TABLE 16-6
the Number of Cases of Merlot Wine Sold

TABLE 16-6
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows
$$\begin{array} { c c } \underline{\text { Year }} & \underline{ \text { Cases of Wine }} \\1991 & 270 \\1992 & 356 \\1993 & 398 \\1994 & 456 \\1995 & 358 \\1996 & 500 \\1997 & 410 \\1998 & 376\end{array}$$
-A second-order autoregressive model for average mortgage rate is: Rate_i = - 2.0 + 1.8(Rate)_i-1 - 0.5 (Rate)_i-2^.
If the average mortgage rate in 1998 was 7.0, and in 1997 was 6.4, the forecast for 2000 is_____
.