Suppose that a doctor decides that a patient has a cold, rather than a much rarer disease, Disease X. She decides the disease is a cold, even though one symptom is fairly typical of Disease X and fairly atypical of a cold. This doctor is

Question

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The doctor is considering the base rate (prevalence) of the diseases, recognizing that a cold is much more common than Disease X, and thus more likely to be the cause of the patient's symptoms despite one atypical symptom.

Suppose That a Doctor Decides That a Patient Has a Cold