Using Okun's rule of thumb, if trend growth is 3 percent and the unemployment rate rises by 2 percentage points, output would be expected to have:

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Okun's rule of thumb suggests that for every 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, a country's GDP will be roughly an additional 2 percentage points lower than its potential GDP. Therefore, a 2 percentage point rise in unemployment would imply a 4 percentage point decrease in output relative to trend growth, which is 3 percent, resulting in a net fall of 1 percentage point.

Using Okun's Rule of Thumb, If Trend Growth Is 3