You are eating a meal at an open-air restaurant a few hundred yards from the ocean. You hear a constant whooshing sound. According to the likelihood principle, what would you assume caused the noise?

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The likelihood principle states that we should choose the explanation that is most likely given the available evidence. In this case, the fact that the restaurant is a few hundred yards from the ocean suggests that the whooshing sound is most likely caused by waves crashing on the beach. While an earthquake or a series of airplanes landing are both possible explanations, they are less likely given the context of the situation. Traffic a few miles away is also a possibility, but the fact that the sound is constant suggests that it is something more predictable and regular, such as waves.

You Are Eating a Meal at an Open-Air Restaurant a Few