Throughout a National Football League season, fans of all teams guessed on average (across teams and weeks) that their own team stood about a 2 in 3 chance of winning their next game. This best illustrated

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This scenario illustrates illusory optimism, which is the tendency for individuals to overestimate their likelihood of experiencing positive outcomes and underestimating their likelihood of experiencing negative outcomes. In this case, fans are overly optimistic about their team's chances of winning, despite the fact that the outcome is uncertain and there are many factors that could influence the game.

Throughout a National Football League Season, Fans of All Teams