An automobile finance company analyzed a sample of recent automobile loans to try to determine key factors in identifying borrowers who would be likely to default on their auto loan. The response variable Default equals 1 if the borrower defaulted during the term of the loan and 0 otherwise. The predictor variable AutoDebt% was the ratio (expressed as a percent) of the required loan payments to the borrower's take-home income at the time of purchase. JobTime was the number of years the borrower had worked at their current job at the time of purchase. CredScore was the borrower's credit score at the time of purchase. Below is part of the classification tree the finance company derived from the data collected in the study. Assume they classify those with a default probability estimate of at least .5 as Defaulters. A potential borrower with a credit score of 717 who has been at their current job for 3 years is considering applying for a loan. They do not yet have a particular loan amount in mind. Based on this classification tree, the best estimate that this loan applicant would default would be ________.
A) .000
B) .347
C) .552
D) .867
E) 1.000

Question

An automobile finance company analyzed a sample of recent automobile loans to try to determine key factors in identifying borrowers who would be likely to default on their auto loan. The response variable Default equals 1 if the borrower defaulted during the term of the loan and 0 otherwise. The predictor variable AutoDebt% was the ratio (expressed as a percent) of the required loan payments to the borrower's take-home income at the time of purchase. JobTime was the number of years the borrower had worked at their current job at the time of purchase. CredScore was the borrower's credit score at the time of purchase. Below is part of the classification tree the finance company derived from the data collected in the study. Assume they classify those with a default probability estimate of at least .5 as Defaulters.  A potential borrower with a credit score of 717 who has been at their current job for 3 years is considering applying for a loan. They do not yet have a particular loan amount in mind. Based on this classification tree, the best estimate that this loan applicant would default would be ________.
A) .000 
B) .347 
C) .552 
D) .867 
E) 1.000

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

This customer would have CredScore < 724 and JobTime < 4. Since the loan amount (and therefore the percentage of their income required for loan payments) is unknown, their estimated probability of default would be found before the split based on AutoDebt%.

An Automobile Finance Company Analyzed a Sample of Recent Automobile