Physicians often say, "When you hear hoof beats behind you, think horses, not zebras." In terms of this chapter, this idea most closely resembles __________.

Question

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The idea of thinking of horses instead of zebras when hearing hoof beats refers to using base rate information, which means relying on general probabilities or likelihoods rather than rare or unlikely events. In this case, horses are the more common and probable explanation for the sound, while zebras are a rarer and less likely explanation.

Physicians Often Say, "When You Hear Hoof Beats Behind You