Every year it seems as though last season's baseball rookie of the year fails to live up to expectations for his sophomore season.What might explain this phenomenon?
A) regression to the mean
B) overestimation of effect size
C) standard error of the estimation
D) proportionate reduction in error

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Regression to the mean suggests that extreme performances (such as winning the Rookie of the Year award) are likely to be followed by less extreme performances the following year. This is because the performance was likely influenced by some degree of luck or random variation that is not sustainable in the long term. As a result, it is common for rookies of the year to perform worse in their second year as they revert back to their true average level of performance.

Every Year It Seems as Though Last Season's Baseball Rookie