A manager of an inclusive sports programme in schools was concerned about the lack of girls being recruited on to the programme. There were thirty places on the programme and fifty children had applied, of which only ten were girls. Theoretically, all the children in the participating schools have an equal probability of being recruited as they all match the selection criteria, i.e. they are children at a participating school. However, the manager has data that suggests that boys are more likely to join school based sports programmes than girls based on data from across the school sports programme nationally and from within her own programme historically. However the manager has heavily promoted this initiative, specifically targeting girls and therefore wants to determine the probability that still fewer girls than boys will join. What formula could she use to determine this probability?
A) Bayes' theorem.
B) NHST
C) Pearson's r
D) Cronbach's Alpha

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Bayes' theorem is a useful formula for determining conditional probabilities, which is what the manager in this scenario is interested in. Specifically, she wants to know the probability of still fewer girls than boys joining the programme, given the data she has about boys being more likely to join. Bayes' theorem allows her to calculate this probability by taking into account both the prior probability (i.e. the probability of girls joining based on past data) and the likelihood of the new data (i.e. the fact that boys are more likely to join based on national and historical data). NHST, Pearson's r, and Cronbach's alpha are not appropriate formulas for this scenario.

A Manager of an Inclusive Sports Programme in Schools Was