Most organic food stores sell vegan snacks, and about half of all coffee shops sell vegan snacks. There are only a few organic food stores but there are hundreds of coffee shops in the city. If you assume that you should go to an organic food store to find a vegan snack, what type of error have you made?

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The person is ignoring the base rates, or the fact that there are many more coffee shops than organic food stores, and assuming that organic food stores are the only option for finding vegan snacks. This is a common mistake known as neglecting the base rate or base rate fallacy.

Most Organic Food Stores Sell Vegan Snacks, and About Half