When Answering the Questions Below, Refer to the Following Table

When answering the questions below, refer to the following table and related data.
Project Cash Flow Tree From a New Project
$$\begin{array} { r r r } \text { Year 1 } & \text { Year 2 } & \text { Year 3 } \\120.52 & 155.67 & 222.64 \\65.24 & \mathbf { 8 4 . 2 7 } & 120.52 \\& 45.62 & \mathbf { 6 5 . 2 4 } \\& & 35.32\end{array}$$ Effective annual risk free rate = 4.5% Expected market return = 10%
Cash flow beta = 1.4
The true probability of the high cash flow in a given period is 52.0%.
-What is the risk neutral probability of an upward movement in the project cash flows during the first year of operations?

A) 35.6%
B) 40.3%
C) 48.1%
D) 59.7%