If positive autocorrelation exists, the exponential smoothing constant should be close to zero to track changes in the time series mean.

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Quizplus · Accepted Answer

If positive autocorrelation exists, it means that there is a predictable pattern in the data and the exponential smoothing constant should be higher to take that into account and make more accurate forecasts. A value closer to 1 would be more appropriate in this case.

If Positive Autocorrelation Exists, the Exponential Smoothing Constant Should Be