TABLE 16-11
Business Closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 1989 $$\begin{array} { l l } 1993 & 10 \\1994 & 11 \\1995 & 13 \\1996 & 19 \\1997 & 24 \\1998 & 35\end{array}$$

TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 1989 to 1994 were:
$$\begin{array} { l l } 1993 & 10 \\1994 & 11 \\1995 & 13 \\1996 & 19 \\1997 & 24 \\1998 & 35\end{array}$$ Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:

$\begin{array} { |l c| }\hline\text {SUMMARY OUTPUT-2 nd Order}\\\text {Model}\\&\text {Coefficients}\\ \text { Intercept } & - 5.77 \\ \text { XVariable 1 } & 0.80 \\ \text { XVariable 2 } & 1.14\\\\\text {SUMMARY OUTPUT- 1st Order}\\\text {Model}\\&\text {Coefficients}\\\text {Intercept}&- 4.16\\\underline { \text {X Variable1 }} &1.59\\\hline \end{array}$

-Referring to Table 16-11, the value of the MAD for the first-order autoregressive model is_____