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Klott Company Encounters Significant Uncertainty with Its Sales Volume and Price

Question 85

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Klott Company encounters significant uncertainty with its sales volume and price in its primary product.The firm uses scenario analysis in order to determine an expected NPV, which it then uses in its budget.The base case, best case, and worst case scenarios and probabilities are provided in the table below.What is Klott's expected NPV, standard deviation of NPV, and coefficient of variation of NPV?  Probability of  Unit Sales  SalesNPV Outcome  Volume  Price  (In Thousands)  Worst case 0.306,000$3,600$6,000 Base case 0.5010,0004,200+13,000 Best case 0.2013,0004.400+28,000\begin{array}{ccccc}&\text { Probability of } & \text { Unit Sales } &\text { Sales} &\text {NPV}\\&\underline{\text { Outcome }} &\underline{ \text { Volume } }&\underline{\text { Price } }& \underline{\text { (In Thousands) }}\\\text { Worst case } & 0.30 & 6,000 & \$ 3,600 & -\$ 6,000 \\\text { Base case } & 0.50 & 10,000 & 4,200 & +13,000 \\\text { Best case } & 0.20 & 13,000 & 4.400 & +28,000\end{array}
a.  Expected NPV =$35,000;σNPV=17,500;CVNPV=2.0\text { Expected NPV }=\$ 35,000 ; \sigma_{\mathrm{NPV}}=17,500 ; \quad \mathrm{CV}_{\mathrm{NPV}}=2.0 \text {. }
b. Expected NPV =$35,000;σNPV=11,667;CVNPV=0.33 =\$ 35,000 ; \quad \sigma_{\mathrm{NPV}}=11,667 ; \quad \mathrm{CV}_{\mathrm{NPV}}=0.33
c. Expected NPV =$10,300;σKPV=12,083;CVKPV=1.17 =\$ 10,300 ; \sigma_{\mathrm{KPV}}=12,083 ; \quad \mathrm{CV}_{\mathrm{KPV}}=1.17
d. Expected NPV =$13,900;σNPV=8,476;CVNPV=0.61 =\$ 13,900 ; \sigma_{\mathrm{NPV}}=8,476 ; \mathrm{CV}_{\mathrm{NPV}}=0.61 .
e. Expected NPV =$10,300;σNPV =13,900;CVNPV=1.35 =\$ 10,300 ; \sigma_{\text {NPV }}=13,900 ; \mathrm{CV}_{\mathrm{NPV}}=1.35

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