After his football team wins a close game on a very risky play that rarely works, Greg says, "I KNEW that play would win the game for us." In reality, he wasn't at all sure it would work until after the play was completed. His thinking is an example of ________.
A) hindsight bias
B) counterfactual thinking
C) framing
D) the confirmation bias

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Hindsight bias refers to the tendency to view events as more predictable than they really are, after they have occurred. In this scenario, Greg believed that he knew the risky play would work, but in reality, he only believed it after the play succeeded. This is a classic example of hindsight bias. Counterfactual thinking involves imagining different outcomes to past events and is not relevant to this scenario. Framing refers to the way that information is presented and the effect it has on decision making, which is not relevant here either. The confirmation bias refers to selectively searching for and interpreting information in a way that supports preexisting beliefs or expectations, which also does not apply in this case.

After His Football Team Wins a Close Game on a Very