A time series for the years 1996-2001 is shown below.
$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & y _ { \mathbf { t } } \\\hline 1996 & 125 \\1997 & 115 \\1998 & 120 \\1999 & 126 \\2000 & 140 \\2001 & 122 \\\hline\end{array}$ The forecasts for the years 2002-2004 with three smoothing constant values are:
With w = .2,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 125.60
With w = .5,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.75
With w = .6,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.55
Compare each of the three sets of forecasts with the actual values for 2002-2004 given in the accompanying table,and compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD)for each model.Which model is best?
$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & y _ { \mathbf { t } } \\\hline 2002 & 130 \\2003 & 125 \\2004 & 135 \\\hline\end{array}$

Question

A time series for the years 1996-2001 is shown below.

\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & y _ { \mathbf { t } } \\\hline 1996 & 125 \\1997 & 115 \\1998 & 120 \\1999 & 126 \\2000 & 140 \\2001 & 122 \\\hline\end{array}

The forecasts for the years 2002-2004 with three smoothing constant values are:
With w = .2,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 125.60
With w = .5,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.75
With w = .6,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.55
Compare each of the three sets of forecasts with the actual values for 2002-2004 given in the accompanying table,and compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD)for each model.Which model is best?

\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & y _ { \mathbf { t } } \\\hline 2002 & 130 \\2003 & 125 \\2004 & 135 \\\hline\end{array}

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The Answer of A time series for the years 1996-2001 is shown below. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & y _ { \mathbf { t } } \ \hline 1996 & 125 \ 1997 & 115 \ 1998 & 120 \ 1999 & 126 \ 2000 & 140 \ 2001 & 122 \ \hline \end{array}$$ The forecasts for the years 2002-2004 with three smoothing constant values are: With w = .2,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 125.60 With w = .5,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.75 With w = .6,F₂₀₀₂ = F₂₀₀₃ = F₂₀₀₄ = 126.55 Compare each of the three sets of forecasts with the actual values for 2002-2004 given in the accompanying table,and compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD)for each model.Which model is best? $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & y _ { \mathbf { t } } \ \hline 2002 & 130 \ 2003 & 125 \ 2004 & 135 \ \hline \end{array}$$

A Time Series for the Years 1996-2001 Is Shown Below