You started an online business three weeks ago. Thus far, you have averaged 10 sales a day, which is one sale for every five hits. You are now considering giving up your day job and becoming a full-time online retailer. You have calculated the amount of income you can earn based on 10 sales a day and know that level of income would support you in a comfortable fashion. The belief that you will have 10 sales per day on average if this becomes your full-time occupation is based on which one of the following?
A) Mental accounting.
B) Anchoring and adjustment.
C) Law of small numbers.
D) Bubble and crash theory.
E) Confirmation bias.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The belief that you will have 10 sales per day on average based on just three weeks of data is based on the law of small numbers, which is the fallacy of drawing conclusions from a small sample size as if it were larger.

You Started an Online Business Three Weeks Ago