Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 120,126,110,and 130 (listed from oldest to most recent).Develop a forecast of enrollment next semester using exponential smoothing with an alpha = 0.2.Assume that an initial forecast for the first semester was 120 (so the forecast and the actual were the same).
A)118.96
B)121.17
C)130
D)120
E)None of the above

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.2:
Forecast for 2nd semester = 0.2(120) + (1 - 0.2)(126) = 121.6
Forecast for 3rd semester = 0.2(121.6) + (1 - 0.2)(110) = 118.88
Forecast for 4th semester = 0.2(118.88) + (1 - 0.2)(130) = 122.304
Forecast for next semester = 0.2(122.304) + (1 - 0.2)(130) = 121.17
Therefore, the best choice is B, as it is the closest to the forecast for next semester using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.2.

Enrollment in a Particular Class for the Last Four Semesters