According to Okun's rule of thumb, if trend growth is 3 percent, and unemployment decreases from 5 percent to 4 percent, income would be expected to:

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Okun's rule of thumb suggests that for every 1 percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate, real GDP is expected to increase by about 2 percentage points above trend growth. With trend growth at 3 percent and unemployment decreasing by 1 percentage point, income (or real GDP) would be expected to rise by 5 percent (3 percent trend growth plus 2 percent from the decrease in unemployment).

According to Okun's Rule of Thumb, If Trend Growth Is