Roger knows someone whose brother received a very lucrative contract to play professional basketball for the National Basketball Association (NBA).With this success story in mind,Roger ignores the statistics that indicate a very low probability that anyone will make it to the NBA and overestimates his own chances of making it.What concept does this scenario best illustrate?

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The scenario best illustrates the base-rate fallacy where Roger ignores the statistical likelihood of his chances of making it to the NBA and instead focuses on a singular success story of someone he knows.

Roger Knows Someone Whose Brother Received a Very Lucrative Contract