tosses the most consecutive tails. Corey decides to go first and tosses tails five times in a row. Ricky and Julian are observing the game, and Ricky whispers the following to Julian before Corey attempts the sixth toss: "The probability of Corey tossing tails has to be greater than 75% because he is on a roll!" Ricky's statement is an example of the:

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Ricky's statement is an example of the hot-hand fallacy, which mistakenly assumes that a player's likelihood of success is increased because of previous successes (streaks or "being on a roll"). In reality, each coin toss is independent of previous tosses and has a 50% chance of resulting in tails regardless of previous outcomes.

Corey and Trevor Are Playing a Coin-Tossing Game Where Each