Disco Fever is randomly found in one half of one percent of the general population.Testing a swatch of clothing for the presence of polyester is 99% effective in detecting the presence of this disease.The test also yields a false-positive in 4% of the cases where the disease is not present.What is the probability that the disease is not present if the test result is positive?
A)0.8894
B)0.9900
C)0.9500
D)0.9763

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Using Bayes' theorem, the probability that the disease is not present given a positive test result is calculated as follows: P(Disease not present | Positive) = P(Positive | Disease not present) * P(Disease not present) / P(Positive). This results in approximately 0.8894.

Disco Fever Is Randomly Found in One Half of One